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Post by robwrecsam on Dec 8, 2020 19:32:17 GMT
I think Belgium first could be good, unlikely to be much or any crowd so better for us.
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Post by hal on Dec 8, 2020 19:38:07 GMT
We have tended to get the important games in early in recent years. Think it is a strategy from FAW.
Worked in nations league
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Post by saints19 on Dec 8, 2020 19:45:15 GMT
I'm really happy with the order of fixtures. Belgium and Czech Rep first so we will be able to prepare fully for arguably the two most important games of the campaign. Win both (unlikely I know) and we're in with a real chance of topping the group. Belgium last may help us too, with Belarus at home just before you would imagine we will be able to focus most of our preparations on the Belgium game if we're still in with a chance of winning the group. Also all the key fixtures spaced out nicely throughout the campaign so a freak injury situation for one game won't just destroy our campaign.
Can't argue with that at all. Aside from the group draw being a bit of a downer, we've got the best chance possible with the fixtures. On to the campaign!
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Post by saints19 on Dec 8, 2020 19:46:31 GMT
We have tended to get the important games in early in recent years. Think it is a strategy from FAW. Worked in nations league Do they not get done by random computer draw now? Don't think there is any negotiation involved. |
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Post by jackanapes on Dec 8, 2020 19:57:15 GMT
Terrific set of fixtures. Two of the toughest fixtures to begin and an opportunity to seize the initiative. If we can get 4 points in that first set we’ll be in a great position.
I also think it’s good to have these games before the Euros. We’ll have to be at our best and it’s good preparation for the summer.
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Post by saints19 on Dec 8, 2020 20:00:13 GMT
Only group I'd have preferred would have been Group F, but even then Scotland would probably be a tougher game than the Czechs & Denmark are still strong. I prefer our group to the Croatia group as playing Russia & Slovenia is very hazardous. I'd be interested to hear any arguments that our group is anything other than the 2nd best group to be drawn into Personally Scotland/Czech Rep is much of a muchness. I think my view on the draw is based on us having already more or less secured a play-off. If we'd failed to win the Nations League group then getting an easier third seed to have a better chance of a play-off would be more important, and I would agree that in that case I'd rather our group than the Croatia/Russia/Slovenia one. Don't know how Russia ended up in pot 3, surely a better team than Romania. |
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Post by saints19 on Dec 8, 2020 20:09:49 GMT
Interesting to note the reactions from the other fans of the other nations in UK/Ireland:
- England fans moaning that Southgate will have them set up too defensively for San Marino, whinging about their poor footballers having to go through the agony of even playing them/Andorra, my heart bleeds
- Scotland fans as usual predicting they will win the group, haven't done that in decades, probably call for Clarke to be sacked when they're 3rd mid campaign
- ROI fans calling Luxembourg and Azerbaijan muck and shite and saying how much of a disgrace it will be if Kenny fails to take maximum points, can't wait to see them get four draws in those games lol
- Haven't been on the NI forums yet but a few fans around BBC still going on about the play-off v Switzerland
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Post by walesgolfmadrid on Dec 8, 2020 20:15:26 GMT
Surely you do want Belgium away first, when there's less likely to be a crowd? By the time we play them at home last game, hopefully it'll be a full house. It could be over though by the time we play them at home. If we lose in Belgium we ain't coming first, no chance. Even a 1-0 win for them would need us to beat them by 2 goals more than likely, and that's if we match their GD for the other 6 games, assuming we don't drop anymore points than them. If we draw, Belgium might only need a point in Cardiff to qualify automatically, which they'd get if that is all that is stopping them. It's huge pressure on us to turn up and win now, after not playing for four months and having limited prep time. Yes, but that's the case regardless of when we're playing them. They'll have the same preparation time as us regardless, and it's going to be a very hard game for us whenever we play it, but I think you'd want that home game to be with a full crowd for us to stand any sort of chance of winning at home. |
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Post by gwernybwch on Dec 8, 2020 20:50:55 GMT
Belgium v Wales
Czech Republic v Belgium
Wales v Czech Republic
Fixtures in the March matchdays. So by the end of March we should have a fair understanding as to how the group will shape up.
