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Post by allezlesrouges on Oct 12, 2023 21:55:17 GMT
One small positive is that Turkey only need to beat Latvia at home to qualify. Should make our game against them a tad easier. Good point! Win for us on Sunday and I'd say we're 60-40 chance of doing it for that reason |
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Post by jbt95 on Oct 12, 2023 21:56:52 GMT
There’s a huge difference between being “mathematically done” and still having it within our hands! Yes it’s unlikely, but it’s all still up to us and in our hands. We don’t need any other results to go our way. When it’s still mathematically possible but you’re relying on the results of other matched then yes, perhaps you can think it’s pretty much over- but if you simply need to win three matches then there’s hope. Each game is just like a knockout round for us now. Admire your optimism but you’ll have to forgive me for not thinking we can beat every team we’ve failed to beat so far this campaign. I’ll still be in Yerevan and Cardiff backing them regardless. Difference is in Spilt we basically decided to take all our main players off at 1-0, Armenia still had something to play for and we played in June, and Turkey was away again in June with 10 men. 2 home games and an away game against a basically side out of it is a different spin, plus a lot more of our players are playing regularly now I would say. |
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Post by melynwy on Oct 12, 2023 22:05:52 GMT
There’s a huge difference between being “mathematically done” and still having it within our hands! Yes it’s unlikely, but it’s all still up to us and in our hands. We don’t need any other results to go our way. When it’s still mathematically possible but you’re relying on the results of other matched then yes, perhaps you can think it’s pretty much over- but if you simply need to win three matches then there’s hope. Each game is just like a knockout round for us now. Admire your optimism but you’ll have to forgive me for not thinking we can beat every team we’ve failed to beat so far this campaign. I’ll still be in Yerevan and Cardiff backing them regardless. Well as I said, it’s unlikely. But it’s also miles away from the typical “it’s still mathematically possible but…” situation. We just go into every game needing to win, like a cup run. No other results matter, and if what I read above is correct, goal difference doesn’t matter either. Win three games and we’re through, it’s all in our hands. If we realistically hope to put on a good show at a tournament again, we need to hope to be able to do stuff like this and beat decent opposition in consecutive games. |
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Post by iot on Oct 12, 2023 22:20:10 GMT
Hats off to everyone staying positive. I commend your optimism. I just can't see it unfortunately. Croatia bounced back in March from the draw with us to beat Turkey 2-0, unfortunately I think we'll see something similar on Sunday. They'll have 70% of the ball, we'll sit off, the crowd will get edgy and then a goal or two will come after the constant probing. S
'We Global Football' are giving us an 11% chance, I think that's kind to be honest. I think the best we can do is to put in some decent performances to get confidence in time for the playoffs - that's by far our most likely route of going through.
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Post by CrackityJones on Oct 12, 2023 22:28:59 GMT
…and we need Poland to beat Moldova on Sunday then Czechia in November to qualify automatically. That means we’ll get the kinder play off home game against Estonia.
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Post by allezlesrouges on Oct 12, 2023 22:33:14 GMT
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Post by conwy10 on Oct 12, 2023 22:34:59 GMT
…and we need Poland to beat Moldova on Sunday then Czechia in November to qualify automatically. That means we’ll get the kinder play off first home game against Estonia. How do people work these out? I'm completely lost when it comes to the playoffs. All i know is not all hope is lost, I've heard we've got a home draw... but against who I don't know. |
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Post by erasedcitizen on Oct 13, 2023 5:56:51 GMT
UEFA site says it'll be the highest ranking non-group-winner that we'll face (they're classing Finland and Ukraine as group winners). As it stands, that's Iceland.
From the above projections, it'd be Slovenia.
Very possible it could be Norway if just one of Finland or Israel qualify directly.
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Post by cogancoronation31 on Oct 13, 2023 6:19:16 GMT
Before getting ahead of ourselves, it really is worth pausing to consider whether Latvia can get a point in Turkey this Sunday night. I think a 0-0 is not out of the question. There will be pressure on the Turks.
That would make a huge difference to our automatic qualification chances, if we do the business against Croatia.
For info, here are the two most recent results for Latvia when playing on Turkish soil: 3-3 in March 2021 (2022 FIFA World Cup Qualification, Group G) and 1-1 in September 2015 (UEFA Euro 2016 Qualifying, Group A).
Yes, Turkey will be buoyed up by their win in Osijek - but so will the Latvians after their 10 men beat the 'up and coming' Armenians in Riga.
