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Post by johnoster on Nov 15, 2021 21:43:11 GMT
12 teams in the playoffs, 3 go through.
If we get a draw tomorrow and Turkey win by less than 4 goals, we have a home playoff semi.
Potential opponents would be: Poland, Turkey, Finland, North Macedonia, Czechia, or Austria.
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Post by welshrover on Nov 15, 2021 21:43:12 GMT
Sorry I think you misunderstood, I realise 12 are in the play offs, how many of the 12 go to the World Cup? |
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Post by welwyn on Nov 15, 2021 21:44:23 GMT
Sorry I think you misunderstood, I realise 12 are in the play offs, how many of the 12 go to the World Cup? 3 |
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Post by welshrover on Nov 15, 2021 21:44:50 GMT
So can someone clarify how many teams actually go through from these play offs? Three I think, the teams are drawn into blocks of four with one off game semi finals and final, so even if we are seeded the chances are we would probably face Italy or Portugal in the final. I’m reminded of the Euro 2004 play off draw which was unseeded but, miraculously, the strongest teams were all drawn against the weakest. Basically, I wouldn’t put any money on Italy and Portugal being drawn in the same group of 4. Yes I recall that "open draw" |
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Post by jackanapes on Nov 15, 2021 21:45:22 GMT
Does anybody still think we should have done better against Switzerland in the summer? They are one hell of a good team.
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Post by iot on Nov 15, 2021 21:46:01 GMT
I think we're still good for a seeded spot with a draw after Hungary's win tonight. We would have the following six teams below us:
1. Czech as NL qualifiers
2. Austria as NL qualifiers
3. Finland - 11pts
4. North Macedonia - 12pts
5. Poland - 14pts
6. Turkey - 12pts and just +1gd if you take away results against Gibraltar. They still have Montenegro to play, so would need to win that game by 4 or 5. Norway can also reach 15pts, but are on just +2 gd minus gibraltar and have the Dutch away, so would need to win that game by 3 or 4 goals
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Post by erasedcitizen on Nov 15, 2021 21:46:35 GMT
We Global on Twitter. The one to watch. I don’t know if Italy are seeded Italy, Russia, Scotland and Portugal are all guaranteed to be seeded. Sweden and Poland occupy the other 2 spots but both can be caught by ourselves, Norway or Turkey. |
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Post by erasedcitizen on Nov 15, 2021 21:48:20 GMT
If we're seeded, the dream draw has to be North Macedonia in the semi final, with Scotland and Finland on the other side of the draw.
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Post by iot on Nov 15, 2021 21:51:28 GMT
So can someone clarify how many teams actually go through from these play offs? Three I think, the teams are drawn into blocks of four with one off game semi finals and final, so even if we are seeded the chances are we would probably face Italy or Portugal in the final. I’m reminded of the Euro 2004 play off draw which was unseeded but, miraculously, the strongest teams were all drawn against the weakest. Basically, I wouldn’t put any money on Italy and Portugal being drawn in the same group of 4. If there are four blocks and there are two world class sides in the playoffs, surely the chances of one landing in our bloc is 50/50 i.e. 2/4? This is really testing my arithmetic skills! |
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Post by johnoster on Nov 15, 2021 21:52:08 GMT
Three blocks not four.
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Post by conwy10 on Nov 15, 2021 21:54:00 GMT
Sorry I'm lost in all this seeding stuff and can't keep up with it. Do we have to win tomorrow now? If we are mathematically out of getting a home match does that turn tomorrow into a glorified friendly match?
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Post by fiveattheback on Nov 15, 2021 21:56:11 GMT
Sorry I'm lost in all this seeding stuff and can't keep up with it. Do we have to win tomorrow now? If we are mathematically out of getting a home match does that turn tomorrow into a glorified friendly match? A draw should get us seeded |
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Post by iot on Nov 15, 2021 22:00:30 GMT
Of course it is. Shit, odds are we will need to beat Portugal or Italy to qualify then. I would take Portugal over Italy, but the chances of us now qualifying are... slim |
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Post by hooky on Nov 15, 2021 22:01:15 GMT
How are the Scots always so lucky in qualifiers!
How many first team players did Denmark pick today? 3 or 4?
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Post by welshrover on Nov 15, 2021 22:04:01 GMT
How are the Scots always so lucky in qualifiers! How many first team players did Denmark pick today? 3 or 4? But to be fair isn't that we are hoping Belgium do tomorrow? |
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Post by morg on Nov 15, 2021 22:04:21 GMT
So by my maths a point will see us seeded unless Turkey beat Montenegro by 4.