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Post by saints19 on Dec 8, 2020 21:36:41 GMT
Belgium v Wales Czech Republic v Belgium Wales v Czech Republic Fixtures in the March matchdays. So by the end of March we should have a fair understanding as to how the group will shape up. Most likely be Belgium 6, Wales 1, Czech Republic 1  |
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Post by manulike on Dec 8, 2020 21:58:30 GMT
We have tended to get the important games in early in recent years. Think it is a strategy from FAW. Worked in nations league Do they not get done by random computer draw now? Don't think there is any negotiation involved. If it indeed is by design (I believe FAs can submit requests) it will work quite well as a prep for the Euros to have two tough rivals in March.
Personally, I am really not impressed by splitting Minsk and Tallinn - was hoping to do a double-header ... in September ... would have been ideal...
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Post by hal on Dec 8, 2020 22:17:53 GMT
Do they not get done by random computer draw now? Don't think there is any negotiation involved. If it indeed is by design (I believe FAs can submit requests) it will work quite well as a prep for the Euros to have two tough rivals in March.
Personally, I am really not impressed by splitting Minsk and Tallinn - was hoping to do a double-header ... in September ... would have been ideal...
I always thought it was negotiated but I might be wrong? Euros we played Slovakia home and Croatia away first 2 games (we assumed they would be top 2 contenders), nations league we went to Finland first and ended with two home games. Might all be a coincidence and computer driven, but some similarities. |
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Post by allezlesrouges on Dec 8, 2020 22:27:41 GMT
0-0 away in Belgium in the first game & then win against the Czechs in Cardiff and that's the perfect start. We should be relatively comfortable against Belarus & Estonia home and away. If we can then also get a result away to the Czechs it's perfectly set up for a classic against Belgium in Cardiff. Perfect set of fixtures in my mind but those two first games are make or break in a way
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Post by jbt95 on Dec 8, 2020 22:34:41 GMT
It could be over though by the time we play them at home. If we lose in Belgium we ain't coming first, no chance. Even a 1-0 win for them would need us to beat them by 2 goals more than likely, and that's if we match their GD for the other 6 games, assuming we don't drop anymore points than them. If we draw, Belgium might only need a point in Cardiff to qualify automatically, which they'd get if that is all that is stopping them. It's huge pressure on us to turn up and win now, after not playing for four months and having limited prep time. . They'll have the same preparation time as us regardless, and it's going to be a very hard game for us whenever we play it, but I think you'd want that home game to be with a full crowd for us to stand any sort of chance of winning at home. I think it's very naive to think that. Playing them on a Wednesday straight into the first international break for four months is really hard luck, especially as we then do not play on the Saturday in a competitive game. If we played them on the 5th or 6th game - rather than 8th - it's not likely they will only need a point / already qualified. Even if they only needed to win the remaining two/three games if we drew/beat them, they still need to go and do that rather than having the points and goal difference on the board. Sport is physiological as much as it is physical. Fixture lists, days/times make a big impact. We begin away in three of the four windows. Not ideal. |
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Post by jbt95 on Dec 8, 2020 22:36:07 GMT
0-0 away in Belgium in the first game & then win against the Czechs in Cardiff and that's the perfect start. We should be relatively comfortable against Belarus & Estonia home and away. If we can then also get a result away to the Czechs it's perfectly set up for a classic against Belgium in Cardiff. Perfect set of fixtures in my mind but those two first games are make or break in a way It's only perfect if Belgium have dropped more points than us imo. If they come to Cardiff needing a point, I just can't see us overturning them. We've had similar situations v ROI, Denmark, Hungary and Finland, where we have been in the driving seat. Luckily, the latest two we have come out on top... but we've yet to have a game where the visiting team is in control. Maybe the closest to that was Israel and we couldn't do it. |
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Post by allezlesrouges on Dec 8, 2020 22:42:37 GMT
0-0 away in Belgium in the first game & then win against the Czechs in Cardiff and that's the perfect start. We should be relatively comfortable against Belarus & Estonia home and away. If we can then also get a result away to the Czechs it's perfectly set up for a classic against Belgium in Cardiff. Perfect set of fixtures in my mind but those two first games are make or break in a way It's only perfect if Belgium have dropped more points than us imo. If they come to Cardiff needing a point, I just can't see us overturning them. We've had similar situations v ROI, Denmark, Hungary and Finland, where we have been in the driving seat. Luckily, the latest two we have come out on top... but we've yet to have a game where the visiting team is in control. Maybe the closest to that was Israel and we couldn't do it. I understand what you are saying, but how we've done in these games in the past are irrelevant on how we will do in the future. I will hold up the examples of Hungary and Finland as positive examples of us getting over the line in big games. This new group has a different mentality |
