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Post by sleepy on Oct 26, 2023 15:23:09 GMT
Think that's right. If Armenia win both games, they qualify. If we lose in Armenia and Croatia win in Latvia there is no combination in the final games which see us through. If Armenia beat us but only beat Croatia 1-0, I think it's Croatia that qualify on 2 way 2h2. Unless also beat Turkey, in which case Armenia win the 3 way h2h and qualify at Croatia's expense. In which case, we're better of losing/drawing with Turkey I checked this out again and while it is correct in that Croatia will go into the playoffs, we'd still probably be in the playoffs albeit as the likely 4th seed, away to Croatia in the SF. We would only miss out altogether if other teams e.g Netherlands and Italy also both blow it. In any case, as we play on the last day after most of the other groups, we should know all this by the time we ko v Turkey. |
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Post by allezlesrouges on Nov 9, 2023 12:06:40 GMT
The Barry Horns are trying to get one of these for the pre-match rituals vs Turkey. Would really add to the atmosphere 🏴
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Post by pclaude on Nov 9, 2023 12:18:10 GMT
If Armenia beat us but only beat Croatia 1-0, I think it's Croatia that qualify on 2 way 2h2. Unless also beat Turkey, in which case Armenia win the 3 way h2h and qualify at Croatia's expense. In which case, we're better of losing/drawing with Turkey I checked this out again and while it is correct in that Croatia will go into the playoffs, we'd still probably be in the playoffs albeit as the likely 4th seed, away to Croatia in the SF. We would only miss out altogether if other teams e.g Netherlands and Italy also both blow it. In any case, as we play on the last day after most of the other groups, we should know all this by the time we ko v Turkey. But it would be more than a little bizarre if we arrived that last game being better off not winning. |
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Post by allezlesrouges on Nov 9, 2023 16:23:32 GMT
I checked this out again and while it is correct in that Croatia will go into the playoffs, we'd still probably be in the playoffs albeit as the likely 4th seed, away to Croatia in the SF. We would only miss out altogether if other teams e.g Netherlands and Italy also both blow it. In any case, as we play on the last day after most of the other groups, we should know all this by the time we ko v Turkey. But it would be more than a little bizarre if we arrived that last game being better off not winning. I still don't understand how we would benefit from losing the final game in any scenario? |
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Post by bracklablue72 on Nov 9, 2023 20:22:10 GMT
The Barry Horns are trying to get one of these for the pre-match rituals vs Turkey. Would really add to the atmosphere 🏴 Great idea! We need to embrace our history, culture |
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Post by pclaude on Nov 11, 2023 9:29:19 GMT
But it would be more than a little bizarre if we arrived that last game being better off not winning. I still don't understand how we would benefit from losing the final game in any scenario? I did not say lose. I said not win. If we lose in Armenia, and Croatia win in Latvia, we cannot qualify from the group. The best we can do is to get into a 3 way tiebreak on 13 points for second if we best Turkey, and Armenia beat Croatia. In that three way tie Armenia go through. Croatia and us a relying on the play off. Which Croatia are guaranteed btw. Us probably too, it would be away to Croatia or Poland/Czechia. Or no play off at all if very unlucky. If we draw or lose to Turkey, and Armenia beat Croatia by 1 goal, Croatia win the tie break. That could be the difference between us getting a playoff place or not, or more likely be the difference between a home semi or not. We wont know. As the games kick off at the same time. So Wales v Turkey could be an absolute dogshit game with us trying not to win. Until we hear Croatia are 3 -0 up and then we can try and win as our result makes no difference. |
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Post by allezlesrouges on Nov 11, 2023 10:11:13 GMT
I still don't understand how we would benefit from losing the final game in any scenario? I did not say lose. I said not win. If we lose in Armenia, and Croatia win in Latvia, we cannot qualify from the group. The best we can do is to get into a 3 way tiebreak on 13 points for second if we best Turkey, and Armenia beat Croatia. In that three way tie Armenia go through. Croatia and us a relying on the play off. Which Croatia are guaranteed btw. Us probably too, it would be away to Croatia or Poland/Czechia. Or no play off at all if very unlucky. If we draw or lose to Turkey, and Armenia beat Croatia by 1 goal, Croatia win the tie break. That could be the difference between us getting a playoff place or not, or more likely be the difference between a home semi or not. We wont know. As the games kick off at the same time. So Wales v Turkey could be an absolute dogshit game with us trying not to win. Until we hear Croatia are 3 -0 up and then we can try and win as our result makes no difference. If Armenia are winning by one goal against Croatia, why would we want to draw rather than win? |
