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Post by jbt95 on Mar 30, 2021 22:28:17 GMT
It’s a must win if we want to avoid being unseeded in the playoffs That statement is true, although seeding in the playoffs might be worse than not being seeded, as another poster pointed out elsewhere. The simple unqualified statement 'this is a must win game' however is false. Going into the play-offs with little form isn't a good thing, look at 2003. Every game in international football is a must win if we want to qualify and progress as a nation. That 'its ok to draw' is what led to us not qualifying for 2018. Change my mind. |
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Post by richierich333 on Mar 30, 2021 22:30:20 GMT
That statement is true, although seeding in the playoffs might be worse than not being seeded, as another poster pointed out elsewhere. The simple unqualified statement 'this is a must win game' however is false. Going into the play-offs with little form isn't a good thing, look at 2003. Every game in international football is a must win if we want to qualify and progress as a nation. That 'its ok to draw' is what led to us not qualifying for 2018. Change my mind. 2003 was 18 years ago there is absolutely nò comparison to be made. |
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Post by jbt95 on Mar 30, 2021 22:33:01 GMT
Going into the play-offs with little form isn't a good thing, look at 2003. Every game in international football is a must win if we want to qualify and progress as a nation. That 'its ok to draw' is what led to us not qualifying for 2018. Change my mind. 2003 was 18 years ago there is absolutely nò comparison to be made. Form doesn't matter if it was last week, last year or last century, what group of players etc. It doesn't change. A team is not likely to win two play-off ties if they have no competitive victories in the previous 4 games. It's simple stats. |
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Post by richierich333 on Mar 30, 2021 22:41:38 GMT
2003 was 18 years ago there is absolutely nò comparison to be made. Form doesn't matter if it was last week, last year or last century, what group of players etc. It doesn't change. A team is not likely to win two play-off ties if they have no competitive victories in the previous 4 games. It's simple stats. Mexico hasn't lost for 22 games we beat them 1-0 form is just stats |
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Post by jbt95 on Mar 30, 2021 22:44:30 GMT
Form doesn't matter if it was last week, last year or last century, what group of players etc. It doesn't change. A team is not likely to win two play-off ties if they have no competitive victories in the previous 4 games. It's simple stats. Mexico hasn't lost for 22 games we beat them 1-0 form is just stats Yes, but winning is a habit, and so is losing or failing to win. Look at us in the WCQ for 2018, 5 D's in a row ffs. |
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Post by cymru888 on Mar 30, 2021 22:50:40 GMT
So assuming no complacency sets in and we beat Estonia and Belarus home and away:
A point in Prague is enough to give us a crack at Automatic qualification in the last game. I’m assuming Belgium beat the Czechs at home, meaning we would have to win 2-0 to overtake Belgium head to head. Far fetched but not impossible, especially if Drakeford lets the crowds back in.
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Post by jbt95 on Mar 30, 2021 22:52:54 GMT
So assuming no complacency sets in and we beat Estonia and Belarus home and away: A point in Prague is enough to give us a crack at Automatic qualification in the last game. I’m assuming Belgium beat the Czechs at home, meaning we would have to win 2-0 to overtake Belgium head to head. Far fetched but not impossible, especially if Drakeford lets the crowds back in.
- Points (3 points for a win, 1 point for a draw, 0 points for a loss)
- Overall goal difference
- Overall goals scored
- Points in matches between tied teams
- Goal difference in matches between tied teams
- Goals scored in matches between tied teams
- Away goals scored in matches between tied teams (if the tie is only between two teams in home-and-away league format)"aka... we need to beat Belgium on points to finish first. Belgium v Czech Rep we want the Czech's to get something, ideally a draw, or we will need to go to them and win. This group was always going to hinge on the six games that see Belgium, Wales, Czech Republic clash, we've had 3 of those six games in the opening three rounds of fixtures. |
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Post by cymru888 on Mar 30, 2021 22:59:50 GMT
Fair enough, so was the euros worked out on head to head scores before general goal difference? And if so why have a different format?
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Post by jbt95 on Mar 30, 2021 23:08:55 GMT
Fair enough, so was the euros worked out on head to head scores before general goal difference? And if so why have a different format? Yes - "If two or more teams were equal on points on completion of the group matches, the following tie-breaking criteria were applied:[1]
- Higher number of points obtained in the matches played among the teams in question;
- Superior goal difference in matches played among the teams in question;
- Higher number of goals scored in the matches played among the teams in question;
- Higher number of goals scored away from home in the matches played among the teams in question"
Overall group GD only comes in if the 4 above are equal. Different format for different competition organisers, FIFA & UEFA. The WCQ are much harder, and arguably, set up for bigger teams to progress. |
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Post by allezlesrouges on Mar 30, 2021 23:15:54 GMT
More misery for the Irish as they draw to Qatar in a friendly, and end the game with less possession. Not looking good for them at the moment
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Post by saints19 on Mar 31, 2021 15:24:28 GMT
More misery for the Irish as they draw to Qatar in a friendly, and end the game with less possession. Not looking good for them at the moment Mentioned to my friend last night that karma might be a real thing  |
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Post by saints19 on Mar 31, 2021 15:30:39 GMT
So assuming no complacency sets in and we beat Estonia and Belarus home and away: A point in Prague is enough to give us a crack at Automatic qualification in the last game. I’m assuming Belgium beat the Czechs at home, meaning we would have to win 2-0 to overtake Belgium head to head. Far fetched but not impossible, especially if Drakeford lets the crowds back in.