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Post by richierich333 on Dec 9, 2020 8:12:20 GMT
0-0 away in Belgium in the first game & then win against the Czechs in Cardiff and that's the perfect start. We should be relatively comfortable against Belarus & Estonia home and away. If we can then also get a result away to the Czechs it's perfectly set up for a classic against Belgium in Cardiff. Perfect set of fixtures in my mind but those two first games are make or break in a way You make it all sound so easy. I hope it just goes to plan but it never does. |
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Post by welwyn on Dec 9, 2020 8:44:22 GMT
Predictions for the other groups:
Group A: Portugal win it by a couple of points from Serbia. Ireland draw 0-0 in Azerbaijan to derail their campaign.
Group B: Spain win it, Sweden second. It's a shame this isn't a Euro Qualifying group as the battle for third will be a barn-burner between Greece, Kosovo & Georgia.
Group C: Italy and Switzerland win every game against the others. Wouldn't be surprised if the Swiss GD will be better so the Italian's need 4 points from their games.
Group D: France win the group at a canter. Ukraine fall on their backside. Finland pinch 2nd from Bosnia because they balls it up by drawing in Kazakhstan.
Group F: Denmark breath a sigh of relief that they avoid the best 2nd seeds like Switzerland/Turkey/Sweden. However, Austria are dangerous. I expect Denmark to see them off and Scotland fans to lose it when they fall to Austria.
Group G: This is by far the best group. Dutch should win it but if they don't perform Turkey & Haaland could both make them pay. Especially as both those two teams HAVE to get 2nd at least to make the play-offs.
Group H: Croatia are very much falling away as their great midfielders get old. Thankfully for them I don't think Slovakia are good enough to get on top of them. Croatia v Russia straight-up fight and I fancy that Russia might just nick it.
Group I: Most straightforward group. England 1st, Poland 2nd, Hungary 3rd. Rest nowhere. Poland v Hungary games should be great though!
Group J: I thought Germany were at the most vulnerable they have ever been, so to get a weaker pot 2 & 3 team is so lucky for them. I fancy Romania to finish 2nd but would actually be less surprised if North Macedonia finish 2nd than if Iceland did.
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Post by 1gwaunview on Dec 9, 2020 10:07:13 GMT
Funny isn't it, just a few short years ago we'd be moaning already of having little chance of qualifying from that group (with Belgium and the Czechs especially). Now look at us!!  |
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Post by allezlesrouges on Dec 9, 2020 10:15:42 GMT
[/strong] Denmark breath a sigh of relief that they avoid the best 2nd seeds like Switzerland/Turkey/Sweden. However, Austria are dangerous. I expect Denmark to see them off and Scotland fans to lose it when they fall to Austria. Group G: This is by far the best group. Dutch should win it but if they don't perform Turkey & Haaland could both make them pay. Especially as both those two teams HAVE to get 2nd at least to make the play-offs. Group H: Croatia are very much falling away as their great midfielders get old. Thankfully for them I don't think Slovakia are good enough to get on top of them. Croatia v Russia straight-up fight and I fancy that Russia might just nick it. I thought Germany were at the most vulnerable they have ever been, so to get a weaker pot 2 & 3 team is so lucky for them. I fancy Romania to finish 2nd but would actually be less surprised if North Macedonia finish 2nd than if Iceland did. [/quote] Group F will be very interesting & there should be a fair amount of dropped points & most teams will be in the running up until the end Group G could well be a cracking one. Haaland makes it such a leveller. I think it will be Norway & Netherlands top 2 but could go either way Group H is going to be very interesting too. I wouldn't be surprised to see Slovenia get into the top 2. With Hamsik fading away Slovakia seem to be lacking any genuine world class players, whereas Slovenia have Oblak, Ilicic & Kampl. If they get a system around getting the best out of these players then they could go on a run Germany to win the group like you said but I think North Macedonia could nick 2nd here. I like their system |
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Post by erasedcitizen on Dec 9, 2020 10:31:04 GMT
Group A: Portugal comfortably ahead of Serbia who will fight it out with Ireland for 2nd. Serbia lack overall strength but do possess some match winners so I think they'll edge it
Group B: Spain win every game, Sweden comfortably 2nd
Group C: Italy to romp this group, picking up 4 points against Switzerland and winning every other match. Switzerland not far behind, winning all their other games but the dropped points against Italy costing them
Group D: France 1st, Ukraine 2nd. Finland and Bosnia fight it out for 3rd.
