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Post by allezlesrouges on Nov 18, 2021 19:49:56 GMT
I think all teams that have got into the playoffs are no pushovers, however, North Macedonia are probably the best draw in terms of number of their players that are regular in the top 5 leagues. They are undoubtedly an organised squad on the rise though We should not underestimate them, but they do probably pose less danger to us than other sides. The danger men are Alioski (12 international goals, Bardhi (experienced attacking mid at Levante), Elmas (young exciting attacking mid at Napoli). They also have their keeper playing in the Spanish top flight, and their captain Ristovski who is a solid full back Elmas is suspended North Macedonia will be the one everyone wants, I'd be happy with Austria, Turkey or the Czechs though Good news |
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Post by iot on Nov 18, 2021 19:55:07 GMT
Austria still have Alaba, who is a brilliant player, and helps them to control games. I thought they played us off the park in both games in the WC18 campaign. On the balance of play, I think they deserved to win both matches, god knows how we got 4pts from them. I guess they may be lacking up front? That’s not how I remember the first game, we lead twice and really it was only Arnautovic that got them a draw, I recall he was unplayable to the point he had a personal vendetta against us, take him out of their team and they would have been half as good. The return fixture was rather like the Czech home game, we had to throw the kitchen sink at them and so they were able to create plenty of chances and in the end it was somewhat fortunate that we came out on top. Yes, we did lead twice but it was against the run of play on both occasions in my view. I think we had a fairly fluky goal from a long throw for the first one and then the Allen screamer for the second? I remember at the time that a few people on here thought we'd played well, but they were definitely on top. I've just had a quick look at the match report after writing that, which is consistent with what I thought at the time: 'despite falling behind to Allen's superb swerving left-footed half-volley, Austria were level five minutes later as Chris Gunter failed to track Arnautovic's run from a lofted David Alaba pass, allowing the Stoke winger to head past Wayne Hennessey. The hosts took charge from that point and, although Wales reclaimed the lead, Allen's loose pass and a poor touch from Chester allowed Arnautovic to run clear and clip the ball over Hennessey. A draw was the least Austria's attacking efforts warranted and, for Wales, a point away from home against one of their primary rivals for Group D's top spot was reward for a valiant performance.' And a look at the stats: Possession 62:38 for them and twice as many shots + shots on target. We got away with one there! |
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Post by iot on Nov 18, 2021 20:06:58 GMT
Having said all that, I would certainly prefer Austria to some of the others. My preference would be:
1. N Macedonia - certainly not a walkover, it would likely be an extremely cagey game and I can see why people are nervous about that, but we would likely pull off a moment of class to make the difference as we saw against NI in the Euros. Better than all the other options, I would give us a 70-75% chance of winning
2. Ukraine - they were extremely underwhelming in the Euros. Yarmolenko is probably their main threat, but he's been struggling at club level and is probably not quite the same player as he was a couple of years ago. Other than they there's nothing to fear. Chances of us winning at 65-70%
3. Austria - technically better than us so we would probably have to cede possession and hit them on the break, which might actually not be a bad thing given how our game is currently developing. 60% chance of winning
4. Czech - we blew them away in Prague and they were extremely jammy to get a point, butI think they underestimated us massively. They won't makes the same mistake twice. We didn't deserve to beat them at home and they were great at the Euros. I would still fancy our chances though - 60%
5. Turkey - they were an absolute mess at the Euros and Page won the tactical battle in our game. I think they would see this game as the perfect chance for some revenge, they would be far more wear of our threats and would approach it differently. They do have some excellent players across the park so, one to avoid for me. Chances of winning - 55%
6. Poland - they have Lewandowski and solid players around him. They had two close games against England recently. They're probably a better side than us. Chances of us winning - 45%
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Post by rioonamazy on Nov 18, 2021 20:14:33 GMT
What relevance has a game 4 years ago got to do with it. My point is they are on the decline the very definition of a team of what was to was is. Poor campaign in euros. Finished below scotland and Israel. I'm not concerned about a LB/CB world class or not.
