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Post by manulike on Nov 26, 2021 18:13:55 GMT
Can FIFA quickly tell the official cup engraver to get hold of the letter "W" ... Looks like he might need it next year!
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Post by conwy10 on Nov 26, 2021 18:14:17 GMT
No ones underestimating anyone. It's excitement due to a kind draw.
When the squads announced we'll all worry we'll lose before the match, question Ramseys commitment, worry about Bale's fitness, say that Page's tactics will let us down, question why Morrell is in the squad when he's not first team at Luton, wonder why Doidge hasn't been called up and everything will be right with the world once again.
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Post by allezlesrouges on Nov 26, 2021 18:24:02 GMT
I think we can both celebrate the draw and equally say each game from here on is a 50-50. It's worth celebrating this fact because we could have had a 50-50 game follow by a 90-10 game against Italy or Portugal. Two 50-50 games at home is the best we could have hoped for IMO That being said we don't even need to think about Scotland vs Ukraine. Yes I would prefer Ukraine but I'd take either of them. The important thing is we focus on Austria and do the business You do realise it won't be us on this forum playing, right?  Hahah, no I know. But I remember Coleman saying the media frenzy around the England game in the Euros had an impact on how our players played - our worst performance at the tournament - so I'm keen to keep a lid on where possible |
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Post by saints19 on Nov 26, 2021 18:36:37 GMT
Trash talk already beginning on the Scottish forum. Some Scots are overconfident as usual. It happened before the 4-0 under Vogts, it happened before the 3-0 under Burley, and it happened before we beat them home and away under Levein. I'm not saying we'd win if we played them in the final, but seriously, you'd think they'd have learned their lesson by now Gordon Strachan was in charge for the March 2013 game in Glasgow. You are right - didn't do them much good (although they ended that campaign well) |
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Post by erasedcitizen on Nov 26, 2021 18:38:40 GMT
So horny, I'm horny horny horny!
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Post by saints19 on Nov 26, 2021 19:45:07 GMT
So horny, I'm horny horny horny! Must have been all the playing around with the balls during the draw |
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Post by insertname on Nov 26, 2021 19:57:03 GMT
"Football fans in fighting talk shocker". It will be just as bad from Wales fans. But that's the nature of the beast when a British cup tie manifests itself. I just hope the players knuckle down, get the job done and don't get sucked into the circus. Do the talking on the pitch, first against Austria and then hopefully in the final. I'm not sure that's right. I think Scotland fans have a lot more arrogance and self-assuredness about them, much higher than what the quality of their players would merit, probably owing to their very decent pedigree pre-2000. Whereas success is an entirely new thing to us, so we're far more pessimistic about our chances. I just hope that strut and swagger on their side, and the lack of confidence on our side, doesn't manifest itself onto the field I was assured we were going to wipe the floor with ROI and Ramsey was going to lead the charge and eat them for breakfast. Need I say more! There was a lot of pessimism about the Euros granted, but I can already feel there is an ROI 2017 vibe building up here where the effect of drawing Scotland is going to whip up the hyperbole from us in response to Scotland. Basically it feels like It’s going to be a shitfest from now until then of both sets of fans telling the other to pipe down. Interesting comment from allez alluding to Colmeman admitting that it can affect the player’s preparation. We can’t afford to get sucked in to this sort of Battle of Britain stuff that will inevitably get banded about. We as fans won’t be playing true, but the media can certainly get under the skin of players and make them feel there is something to prove and thus provoke emotional reactions where calm heads are required. |
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Post by quetzal on Nov 26, 2021 20:00:54 GMT
Got to be honest. I got the ‘pathway’ thing wrong. I thought that Scotland or Ukraine had got the home tie. I didn’t realize there was another draw.
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Post by welshowl on Nov 26, 2021 20:01:23 GMT
How will the ticketing work, I wonder? Will FAW make you book (and pay for) both home games, the actual one vs Austria and the potential one against Scotland or Ukraine? 50% money back then, if we - God forbid - slip up against Austria? Good point. You’d imagine it’d have to be done this way. Wonder if there’ll be any sort of loyalty system too. Maybe ones who bought the double tickets for this months games get first choice. You would imagine that all tickets this time would be bought up by y Wal Goch / before they go on open sale to public. Not going to allow the Austrians (or further on, if we win the SF, the Scots) to get more than a minimum of fans into CCS.