Group F: Denmark, Austria and Scotland all fairly bunched together. I expect Denmark to see it home with a straight shootout between Austria and Scotland for 2nd.
Group G: Netherlands top with Norway 2nd. I can see Netherlands dropping points against Norway and Turkey however.
Group H: Croatia 1st, Russia 2nd, Slovakia 3rd
Group I: Poland will make it difficult for England and may manage 2 draws against them. The group will be won and lost in the games against Hungary who should finish in 3rd. Lewandowski yet again running away as top scorer after putting loads past the whipping boys Andorra and San Marino.
Group J: Romania are a poor team these days and were easily the best team to draw from pot 2, as they only managed to finish in that tier due to Covid restrictions. I fancy Macedonia for 2nd here but Iceland will fancy their chances as well. Germany should ease through with all their talent, despite their dip in form lately. They are going through a transition phase and could be far more competent next year.
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Post by superunknown on Dec 9, 2020 11:18:33 GMT
Worth pointing out (and because I'm a big loser who loves statistics) that there's not been a recent UEFA World Cup qualifying campaign where all the top seeds have won their groups, not really even close...
2018 - Unfortunately us, Netherlands, Romania (how do they keep getting high pots) and Croatia all failed to reach the dizzying heights of 1st in their respective qualification groups. Fail rate - 44%
2014 - Croatia, Norway, Portugal, Greece. Fail rate - 44%
2010 - Portugal, Greece, Czech Republic, Croatia, France. Fail rate - 56%
2006 - Czech Republic, Turkey, Spain, Sweden. Fail rate - 50%
2002 - FR Yugoslavia, Netherlands, Czech Republic, Norway, Belgium, Romania, Germany. Fail rate - 78%
1998 - Italy, Sweden, Russia. Fail rate - 33%
I've stopped here as the top two teams qualify automatically prior to 1994 so it becomes less relevant but still holds true, 1994 would have been 67%.
Will this be the first time there's a 0% fail rate? Somehow I doubt it but interesting wondering who will mess up.
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Post by allezlesrouges on Dec 9, 2020 12:23:01 GMT
Some interesting stats there. Just highlights that football isn't always played on rankings. We are a strong pot 2 side up against a pot 1 side we have a psychological edge over & have weaknesses. I think that makes us a good candidate to cause one of those upsets. Croatia/Denmark groups will be a battle and they could both miss out on top spot. England could miss out to Poland as well. Less likely but the Netherlands could slip up. However, beyond that I think with the way the Nations League works now teams tend to be more settled in the hierarchy & I don't expect too many surprises. France, Portugal, Spain, Italy, Germany should be fine
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Post by erasedcitizen on Dec 9, 2020 13:15:57 GMT
I wouldn't say Italy winning their group is a given. Switzerland are a handy side and usually perform very well in qualifying. I can't see past the others you mentioned though.