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Post by pclaude on Oct 13, 2023 7:14:54 GMT
Yeah looks like if we are all tied on 16 points, we win the group and Turkey come 2nd. Win 3 games and we're there. Simple! Shame that 2 of our 3 games are against the best teams in the group. We're fucked lads, sorry to say. If Turkey have qualified they’ll be half arsed. |
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Post by pclaude on Oct 13, 2023 7:21:03 GMT
Before getting ahead of ourselves, it really is worth pausing to consider whether Latvia can get a point in Turkey this Sunday night. I think a 0-0 is not out of the question. There will be pressure on the Turks. That would make a huge difference to our automatic qualification chances, if we do the business against Croatia. For info, here are the two most recent results for Latvia when playing on Turkish soil: 3-3 in March 2021 (2022 FIFA World Cup Qualification, Group G) and 1-1 in September 2015 (UEFA Euro 2016 Qualifying, Group A). Yes, Turkey will be buoyed up by their win in Osijek - but so will the Latvians after their 10 men beat the 'up and coming' Armenians in Riga. Turkey are through with a win. They wont be at us at full tilt. If they dont win they will need a result against us. I definitely want Turkey to win. |
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Post by jbt95 on Oct 13, 2023 7:27:14 GMT
The only danger with Turkey is they may want/need to win to get a better seeding in the final draw. They also are only playing a friendly while we have a long trip to Armenia.
One game at a time!
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Post by pclaude on Oct 13, 2023 7:27:34 GMT
…and we need Poland to beat Moldova on Sunday then Czechia in November to qualify automatically. That means we’ll get the kinder play off first home game against Estonia. How do people work these out? I'm completely lost when it comes to the playoffs. All i know is not all hope is lost, I've heard we've got a home draw... but against who I don't know. It’s also I think not right as Czechia are above us in the play off rankings so they’d be home to Estonia. Only thing I’d add is that I would much prefer Czechia to Poland in the play offs if we are there. Mad to think though that we’d be in the play offs because of results largely under Giggs. |
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Post by iot on Oct 13, 2023 7:44:27 GMT
Before getting ahead of ourselves, it really is worth pausing to consider whether Latvia can get a point in Turkey this Sunday night. I think a 0-0 is not out of the question. There will be pressure on the Turks. That would make a huge difference to our automatic qualification chances, if we do the business against Croatia. For info, here are the two most recent results for Latvia when playing on Turkish soil: 3-3 in March 2021 (2022 FIFA World Cup Qualification, Group G) and 1-1 in September 2015 (UEFA Euro 2016 Qualifying, Group A). Yes, Turkey will be buoyed up by their win in Osijek - but so will the Latvians after their 10 men beat the 'up and coming' Armenians in Riga. A couple of points. I don't think it would make a 'huge difference, as it would still mean that we would need 7 points and to beat Turkey by 3 goals. So only a Latvian win would make a huge difference (if I've understood it correctly). Secondly, I thought Turkey looked really good last night. Some people have spoken about how poor Croatia were but I disagree, I just think Turkey were better. They were tactically and technically brilliant and had plenty of threats up front. I think we all hoped that them sacking their manager was a sign of the imploding. Sadly, it looks like they had simply identified a better replacement. I really can't see them slipping up on Sunday and if we're being honest, they're a better side than us so will be going into that last game as trong favourites too |
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Post by jimexotic on Oct 13, 2023 8:36:16 GMT
I've accepted third place now, anything less than third place though would be a complete catastophe, I don't think I'm ever going to get over that Armenia defeat.
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Post by 1gwaunview on Oct 13, 2023 9:47:52 GMT
I've accepted third place now, anything less than third place though would be a complete catastophe, I don't think I'm ever going to get over that Armenia defeat. Agreed, that was a shocking, disgrace of a performance, one of the worst ever. Don't know what to expect on Sunday, but we need to be far more ruthless in the forward positions. Kieffer still remains our only real threat apart from dead ball situations (Broadhead's goal accepted). From the Gibraltar game, to me there seems to be a reluctance to have a shot at goal amongst the team. |
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Post by marsvolta on Oct 13, 2023 10:09:48 GMT
I've accepted third place now, anything less than third place though would be a complete catastophe, I don't think I'm ever going to get over that Armenia defeat. Same here, though the way results are going I wouldn’t be surprised if we end up at least four points behind second place, which would mean that we wouldn’t have qualified even if we had beaten Armenia. |
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Post by welshrover on Oct 13, 2023 10:26:07 GMT
I suppose the elephant in the room everyone is not saying is that perhaps Croatia may implode.