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Post by quetzal on Nov 15, 2021 22:04:45 GMT
Wales draw. Turkey beat Montenegro away 3-0 and we still get seeded. A draw is enough for me
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Post by johnoster on Nov 15, 2021 22:05:44 GMT
Of course it is. Shit, odds are we will need to beat Portugal or Italy to qualify then. I would take Portugal over Italy, but the chances of us now qualifying are... slim It's a long time since I did odds at school, but it's not just a case of there being 3 finals with Italy and Portugal being in two of them? Italy and Portugal could be in the same block and end up playing each other in a final couldn't they? Obviously won't happen due to the way UEFA and football in general works, but worth a thought. |
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Post by robin1864 on Nov 15, 2021 22:06:37 GMT
Does anybody still think we should have done better against Switzerland in the summer? They are one hell of a good team. Bulgaria, Lithuania and Northern Ireland aren't exactly the best measures of Switzerland's strength. They're a well-organised mid-tier team, on par with Czechia and Austria. |
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Post by iot on Nov 15, 2021 22:08:28 GMT
Of course it is. Shit, odds are we will need to beat Portugal or Italy to qualify then. I would take Portugal over Italy, but the chances of us now qualifying are... slim It's a long time since I did odds at school, but it's not just a case of there being 3 finals with Italy and Portugal being in two of them? Italy and Portugal could be in the same block and end up playing each other in a final couldn't they? Obviously won't happen due to the way UEFA and football in general works, but worth a thought. Yeah, I don't know how to make that calculation to be honest! Any mathematicians on here? |
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Post by hooky on Nov 15, 2021 22:08:48 GMT
Get in there Hungary! So long as Turkey don't beat Montenegro by 4, a draw against Belgium is enough for a home tie. No pressure lads. Sunny side up - that 5-1 win over Belarus could prove so important Sunny side down - we score 1 goal versus Estonia over 2 games Please Belgium play like Denmark reserves did today! I am so worried about Morrell playing. A rocky defence is enough to worry about! |
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Post by erasedcitizen on Nov 15, 2021 22:09:53 GMT
Of course it is. Shit, odds are we will need to beat Portugal or Italy to qualify then. I would take Portugal over Italy, but the chances of us now qualifying are... slim 66% of us drawing at least one of them in our block if we're unseeded, that reduces to 40% if we're seeded. |
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Post by quetzal on Nov 15, 2021 22:10:31 GMT
Biggest disappointment is Italy and Portugal being there. It makes it that little bit more difficult.
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Post by welshrover on Nov 15, 2021 22:13:17 GMT
Biggest disappointment is Italy and Portugal being there. It makes it that little bit more difficult. And you can bet your Guatemalan bar they will get the easiest draw! |
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Post by iot on Nov 15, 2021 22:13:35 GMT
Of course it is. Shit, odds are we will need to beat Portugal or Italy to qualify then. I would take Portugal over Italy, but the chances of us now qualifying are... slim 66% of us drawing at least one of them in our block if we're unseeded, that reduces to 20% if we're seeded. How does that work? I'm talking about the chances of us facing them in the finals or semi final. Surely the chances of them being in our block remains the same if we're seeded or unseeded? |
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Post by manulike on Nov 15, 2021 22:13:39 GMT
Any good web sites for Arabic lessons?
#Inshallah
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Post by hooky on Nov 15, 2021 22:14:02 GMT
If we can get a draw then all the second seeded teams are well beatable
I would be most worried about the Czech Republic and we have proven we can compete against them
Like Scotland and Northern Ireland showed us tonight - if Belgium beat us by talent the fine, but no gifting them goals. There is need to make dreadful mistakes. Results are always possible so long as you don't gift the game to the opposition.
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Post by insertname on Nov 15, 2021 22:15:48 GMT
Three I think, the teams are drawn into blocks of four with one off game semi finals and final, so even if we are seeded the chances are we would probably face Italy or Portugal in the final. I’m reminded of the Euro 2004 play off draw which was unseeded but, miraculously, the strongest teams were all drawn against the weakest. Basically, I wouldn’t put any money on Italy and Portugal being drawn in the same group of 4. If there are four blocks and there are two world class sides in the playoffs, surely the chances of one landing in our bloc is 50/50 i.e. 2/4? This is really testing my arithmetic skills! Christ, don’t go throwing maths at me ffs 😂 I hate to be all conspiracy theory, but it feels like we’ve seen it all before (as per the Euro 2004 unseeded draw) and uefa/fifa won’t want the big FAs to miss a World Cup so taking the maths out of it I will be very surprised to see a draw that jeopardises those teams. |
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Post by quetzal on Nov 15, 2021 22:17:20 GMT
Biggest disappointment is Italy and Portugal being there. It makes it that little bit more difficult. And you can bet your Guatemalan bar they will get the easiest draw! Fifa will want Italy and Ronaldo there but big teams have gone out before. |
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Post by quetzal on Nov 15, 2021 22:18:31 GMT
No way are Turkey beating Montenegro by 4.
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