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Post by allezlesrouges on Dec 9, 2020 13:50:48 GMT
I had a quick look at Italy/Switzerland's respective Euro qualifying campaigns and then Nations League performances
Italy were 10 from 10 in their group containing Finland, Greece & Bosnia
Switzerland were in a tight group and dropped 4 points against Denmark, 2 points against Ireland. They also had close games with Georgia. Interesting because their results against these 3 teams are very similar to ours in recent years
Switzerland then went on to survive in League A in the Nations League by virtue of being awarded a 3-0 win against the Ukraine - a game they had to win. They did get some admirable results with 2 draws against Germany and a draw against Spain. Although they lost every other game including to the Ukraine
Italy comparatively won a group with Bosnia, Netherlands & Poland without losing a game
I do agree the Swiss could pull a result out of the bag against them and upset them but I do feel Italy are strong favourites. I'd make it about 70/30 that Italy win the group based on the above
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Post by welshrover on Dec 9, 2020 14:24:11 GMT
Funny isn't it, just a few short years ago we'd be moaning already of having little chance of qualifying from that group (with Belgium and the Czechs especially). Now look at us!! I'm more impressed by the term "relatively comfortable" in relation to playing Belarus and Estonia. Not many years ago we would have been dreading going to places like that! |
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Post by insertname on Dec 9, 2020 15:21:20 GMT
Funny isn't it, just a few short years ago we'd be moaning already of having little chance of qualifying from that group (with Belgium and the Czechs especially). Now look at us!! I'm more impressed by the term "relatively comfortable" in relation to playing Belarus and Estonia. Not many years ago we would have been dreading going to places like that! I still do and always will. For me the Czech away Estonia away double header sticks out as where we will come unstuck |
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Post by jbt95 on Dec 9, 2020 18:24:01 GMT
Do we want the Czech Republic to be competitive with us and Belgium? Or would we prefer them out of the picture dropping points all over the place.
Maybe them being competitive could help us in the final round of games, eg if us v Belgium ended a draw in Belgium's favour finishing top, that the Czech's beating Estonia at home would make them go top? aka - force Belgium to attack us.
I guess we won't know for certain until near the end of the campaign, but we may get an inclination after the March games have been played.
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Post by trevorcloud on Dec 10, 2020 13:54:32 GMT
Yes, but that's the case regardless of when we're playing them. They'll have the same preparation time as us regardless, and it's going to be a very hard game for us whenever we play it, but I think you'd want that home game to be with a full crowd for us to stand any sort of chance of winning at home. I think it's very naive to think that. Playing them on a Wednesday straight into the first international break for four months is really hard luck, especially as we then do not play on the Saturday in a competitive game. If we played them on the 5th or 6th game - rather than 8th - it's not likely they will only need a point / already qualified. Even if they only needed to win the remaining two/three games if we drew/beat them, they still need to go and do that rather than having the points and goal difference on the board. Sport is physiological as much as it is physical. Fixture lists, days/times make a big impact. We begin away in three of the four windows. Not ideal. Interested to read this reaction to having away games second. Ray Verheijen (remember him?!) was a big critic of double headers, saying they always favoured the home team in the second game... ever since reading that years ago, I've kept an eye out for the order of matches, I thought this draw was good for us in that respect! Obviously plenty of factors at play... |
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Post by trevorcloud on Dec 10, 2020 13:57:36 GMT
Worth pointing out (and because I'm a big loser who loves statistics) that there's not been a recent UEFA World Cup qualifying campaign where all the top seeds have won their groups, not really even close... 2018 - Unfortunately us, Netherlands, Romania (how do they keep getting high pots) and Croatia all failed to reach the dizzying heights of 1st in their respective qualification groups. Fail rate - 44% 2014 - Croatia, Norway, Portugal, Greece. Fail rate - 44% 2010 - Portugal, Greece, Czech Republic, Croatia, France. Fail rate - 56% 2006 - Czech Republic, Turkey, Spain, Sweden. Fail rate - 50% 2002 - FR Yugoslavia, Netherlands, Czech Republic, Norway, Belgium, Romania, Germany. Fail rate - 78% 1998 - Italy, Sweden, Russia. Fail rate - 33% I've stopped here as the top two teams qualify automatically prior to 1994 so it becomes less relevant but still holds true, 1994 would have been 67%. Will this be the first time there's a 0% fail rate? Somehow I doubt it but interesting wondering who will mess up. Big fan of these stats! A few repeat offenders there, Croatia and the Czechs with three each on the bounce... |
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