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Post by jbt95 on Nov 18, 2021 20:24:35 GMT
What relevance has a game 4 years ago got to do with it. My point is they are on the decline the very definition of a team of what was to was is. Poor campaign in euros. Finished below scotland and Israel. I'm not concerned about a LB/CB world class or not. Took Italy to ET as far as I remember. Hardly a bad euros. |
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Post by nathan0881 on Nov 18, 2021 21:37:21 GMT
Might be jumping the gun but how will the final off both semi finals be decided ?
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Post by cymro on Nov 18, 2021 21:46:34 GMT
Random draw next Friday.
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Post by insertname on Nov 18, 2021 21:53:43 GMT
"Random" draw next Friday. Fixed that for you  |
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Post by dai on Nov 18, 2021 21:57:58 GMT
Two things that are guaranteed:
Portugal and Italy won't be in the same path.
One of them will be in our path.
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Post by insertname on Nov 18, 2021 21:59:44 GMT
I’ve done two mock draws with paper and hat. First time Czech R and Italy at home if we go through. 2nd time Ukraine and Russia away. So hard to qualify Would bite your hand off for that You'd be wasting your time because it can´t happen  |
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Post by insertname on Nov 18, 2021 22:40:43 GMT
Two things that are guaranteed: Portugal and Italy won't be in the same path. One of them will be in our path. Yep. In direct contrast to the UK, of all the problems UEFA face this winter keeping their balls warm won't be one of them |
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Post by welshrover on Nov 18, 2021 22:42:41 GMT
If we are away in the final you will need to get your ETIAS if we play a team in the Schengen Zone.
Comes into play 2022.
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Post by barneycat1 on Nov 18, 2021 23:00:02 GMT
It comes into play at the end of 2022
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Post by mrpicton79 on Nov 19, 2021 2:05:15 GMT
So if I've got this right whoever draws Ukraine in the semi is almost guaranteed to get Italy or Portugal drawn in their path..?
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Post by insertname on Nov 19, 2021 3:00:32 GMT
So if I've got this right whoever draws Ukraine in the semi is almost guaranteed to get Italy or Portugal drawn in their path..? Ukraine are only kept apart from Russia in the semi final (afaik). Other than that the draw should be completely random so our chances of meeting Italy or Portugal have no relevance to the team that we draw for the semi final. |
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Post by mrpicton79 on Nov 19, 2021 3:21:15 GMT
So if I've got this right whoever draws Ukraine in the semi is almost guaranteed to get Italy or Portugal drawn in their path..? Ukraine are only kept apart from Russia in the semi final (afaik). Other than that the draw should be completely random so our chances of meeting Italy or Portugal have no relevance to the team that we draw for the semi final. If the information in the wiki page posted earlier ^^ is correct then Ukraine and Russia are unable to be drawn in the same play-off path, as they are considered "prohibited clashes". That surely includes any potential final too. |
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Post by quetzal on Nov 19, 2021 4:04:36 GMT
Ukraine are only kept apart from Russia in the semi final (afaik). Other than that the draw should be completely random so our chances of meeting Italy or Portugal have no relevance to the team that we draw for the semi final. If the information in the wiki page posted earlier ^^ is correct then Ukraine and Russia are unable to be drawn in the same play-off path, as they are considered "prohibited clashes". That surely includes any potential final too. It should be played behind closed doors. FIFA/UEFA have opened a can of worms on that one |
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Post by walesgolfmadrid on Nov 19, 2021 8:18:09 GMT
So if I've got this right whoever draws Ukraine in the semi is almost guaranteed to get Italy or Portugal drawn in their path..? It's more likely, but by no means almost guaranteed. If we drew Ukraine in the semi-final, we'd have a 50% chance of getting Italy or Portugal as opposed to a 40% chance. Non-seeded teams have an 80% chance of drawing one of Italy or Portugal. |
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Post by walesgolfmadrid on Nov 19, 2021 8:24:08 GMT
Randomly simulated a draw, the top line of each path would host the final.