Everyone had them as runaway winners with the rest battling for the leftovers, maybe their team is not what it was.
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Post by njdragon on Oct 13, 2023 10:41:28 GMT
are we realistically better than turkey or croatia, No!
We should have beaten Armenia but we also shouldn't have drawn against croatia - freak results.
We'll probably end up where we deserve to be in terms of quality which is 3rd
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Post by fiveattheback on Oct 13, 2023 11:10:07 GMT
are we realistically better than turkey or croatia, No! We should have beaten Armenia but we also shouldn't have drawn against croatia - freak results. We'll probably end up where we deserve to be in terms of quality which is 3rd Probably not a great deal of difference between ourselves and Turkey quality wise, even with 10 we held out to a certain extent and they are prone to some poor results. Look through their squad and there's some decent players, but nothing special, which is similar to ourselves. I know that plenty of non-Welsh fans consider our squad to be pretty decent by international standards. We may complain about having Championship players, but as European leagues go it is up there quality wise The real shocker was Armenia and our complete inability to bring the match back under control when things didn't go our way, it was more evidence of the lack of discipline that has creeped into the side. There's no way we should have lost that one 4-2. We need to back ourselves and go for it from here, this isn't a vintage Croatia side and we shouldn't let them feel their way into the game on Sunday. Their confidence will have been rocked by the defeat to Turkey and an early goal from us could sink them |
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Post by welshrover on Oct 13, 2023 11:52:47 GMT
are we realistically better than turkey or croatia, No! We should have beaten Armenia but we also shouldn't have drawn against croatia - freak results. We'll probably end up where we deserve to be in terms of quality which is 3rd Probably not a great deal of difference between ourselves and Turkey quality wise, even with 10 we held out to a certain extent and they are prone to some poor results. Look through their squad and there's some decent players, but nothing special, which is similar to ourselves. I know that plenty of non-Welsh fans consider our squad to be pretty decent by international standards. We may complain about having Championship players, but as European leagues go it is up there quality wise The real shocker was Armenia and our complete inability to bring the match back under control when things didn't go our way, it was more evidence of the lack of discipline that has creeped into the side. There's no way we should have lost that one 4-2. We need to back ourselves and go for it from here, this isn't a vintage Croatia side and we shouldn't let them feel their way into the game on Sunday. Their confidence will have been rocked by the defeat to Turkey and an early goal from us could sink them You mention Championship players, I notice nearly every game in League 1 tomorrow is off for International Call Ups! I presume some will be Under 21? |
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Post by allezlesrouges on Oct 13, 2023 11:54:13 GMT
This Turkey result would have been a disaster even if we had beaten Armenia, so in a sense part of this is out of our hands
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llyn
the carls
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Post by llyn on Oct 13, 2023 12:42:04 GMT
This Turkey result would have been a disaster even if we had beaten Armenia, so in a sense part of this is out of our hands Correct and the Armenia result was awful but hardly unique for us. The Georgia - Russia 2018 and Estonia draw for last WC, considering our teams at the time were in many ways just as bad. Fact is we are re-building and although not a big fan of Page I'm not sure if anyone else would have done much better. The FAW must though use these next 3 games to judge if the manager is up to the job and the right man to be at the helm for the play-offs. |
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Post by jbt95 on Oct 13, 2023 12:54:56 GMT
This Turkey result would have been a disaster even if we had beaten Armenia, so in a sense part of this is out of our hands Correct and the Armenia result was awful but hardly unique for us. The Georgia - Russia 2018 and Estonia draw for last WC, considering our teams at the time were in many ways just as bad. Fact is we are re-building and although not a big fan of Page I'm not sure if anyone else would have done much better. The FAW must though use these next 3 games to judge if the manager is up to the job and the right man to be at the helm for the play-offs. Sorry but we aren’t rebuilding, we’ve lost experienced players and high quality players yes, but all the players that will start Sunday, other than James or Savage in midfield, will have played in at least two major tournaments. There’s no reason we can’t give Croatia a good game at the very least. |
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llyn
the carls
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Post by llyn on Oct 13, 2023 13:00:21 GMT
Correct and the Armenia result was awful but hardly unique for us. The Georgia - Russia 2018 and Estonia draw for last WC, considering our teams at the time were in many ways just as bad. Fact is we are re-building and although not a big fan of Page I'm not sure if anyone else would have done much better. The FAW must though use these next 3 games to judge if the manager is up to the job and the right man to be at the helm for the play-offs. Sorry but we aren’t rebuilding, we’ve lost experienced players and high quality players yes, but all the players that will start Sunday, other than James or Savage in midfield, will have played in at least two major tournaments. There’s no reason we can’t give Croatia a good game at the very least. I agree we have to and should be able to give Croatia a good game and it's important that Page is held to account in these last 3 games and the FAW must act if we don't do well enough. |
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Post by cymro on Oct 13, 2023 13:01:32 GMT
This Turkey result would have been a disaster even if we had beaten Armenia, so in a sense part of this is out of our hands If we'd beaten Armenia, a draw would be a good result this Sunday. As it is now we have to win. So that Armenia game was pretty damaging. |
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Post by winsumluzsum on Oct 13, 2023 13:48:04 GMT
I agree with iot that our chances of getting a win against Croatia are very small, especially as a draw would be enough for them. However, one thing in our favour is that there are only 3 days between matches for Croatia, and they have to travel. On top of that there is talk of Modric leaving Madrid, so perhaps, at 38, Father Time is finally catching up with him. We should certainly be fresher.