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Post by eppingblue1 on Nov 11, 2023 10:47:25 GMT
I did not say lose. I said not win. If we lose in Armenia, and Croatia win in Latvia, we cannot qualify from the group. The best we can do is to get into a 3 way tiebreak on 13 points for second if we best Turkey, and Armenia beat Croatia. In that three way tie Armenia go through. Croatia and us a relying on the play off. Which Croatia are guaranteed btw. Us probably too, it would be away to Croatia or Poland/Czechia. Or no play off at all if very unlucky. If we draw or lose to Turkey, and Armenia beat Croatia by 1 goal, Croatia win the tie break. That could be the difference between us getting a playoff place or not, or more likely be the difference between a home semi or not. We wont know. As the games kick off at the same time. So Wales v Turkey could be an absolute dogshit game with us trying not to win. Until we hear Croatia are 3 -0 up and then we can try and win as our result makes no difference. If Armenia are winning by one goal against Croatia, why would we want to draw rather than win? I think he's saying to avoid a 3 way 13 point tie that would put Armenia through on head to to head, Croatia in the play offs and us away in the first leg. |
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Post by jimexotic on Nov 11, 2023 11:54:08 GMT
If we lose in Armenia we don't deserve to qualify, that's the only thing that matters at this point in time, winning that game.
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Post by pclaude on Nov 11, 2023 22:51:10 GMT
I did not say lose. I said not win. If we lose in Armenia, and Croatia win in Latvia, we cannot qualify from the group. The best we can do is to get into a 3 way tiebreak on 13 points for second if we best Turkey, and Armenia beat Croatia. In that three way tie Armenia go through. Croatia and us a relying on the play off. Which Croatia are guaranteed btw. Us probably too, it would be away to Croatia or Poland/Czechia. Or no play off at all if very unlucky. If we draw or lose to Turkey, and Armenia beat Croatia by 1 goal, Croatia win the tie break. That could be the difference between us getting a playoff place or not, or more likely be the difference between a home semi or not. We wont know. As the games kick off at the same time. So Wales v Turkey could be an absolute dogshit game with us trying not to win. Until we hear Croatia are 3 -0 up and then we can try and win as our result makes no difference. If Armenia are winning by one goal against Croatia, why would we want to draw rather than win? Because it means Croatia, not Armenia come second. Which benefits us in terms of the play offs. Maybe qualifying at all, maybe getting a home semi. This is only if we lose to Armenia first. |
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Post by quetzal on Nov 18, 2023 19:22:42 GMT
Lost momentum. 2-0 Turkey. Cymru limp into play offs
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Post by conwy10 on Nov 18, 2023 20:04:19 GMT
Does that mean that if we beat Turkey and Croatia draw to Armenia we qualify?
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Post by winsumluzsum on Nov 18, 2023 20:11:11 GMT
Does that mean that if we beat Turkey and Croatia draw to Armenia we qualify? Yes. Turkey still need a win to be sure of finishing top. |
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Post by conwy10 on Nov 18, 2023 20:16:25 GMT
Does that mean that if we beat Turkey and Croatia draw to Armenia we qualify? Yes. Turkey still need a win to be sure of finishing top. But it's just between us and Croatia to finish 2nd? If they only manage a draw against Armenia and Turkey are already thinking of the summer we could finish 2nd above Croatia on head to head. |
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Post by fiveattheback on Nov 18, 2023 20:29:32 GMT
Yes. Turkey still need a win to be sure of finishing top. But it's just between us and Croatia to finish 2nd? If they only manage a draw against Armenia and Turkey are already thinking of the summer we could finish 2nd above Croatia on head to head. I think if we beat Turkey and Croatia beat Armenia then we finish 3rd with Turkey falling into 2nd on head to head |
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Post by dai on Nov 18, 2023 21:04:02 GMT
Turkey will win comfortably on Tuesday.
