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Post by bluetone on Apr 2, 2016 21:58:49 GMT
...be enough to qualify for the last 16.
I think so seeing as 4 X 3rd places from the 6 groups qualify.
Anyone one else carried out a predictor?
Beat Slovakia and we can relax and play England and Russia without any pressure.
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Post by aled on Apr 2, 2016 22:24:50 GMT
One win and a draw I reckon. Beat Slovakia, lose to England, draw with the Russians.
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Post by phillygaz on Apr 2, 2016 23:42:29 GMT
Three points was enough in 1990. Scotland and Austria the two third place teams eliminated, both on two points. Russia were eliminated with 3 points in USA 1994. Much closer groups in that WC with teams taking points off each other - best 4 third place teams had 4 or even 6 points.
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Post by phillygaz on Apr 2, 2016 23:43:08 GMT
Now I think about it it was still two points for a win in 1990.
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Post by bluetone on Apr 3, 2016 6:42:09 GMT
Three points was enough in 1990. Scotland and Austria the two third place teams eliminated, both on two points. Russia were eliminated with 3 points in USA 1994. Much closer groups in that WC with teams taking points off each other - best 4 third place teams had 4 or even 6 points. 4 points would definitely do it yes. i just see two weaker evenly matched teams in two other groups drawing one game and losing two so therefore three points will do it, or two teams drawing two games and losing one like in group D & E. Thats my theory anyway. |
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Post by leggybach on Apr 3, 2016 11:19:07 GMT
Just did a simulator and had us as the 3rd best 3rd place with just 3 points. Interestingly, only one team from my predictions had 4 points! FWIW: Iceland 4, Italy 3, Wales, 3, Albania 3, Croatia 3, NI 1. Have a go here: ultra.zone/UEFA-EURO-2016-Group-Stage |
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Post by manulike on Apr 3, 2016 12:58:48 GMT
I have wales v either ŕomania or hungary in r16. Then either france or portugal in quarters. I feel that a score draw againt russia could make a big differance. Seeing the ŕussian defence, we can certainly score against them. If england beat russia by 2 clear goals, that could also work for us (if we fail to beat slovakia).
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Post by trevorcloud on Apr 3, 2016 13:27:00 GMT
Lots of comments under the simulator seem to involve "Gales" or whatever in the round of 16 so it's not just us being optimistic! Did a few simulations and 3 points did the job most times... Germany in the second round, bring it on.
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Post by bluetone on Apr 3, 2016 14:58:58 GMT
As I put my neck on the block and said I think 3 points will do it. I deliberately only gave us 3 points and we still qualified ...but end up with Germany  I actually think we'll end up with 4 points as long as our best 11 stay fit How good will it be to beat Slovakia in the first game. |
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Post by damo on Apr 3, 2016 15:22:25 GMT
As I put my neck on the block and said I think 3 points will do it. I deliberately only gave us 3 points and we still qualified ...but end up with Germany I actually think we'll end up with 4 points as long as our best 11 stay fit How good will it be to beat Slovakia in the first game. Most permutations I've worked through with that simulator see us playing either Spain (Nice) or Germany (Lille). Time to start booking travel for the QFs .  |
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Post by aled on Apr 3, 2016 21:18:58 GMT
Please let it be Spain in Nice.
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Post by erasedcitizen on Apr 3, 2016 23:47:58 GMT
As I put my neck on the block and said I think 3 points will do it. I deliberately only gave us 3 points and we still qualified ...but end up with Germany I actually think we'll end up with 4 points as long as our best 11 stay fit How good will it be to beat Slovakia in the first game. Most permutations I've worked through with that simulator see us playing either Spain (Nice) or Germany (Lille). Time to start booking travel for the QFs . I don't know what simulator you've been using, but if we end up in Nice we play 2nd place out of Portugal, Austria, Iceland & Hungary. I wouldn't write us off against any of those. I presume you meant Lens for the winner of Spain's group if we come 3rd, but there's only a 1/10 chance of that happening if we come 3rd and go through. |
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Post by damo on Apr 4, 2016 6:05:07 GMT
Most permutations I've worked through with that simulator see us playing either Spain (Nice) or Germany (Lille). Time to start booking travel for the QFs . I don't know what simulator you've been using, but if we end up in Nice we play 2nd place out of Portugal, Austria, Iceland & Hungary. I wouldn't write us off against any of those. I presume you meant Lens for the winner of Spain's group if we come 3rd, but there's only a 1/10 chance of that happening if we come 3rd and go through. Sorry - operator error, probably! |
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Post by manulike on Apr 4, 2016 7:09:56 GMT
Although I would love us to win our group and sail through to semi-finals, I also feel that being 2nd and going to Nice is brilliant for our first tournament in years. Only problem there is quarter-final against France in Paris. Now that is some party to look forward to!