I understand from the text coverage of the Turkey game that Turkey started with a high press. Does Page have the nous to implement a similar strategy? Certainly in James, Wilson, Roberts and Williams we have the players to press high. Press for 30 minutes, look to get our noses in front, then drop deep and look to hit on the counter. Moore and James are our talismen, and can pose a challenge to any side. With them in the side we have a chance.
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Post by fiveattheback on Oct 13, 2023 14:25:11 GMT
This Turkey result would have been a disaster even if we had beaten Armenia, so in a sense part of this is out of our hands Had we beaten Armenia we'd be 3 points better off and level on points with Croatia. Turkey's win isn't ideal but the extra 3 points against Armenia would definitely change things for us. At the very least we'd still be in touch with Turkey & Croatia even if we lose Sunday, now it's a defeat and we're 99.9% finished, even if we draw we're probably done. That defeat is what's almost wrecked our campaign, not Croatia's. There's also the psychological factor of having to go to Armenia and beat them having shipped 4 goals at home to them |
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Post by iot on Oct 13, 2023 14:44:50 GMT
are we realistically better than turkey or croatia, No! We should have beaten Armenia but we also shouldn't have drawn against croatia - freak results. We'll probably end up where we deserve to be in terms of quality which is 3rd , even with 10 we held out to a certain extent and they are prone to some poor results. Look through their squad and there's some decent players, but nothing special, which is similar to ourselves. I know that plenty of non-Welsh fans consider our squad to be pretty decent by international standards. We may complain about having Championship players, but as European leagues go it is up there quality wise The real shocker was Armenia and our complete inability to bring the match back under control when things didn't go our way, it was more evidence of the lack of discipline that has creeped into the side. There's no way we should have lost that one 4-2. We need to back ourselves and go for it from here, this isn't a vintage Croatia side and we shouldn't let them feel their way into the game on Sunday. Their confidence will have been rocked by the defeat to Turkey and an early goal from us could sink them I disagree with this, and also don't agree with a fair few other comments that suggest Croatia are about to implode. I was really impressed by the quality on display in the game last night, and the main thing that stood out for me was the gulf in quality between us and those two sides. Croatia will likely regress with Modric coming to the end of his career and one or two others, but I would be prepared to put good money on them continuing to be a top 20 side for the foreseeable. They have Gvardiol at the back who is an excellent defender, their midfield is still brilliant, and even though they're not world beaters up front, they're still good enough to leave the likes of Petkovic (who's probably a slight upgrade on Moore) and Majer (an excellent player) on the bench in the game last night. So even up front, they have more than what we can offer. Sorry, I don't want to be all doom and gloom, just concerned that a lot of fans are in for a rude awakening. I really don't know how people could have watched that game last night and think that there isn't much difference between us and Turkey. I just think there's a stark difference in quality |
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Post by winsumluzsum on Oct 13, 2023 14:56:07 GMT
I didn't see the game but I trust your judgement on this. However you could have said the same of the Belgium side we beat in qualifying and in the quarter finals.
Let's just focus on the Croatia game for now. Our chance of beating them is admittedly small, but we shouldn't be defeatist. Moore has proven himself a handful against decent opposition in the past, most notably Slovakia, I can see him, with James, doing damage against Croatia, if we feed him quality balls.
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