Scotland v Turkey
Wales. v Poland
Portugal. v Austria
Russia. v North Macedonia
Italy. v Ukraine
Sweden. v Czech Republic
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Post by cadno on Nov 19, 2021 8:26:46 GMT
12 becomes 6... and if we make it to the final we'll have 5 teams we can face, you'd imagine Portugal and Italy are bound to be 2 of them.
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Post by insertname on Nov 19, 2021 10:31:38 GMT
Ukraine are only kept apart from Russia in the semi final (afaik). Other than that the draw should be completely random so our chances of meeting Italy or Portugal have no relevance to the team that we draw for the semi final. If the information in the wiki page posted earlier ^^ is correct then Ukraine and Russia are unable to be drawn in the same play-off path, as they are considered "prohibited clashes". That surely includes any potential final too. Hmm…there has to be better ways of dealing with dangerous fixtures than making crooked draws which hurts everyone else. Like quetzal said make them play behind closed doors in the final should they get there. Uefa might as well just go the whole hog now and formally announce that Italy and Portugal playing each other is prohibited and we can all play around them too. |
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Post by cogancoronation31 on Nov 19, 2021 13:25:15 GMT
UEFA & FIFA will both want Italy and Portugal, come hell or high water, to make it through to the World Cup.
We MUST absolutely avoid either of them - home or away - in our play-off final, if we are fortunate enough to get through our home play-off S/F (against N. Macedonia or Ukraine, hopefully!)
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Post by insertname on Nov 19, 2021 13:51:24 GMT
UEFA & FIFA will both want Italy and Portugal, come hell or high water, to make it through to the World Cup. We MUST absolutely avoid either of them - home or away - in our play-off final, if we are fortunate enough to get through our home play-off S/F (against N. Macedonia or Ukraine, hopefully!) If you read the above then you won’t be wanting the Ukraine as the fact they can’t be drawn in Russia’s path means that drawing them in the semi final increases your chances of playing Portugal or Italy. I’d rather draw Poland and avoid a Portugal/Italy final personally |
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Post by welshrover on Nov 19, 2021 17:02:54 GMT
These easiest answer would be for Wales to declare war against all the countries in the play offs apart from North Macedonia and Sweden 😀
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Post by saints19 on Nov 19, 2021 17:26:15 GMT
These easiest answer would be for Wales to declare war against all the countries in the play offs apart from North Macedonia and Sweden 😀 Who's in charge of arming the sheep? |
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Post by welshrover on Nov 19, 2021 21:24:55 GMT
Just read a headline that FIFA are listening to suggestions of wiping the yellow cards for the play offs.
Suits Scotland (on 7) the most.
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Post by insertname on Nov 19, 2021 22:35:14 GMT
Just read a headline that FIFA are listening to suggestions of wiping the yellow cards for the play offs. Suits Scotland (on 7) the most. I’d argue it suits us the most because at Moore’s current burn rate he is nailed on to miss the final should we get there! |
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Post by quetzal on Nov 19, 2021 22:41:57 GMT
Just read a headline that FIFA are listening to suggestions of wiping the yellow cards for the play offs. Suits Scotland (on 7) the most. I’d argue it suits us the most because at Moore’s current burn rate he is nailed on to miss the final should we get there! Just for Kieffer Moore like you say it suits us. Where would we be without him. |
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Post by insertname on Nov 20, 2021 0:59:33 GMT
I’d argue it suits us the most because at Moore’s current burn rate he is nailed on to miss the final should we get there! Just for Kieffer Moore like you say it suits us. Where would we be without him. I have my doubts we’d have got to the Euros and got the NL play off. Most of his goals have won us games or snatched draws. Outside of Kieffer and Bale who else scores at such a regular rate? No-one really and even then Bale had a dry spell for a while. |
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Post by hooky on Nov 20, 2021 10:03:08 GMT
I am stunned if they overturn that - that just never happens. Why not for that EURO 2015 semi  Scotland must have great lobbyists! I agree its a bit unfair (8 vs 10 games) but the rules are the rules and you should not rewrite them at the end. We could draw Scotland in the final if we get there and we are just losing Morrell so far. Not sure we should be backing Scotland's appeals! |
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Scotland must have great lobbyists!