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Post by iot on Nov 26, 2021 20:10:48 GMT
I'm not sure that's right. I think Scotland fans have a lot more arrogance and self-assuredness about them, much higher than what the quality of their players would merit, probably owing to their very decent pedigree pre-2000. Whereas success is an entirely new thing to us, so we're far more pessimistic about our chances. I just hope that strut and swagger on their side, and the lack of confidence on our side, doesn't manifest itself onto the field I was assured we were going to wipe the floor with ROI and Ramsey was going to lead the charge and eat them for breakfast. Need I say more! There was a lot of pessimism about the Euros granted, but I can already feel there is an ROI 2017 vibe building up here where the effect of drawing Scotland is going to whip up the hyperbole from us in response to Scotland. Basically it feels like It’s going to be a shitfest from now until then of both sets of fans telling the other to pipe down. Interesting comment from allez alluding to Colmeman admitting that it can affect the player’s preparation. We can’t afford to get sucked in to this sort of Battle of Britain stuff that will inevitably get banded about. We as fans won’t be playing true, but the media can certainly get under the skin of players and make them feel there is something to prove and thus provoke emotional reactions where calm heads are required. "I was assured we were going to wipe the floor with ROI and Ramsey was going to lead the charge and eat them for breakfast. Need I say more!" By who? I distinctly remember the exact opposite. I remember lots of doom and gloom after Bale got ruled out and everyone seemed to lose belief. I started a 'reasons to be positive' thread such was the negativity. I'm not sure you're remembering correctly there... |
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Post by welshowl on Nov 26, 2021 21:56:42 GMT
World Cup and play off history quickly. Last appearance at a World Cup
Cymru (1958) - Ukraine (2006 - also only time) - Scotland (1998) - Austria (1998)
Ukraine have played several play-offs but not the best record in them (they qualified via that route for Euro'16). Austrians don't seem to have been involved in any play-offs. Scots did well to qualify for Euro'22 via the play offs (winning on penalties vs both Israel and in Serbia).
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Post by dai on Nov 26, 2021 22:00:06 GMT
Got to be honest. I got the ‘pathway’ thing wrong. I thought that Scotland or Ukraine had got the home tie. I didn’t realize there was another draw. I thought for a second that the first semi final of each path got the home final. Not sure why they just didn't keep it like that instead of doing another draw again - but then we wouldn't have got the potential final! |
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Post by allezlesrouges on Nov 26, 2021 22:04:44 GMT
Actually We Global have us as the odds on favourites to qualify from our path as things stand, meaning our chances of winning our path must be above 50% Err, doesn't that graphic show they've given us a 31% chance of qualifying? Or am I missing something? It just means that they think our chances are slightly higher than Austria's (30%), Ukraine's (23%) and Scotland's (15%). But I would take that with a large pinch of salt - their algorithm appears to really underrate the scots for one thing! Yeah it's not going to be a massive difference because they are probably rating the games in our path as very even. But they have given us the greatest chance of winning out of all teams in our pathway. In this list prior to the draw we were at around 27% chance of qualifying overall - so we've been bumped up by 4% because of the draw |
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Post by iot on Nov 26, 2021 22:45:30 GMT
Err, doesn't that graphic show they've given us a 31% chance of qualifying? Or am I missing something? It just means that they think our chances are slightly higher than Austria's (30%), Ukraine's (23%) and Scotland's (15%). But I would take that with a large pinch of salt - their algorithm appears to really underrate the scots for one thing! Yeah it's not going to be a massive difference because they are probably rating the games in our path as very even. But they have given us the greatest chance of winning out of all teams in our pathway. In this list prior to the draw we were at around 27% chance of qualifying overall - so we've been bumped up by 4% because of the draw Again, I would take the predictions their algorithm comes out with with a large pinch of salt. |
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Post by allezlesrouges on Nov 26, 2021 22:46:52 GMT
Yeah it's not going to be a massive difference because they are probably rating the games in our path as very even. But they have given us the greatest chance of winning out of all teams in our pathway. In this list prior to the draw we were at around 27% chance of qualifying overall - so we've been bumped up by 4% because of the draw Again, I would take the predictions their algorithm comes out with with a large pinch of salt. Well yeah, I don't think this means we are guaranteed to qualify. But I'd probably we are the mathematical favourites in our path |
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Post by iot on Nov 26, 2021 22:51:48 GMT
Yeah it's not going to be a massive difference because they are probably rating the games in our path as very even. But they have given us the greatest chance of winning out of all teams in our pathway. In this list prior to the draw we were at around 27% chance of qualifying overall - so we've been bumped up by 4% because of the draw Again, I would take the predictions their algorithm comes out with with a large pinch of salt. As an example, let's look at what they predicted before the last window. They got two of the six seeds correct, and four of the six unseeded teams. So 50% accuracy. I probably would have got something similar through my own guesswork. There's all sorts of assumptions in the way their model works, and without seeing it it's difficult to assess how robust their model is. |
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Post by iot on Nov 26, 2021 22:53:08 GMT
Again, I would take the predictions their algorithm comes out with with a large pinch of salt. Well yeah, I don't think this means we are guaranteed to qualify. But I'd probably we are the mathematical favourites in our path But there's a difference, of course, from being marginal favourites among 4 teams, and being odds on to qualify, which is what I think you suggested earlier. |
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Post by allezlesrouges on Nov 26, 2021 22:54:16 GMT
Well yeah, I don't think this means we are guaranteed to qualify. But I'd probably we are the mathematical favourites in our path But there's a difference, of course, from being marginal favourites among 4 teams, and being odds on to qualify, which is what I think you suggested earlier. Even if it is marginal we'd still be odds on favourites |
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Post by iot on Nov 26, 2021 23:26:47 GMT
But there's a difference, of course, from being marginal favourites among 4 teams, and being odds on to qualify, which is what I think you suggested earlier. Even if it is marginal we'd still be odds on favourites Sorry, this is definitely verging on pedantry here! But again, it would make us favourites from the four, but not odds on to qualify (i.e. >50% chance). |
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Post by jbt95 on Nov 26, 2021 23:29:12 GMT
We are favourites cause we are the only team that can play at home twice.