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Post by hooky on Nov 18, 2023 21:06:25 GMT
Yes - and the match is totally irrelevant now anyway
Even is we give a great performance its too little too late.
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Post by quetzal on Nov 18, 2023 21:37:15 GMT
Ticket touts will have taken an absolute hiding
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Post by underwood on Nov 18, 2023 21:44:34 GMT
Well, they’ve just beaten the Germans….
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Post by quetzal on Nov 18, 2023 22:00:13 GMT
Well, they’ve just beaten the Germans…. Yeah Croatia would have been hopeful on the Turkey game more than the Armenia one. Xmas came early in the Balkans. |
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Post by saturn9 on Nov 18, 2023 22:04:01 GMT
Well, they’ve just beaten the Germans…. Few months back, the Turks were torn apart by Japan. |
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Post by conwy10 on Nov 18, 2023 22:26:24 GMT
But it's just between us and Croatia to finish 2nd? If they only manage a draw against Armenia and Turkey are already thinking of the summer we could finish 2nd above Croatia on head to head. I think if we beat Turkey and Croatia beat Armenia then we finish 3rd with Turkey falling into 2nd on head to head But if Croatia only draw? All I need to know is what to look to to be honest. If we win and Croatia draw we both have the same team, I'm hoping only our results against Croatia are considered and not the Armenia ones. |
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Post by winsumluzsum on Nov 18, 2023 22:44:27 GMT
If we win and Croatia draw we qualify on head to head. Not happening.
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Post by fiveattheback on Nov 18, 2023 22:50:20 GMT
I think if we beat Turkey and Croatia beat Armenia then we finish 3rd with Turkey falling into 2nd on head to head But if Croatia only draw? All I need to know is what to look to to be honest. If we win and Croatia draw we both have the same team, I'm hoping only our results against Croatia are considered and not the Armenia ones. Yeah it's head to head. If we finish level on points with Croatia then we qualify Turkey can still finish second if Croatia beat Armenia & we beat Turkey |
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Post by winsumluzsum on Nov 18, 2023 23:01:32 GMT
And they need a win for a 2nd pot placement. I'll be amazed if we beat Turkey.
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Post by allezlesrouges on Nov 19, 2023 10:32:46 GMT
For what it's worth, I think we're better set up to beat a team like Turkey than Armenia at the moment. I do give us a decent of winning against Turkey
I just can't see serial qualifiers Croatia slipping up at home to Armenia. As much as I think Armenia are a tough team I can't see it
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Post by jbt95 on Nov 19, 2023 11:30:27 GMT
For what it's worth, I think we're better set up to beat a team like Turkey than Armenia at the moment. I do give us a decent of winning against Turkey I just can't see serial qualifiers Croatia slipping up at home to Armenia. As much as I think Armenia are a tough team I can't see it Armenia drew away to Turkey. Croatia don’t score many. They only beat Armenia away 1-0. Has Group of Death D got one more twist? |
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Post by pclaude on Nov 19, 2023 11:55:16 GMT
For what it's worth, I think we're better set up to beat a team like Turkey than Armenia at the moment. I do give us a decent of winning against Turkey I just can't see serial qualifiers Croatia slipping up at home to Armenia. As much as I think Armenia are a tough team I can't see it Armenia drew away to Turkey. Croatia don’t score many. They only beat Armenia away 1-0. Has Group of Death D got one more twist? No. |
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Post by jbt95 on Nov 19, 2023 12:50:09 GMT
Armenia drew away to Turkey. Croatia don’t score many. They only beat Armenia away 1-0. Has Group of Death D got one more twist? No. It probably won’t, no, but it wouldn’t surprise me if it did happen. |
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Post by cymro on Nov 19, 2023 13:17:45 GMT
Our points total going into the final game is about where I probably would have expected it to be going into the campaign. If we beat Turkey then we end up on 14, which was enough to finish 2nd in Euro 2020 qualifying. Unfortunately not enough this time in all likelihood. All we can do is focus on a win and it either gives us some positive momentum for the playoffs or the unthinkable happens and Croatia trip up against Armenia. Armenia have surprised everyone at certain moments this campaign so I'm not ruling it out yet, albeit it's a slim hope as they are now out themselves so might lack that extra motivation, but this certainly isn't the same Croatia side we watched a year ago at the world cup.
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