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Post by erasedcitizen on Apr 4, 2016 8:07:48 GMT
I don't know what simulator you've been using, but if we end up in Nice we play 2nd place out of Portugal, Austria, Iceland & Hungary. I wouldn't write us off against any of those. I presume you meant Lens for the winner of Spain's group if we come 3rd, but there's only a 1/10 chance of that happening if we come 3rd and go through. Sorry - operator error, probably! No worries. Coming 2nd looks a lot more important than coming 3rd if we are to progress further. It's not a given that Spain and Germany will win their groups mind. |
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Post by welwyn on Apr 4, 2016 8:44:54 GMT
Although I would love us to win our group and sail through to semi-finals, I also feel that being 2nd and going to Nice is brilliant for our first tournament in years. Only problem there is quarter-final against France in Paris. Now that is some party to look forward to! The possibility of Iceland or Portugal in Nice is very winable (Austria ARE winning that group). Although not being able to stay out there for that potential QF v France in Paris is gutting. |
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Post by sleepy on Apr 4, 2016 9:06:10 GMT
I've looked back at previous tournaments and believe that 1 win and 2 losses will be enough to see us though, provided we don't get stuffed in the 2 losses. I expect there will be multiple teams who finish in 3rd place with 3 points, so goal difference likely to come into play.
I've looked back at all the groups since since the Euros went 3 points per win in 1996 (so 5 tournaments in total, each with 4 groups of 4)
The average points for the 20 third placed teams has been 3.25.
The points for 3rd place in each year is as follows:
Euro 2012: 4,3,4,4 (av 3.5)
Euro 2008: 3,1,2,3 (av 2.25)
Euro 2004: 4,2,5,2 (av 3.25)
Euro 2000: 3,3,4,4 (av 3.25)
Euro 1996: 4,4,4,4 (av 4)
The number of occurrences of points for 3rd placed teams is:
5 points: 1
4 points: 8
3 points: 7
2 points: 3
1 points: 1
I know this tournament will be different in that teams will know that 3rd place is worth playing for (unlike the previous 5 tournaments), but if you add 2 further teams to each group and award them 3 points each you get:
Euro 2012: 4,3,4,4, 3,3 - 1 of 3 teams on 3 points qualify for last 16
Euro 2008: 3,1,2,3, 3,3 - all 4 teams with 3 points qualify for last 16
Euro 2004: 4,2,5,2, 3,3 - both teams with 3 points qualify for last 16
Euro 2000: 3,3,4,4, 3,3 - 2 of 4 teams on 3 points qualify for last 16
Euro 1996: 4,4,4,4, 3,3 - none of the teams on 3 points qualify for last 16
So using the crude analysis above, overall 60% (9 out of 15) of teams who finish 3rd on 3 points would qualify for last 16. Some years are better than others.
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Post by erasedcitizen on Apr 4, 2016 9:49:50 GMT
Although I would love us to win our group and sail through to semi-finals, I also feel that being 2nd and going to Nice is brilliant for our first tournament in years. Only problem there is quarter-final against France in Paris. Now that is some party to look forward to! The possibility of Iceland or Portugal in Nice is very winable (Austria ARE winning that group). Although not being able to stay out there for that potential QF v France in Paris is gutting. Portugal are still a very good team and have a strong history at the Euros. I have Portugal down as coming second in that group but I'd much rather face Austria or Iceland. |
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