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Post by zakbaby on Nov 27, 2021 1:45:21 GMT
The best draw we could have possibly asked for. Austria at home is a big challenge though. I think Scotland will batter Ukraine in the other semi. We can beat both, especially Scotland if we continue playing the way we have lately and not get into a physical battle that will be scrappy. If you'd have told me that we were 2 home games away from qualifying against Austria and Scotland at the start of qualifying I would have taken it. Revenge for 77 and 85 would make it even sweeter.
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Post by quetzal on Nov 27, 2021 3:03:10 GMT
I think this is tougher for the older fans. We have trust issues with Wales and the World Cup. Thank goodness for the younger generation. They’ll be thinking Euro Semi final and all that. Not bogged down with Joe Jordan, Davie Cooper, Bodin Pen miss and all that.
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Post by zakbaby on Nov 27, 2021 4:31:32 GMT
I think this is tougher for the older fans. We have trust issues with Wales and the World Cup. Thank goodness for the younger generation. They’ll be thinking Euro Semi final and all that. Not bogged down with Joe Jordan, Davie Cooper, Bodin Pen miss and all that. Spot on |
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Post by quetzal on Nov 27, 2021 5:11:53 GMT
Austria should be respected. Looking at Ukraine results. Drew twice with France in World Cup qualifiers. They aren’t no mugs. Scotland on a run. But I will say the draw could not have been better. No Sweden, Russia, Italy or Portugal.
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Post by erasedcitizen on Nov 27, 2021 8:37:59 GMT
If we face Scotland in the final we should move the game to Anfield to cash in on a bigger crowd in my opinion.
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Post by walesgolfmadrid on Nov 27, 2021 8:44:08 GMT
Austria should be respected. Looking at Ukraine results. Drew twice with France in World Cup qualifiers. They aren’t no mugs. Scotland on a run. But I will say the draw could not have been better. No Sweden, Russia, Italy or Portugal. Yeah, I don't think anyone's saying that it's going to be an easy ride to the World Cup but it's a given that at this stage of the draw that all the sides are going to be decent opposition. All of the unseeded sides qualified for the Euros. Of the sides we could have drawn, we've got the team that had the significantly worst WCQ group results/position, but four of the six unseeded sides finished second in their group so they aren't going to be mugs. Of the potential draw candidates, we've got a very nice draw which makes World Cup qualification very much possible and puts in with a chance. Had things gone against us, and had we been looking at Poland in Cardiff with a potential final in Rome then qualification would have been very unlikely and that's what we were fearing. |
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Post by evans1282 on Nov 27, 2021 8:50:34 GMT
I think this is tougher for the older fans. We have trust issues with Wales and the World Cup. Thank goodness for the younger generation. They’ll be thinking Euro Semi final and all that. Not bogged down with Joe Jordan, Davie Cooper, Bodin Pen miss and all that. I'm in that bracket age wise,but don't have any "trust" issues.I think recently we have definitely put the Scots bogey man to rest.Where my fixation with them centers purely on wiping the smugness out of their support.In my life I am a firm believer in Celtic brotherhood,but in football I've always found the majority of Scots and RoI fans a pain. |
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Post by jimbo82 on Nov 27, 2021 10:48:35 GMT
www.krone.at/2566111Austrian newspaper article here (read using google translate). Interesting that they rate their chances as 50-50, and also that they are hoping to have a fully fit squad to pick from, which hasn't been the case for them during qualifying - not just us then!
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Post by pclaude on Nov 27, 2021 10:50:36 GMT
But there's a difference, of course, from being marginal favourites among 4 teams, and being odds on to qualify, which is what I think you suggested earlier. Even if it is marginal we'd still be odds on favourites I’m not sure you understand what odds on means. Odds on would mean us having a greater than 50% chance. I.e. better odds than even money (50%). You can be favourite, without being odds on |
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Post by pclaude on Nov 27, 2021 10:56:16 GMT
I think this is tougher for the older fans. We have trust issues with Wales and the World Cup. Thank goodness for the younger generation. They’ll be thinking Euro Semi final and all that. Not bogged down with Joe Jordan, Davie Cooper, Bodin Pen miss and all that. You’re right, but there is a lot of revisionism over the Anfield game. Partly over why Anfield (we were banned from Cardiff) and also it wasn’t even certain we’d qualify had we won that game. We still had to go the European champions and get a result. Even in 85, had we beaten Scotland we would have needed a play off to qualify. In 93, it wasn’t certain that a win would have seen us through (though I think as other results turned out it would have been) |
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