- Points (3 points for a win, 1 point for a draw, 0 points for a loss)
- Overall goal difference
- Overall goals scored
- Points in matches between tied teams
- Goal difference in matches between tied teams
- Goals scored in matches between tied teams
- Away goals scored in matches between tied teams (if the tie is only between two teams in home-and-away league format)"aka... we need to beat Belgium on points to finish first. Belgium v Czech Rep we want the Czech's to get something, ideally a draw, or we will need to go to them and win. This group was always going to hinge on the six games that see Belgium, Wales, Czech Republic clash, we've had 3 of those six games in the opening three rounds of fixtures. Just checked and the first tiebreaker IS goal difference overall - not sure when they changed this but that's definitely a good thing for me. Never understood why head to head was ranked above goal difference, it really seemed ridiculously arbitrary. In that case you're probably right - barring a cricket score against Belarus and Estonia in our games (and when do we ever score more than 3 or 4 in a game?), we will probably need to beat Belgium on points. Can't see us matching their 8 against Belarus! So it's basically.....win all our remaining games. Easy! |
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Post by bringbackelmo on Mar 31, 2021 15:36:41 GMT
I'm torn between, on the one hand already feeling like we are playing for 2nd after the way Belgium have started, but also believing we could win the group.
We should take 12 points from the Estonia/Belarus games. If the Czechs do us another favour against Belgium, we might just do it.
On the whole though, I think 2nd is the more realistic prospect, which would be a decent result IMO.
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Post by iot on Mar 31, 2021 15:44:58 GMT
I think we have around a 10% chance of winning the group, which is basically what it was before the campaign stated. I'm assuming we win the fixtures vs Belarus and Estonia, but we will be underdogs out in Prague and even greater underdogs against the belgians. But the fixtures fall quite nicely - the easiest double-header we could hope for after the euros to get back into the swing of things and put any disappointment from the euros behind us, before playing czeck away as the first fixture in the next double header followed by estonia away. That means we can put all our prep towards the czech game. We then finish with belarus home which should prepare us nicely for the belgians a few days later. If we can win that czech away game, we're set for a winners take all game in the last fixture
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Post by saints19 on Mar 31, 2021 15:49:35 GMT
Our chances of winning the group have probably gone down since the start of the group because of the defeat to Belgium. I'd say it's more like 5% we win it from here. To win it, I think we will likely have to win all of our remaining games. We should beat Belarus and Estonia twice, but the Czech game is as likely to be a defeat as a win and Belgium even at home is a real long shot.
But we're still in it at least. If we hadn't won last night it would have been basically game over already.
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Post by georgeg1 on Mar 31, 2021 16:04:41 GMT
I think second place is the best we can hope for assuming we get a result against the Czechs. But what last night's game confirmed to me was that Moore has to play we looked a different side when he came on and it also highlights we need another goal scorer. Roberts nor Wilson are the answer as a false number 9. Good help us if Moore gets injured before an important match!
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Post by quetzal on Mar 31, 2021 16:12:21 GMT
Wales to win every game. Get your money on it!
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Post by eppingblue1 on Mar 31, 2021 17:59:44 GMT
Armenia have beaten Romania. A lot of strange results this time it appears.
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Post by erasedcitizen on Mar 31, 2021 18:07:43 GMT
Armenia have beaten Romania. A lot of strange results this time it appears. They're 3 for 3 having beaten Iceland and Liechtenstein too. |
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Post by manulike on Mar 31, 2021 18:26:50 GMT
Armenia have beaten Romania. A lot of strange results this time it appears. They're 3 for 3 having beaten Iceland and Liechtenstein too. Really happy for them. Their match v Germany in September will be massive.
They might benefit from a word with the Northern Irish ;-)
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Post by allezlesrouges on Mar 31, 2021 19:34:51 GMT
Armenia have beaten Romania. A lot of strange results this time it appears. Without Mkhitaryan playing as well. Think Germany will run the group, but they are in with a decent shout for 2nd if they can avoid a defeats against North Macedonia - who themselves have a great chance of 2nd too |
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Post by allezlesrouges on Mar 31, 2021 19:35:25 GMT
Wow North Macedonia ahead against Germany as well!! I spoke too soon!!
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Post by dai on Mar 31, 2021 20:26:06 GMT
Poland very close to picking up a point against England, but I guarantee they will find a way to win. They always do.
FUCKSAKES, straight after I typed that message!
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Post by allezlesrouges on Mar 31, 2021 20:27:16 GMT
Denmark thumping Austria 4-0 after beating Moldova 8-0 the other day is a big statement from them. I feel they have replaced Croatia as the number 1 dark horse
With 10 minutes to go...Albania are only 1-0 up to San Marino. Kazakhstan are drawing with Ukraine. Italy only 1-0 up against Lithuania. And Germany still level with North Macedonia
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Post by cynonvalley on Mar 31, 2021 20:31:03 GMT
2-1 North Macedonia!
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Post by allezlesrouges on Mar 31, 2021 20:31:50 GMT
And North Macedonia take the lead in Germany with 5 minutes to go!
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Post by welwyn on Mar 31, 2021 20:31:59 GMT
North Macedonia back in the lead.
This could be a brutal set of 12 teams heading for these play-offs.
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Post by manulike on Mar 31, 2021 20:42:07 GMT
Even with 9 minutes of ET Germany still lose
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Post by cynonvalley on Mar 31, 2021 20:42:24 GMT
All over, famous win for North Macedonia
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Post by manulike on Mar 31, 2021 20:43:02 GMT
Armenia top the group! With N. Mac second!
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