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Post by winsumluzsum on Nov 21, 2024 15:05:20 GMT
The remaining Pot 3 countries we could be drawn against have been whittled down to: Albania, North Macedonia, Finland, Northern Ireland, Israel, Bosnia and, Montenegro.
The remaining pot 4 countries are: Belarus, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Estonia, Cyprus, Faroes, and Lithuania.
I guess Albania and Israel are the countries to avoid from Pot 3, with North Macedonia perhaps the best draw. I know it's tempting fate, but we really should be good enough to beat any of the pot 4 countries (contrast with Turkey from pot 4 last time if my memory serves) twice.
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Post by winsumluzsum on Nov 21, 2024 15:06:15 GMT
Israel beat Belgium at home in league A, so must have a decent side.
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Post by welshlad on Nov 21, 2024 15:06:20 GMT
Worse case
Spain
Wales
Albania
Kazakhstan
Moldova
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Post by welshlad on Nov 21, 2024 15:09:19 GMT
Israel beat Belgium at home in league A, so must have a decent side. Fair point, edited |
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Post by winsumluzsum on Nov 21, 2024 15:10:06 GMT
Best case:
Austria
Wales
North Macedonia
Faroe Islands
San Marino
Worst case:
England
Wales
Albania
Kazakhstan
Moldova
Even the worst case scenario should see us finish second comfortably.
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Post by welshlad on Nov 21, 2024 15:36:05 GMT
Yes aim at least 2nd as will more than likely be home in the semis of a playoff. If we finish in the top 8 out of 12 best runners up..let's just win the group to keep it simple aha
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Post by iot on Nov 21, 2024 16:17:46 GMT
Summary of WC draw - with thanks to dragonsoccer dragonsoccer.co.uk/newsite/index.php?id=1007WORLD CUP NOTES Wales are seeded in Pot 2, and because there are 6 Nations League play off teams also in Pot 2, Wales will be allocated into a 5 nation group (Group number 7-12). To note Nations League play-off teams from Pots 2, 3 and 4 are prioritised to 4 nations groups (Group number 1-6) Wales therefore cannot be drawn with nations from Pot 3 (Scotland, Slovenia, ROI, Georgia, Iceland) and from Pot 4 (Bulgaria, Kosovo, Luxembourg, Armenia, Latvia)
The full original post here Good stuff, I’m certainly not complaining that we won’t be facing ROI from Pot 3 and Armenia from Pot 4! |
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Post by manulike on Nov 21, 2024 16:50:59 GMT
Best case. Austria Wales Bosnia & Herzegovina Faroe Islands San Marino An away double-header in June of Denmark and Faroe would be nice ;-) |
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Post by winsumluzsum on Nov 21, 2024 16:52:00 GMT
Summary of WC draw - with thanks to dragonsoccer dragonsoccer.co.uk/newsite/index.php?id=1007WORLD CUP NOTES Wales are seeded in Pot 2, and because there are 6 Nations League play off teams also in Pot 2, Wales will be allocated into a 5 nation group (Group number 7-12). To note Nations League play-off teams from Pots 2, 3 and 4 are prioritised to 4 nations groups (Group number 1-6) Wales therefore cannot be drawn with nations from Pot 3 (Scotland, Slovenia, ROI, Georgia, Iceland) and from Pot 4 (Bulgaria, Kosovo, Luxembourg, Armenia, Latvia)
The full original post here Good stuff, I’m certainly not complaining that we won’t be facing ROI from Pot 3 and Armenia from Pot 4! Sorry to be picky, but surely Scotland are much more of a challenge than ROI? Their squad and recent performances don't strike me as offering much of a threat. |
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Post by manulike on Nov 21, 2024 16:53:57 GMT
Israel beat Belgium at home in league A, so must have a decent side. They also drew 0-0 v France in Paris ... "home" games for them have been in Hungary (as is the case with Belarus). |
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Post by manulike on Nov 21, 2024 17:08:04 GMT
Summary of WC draw - with thanks to dragonsoccer dragonsoccer.co.uk/newsite/index.php?id=1007WORLD CUP NOTES Wales are seeded in Pot 2, and because there are 6 Nations League play off teams also in Pot 2, Wales will be allocated into a 5 nation group (Group number 7-12). To note Nations League play-off teams from Pots 2, 3 and 4 are prioritised to 4 nations groups (Group number 1-6) Wales therefore cannot be drawn with nations from Pot 3 (Scotland, Slovenia, ROI, Georgia, Iceland) and from Pot 4 (Bulgaria, Kosovo, Luxembourg, Armenia, Latvia)
The full original pots here Good stuff, I’m certainly not complaining that we won’t be facing ROI from Pot 3 and Armenia from Pot 4! We also can not be drawn V any of the FOUR NL SEMI FINALISTS ... So we are practically one foot in North America already ;-))
dragonsoccer - I imagine that in the draw on 13 December, TWO of the five-team six groups (Groups numbers 7-12) wil have a "QF loser" ticket, and the four "QF winners" and the other two losers will be in groups 1-6 ... Or am I too logical?? |
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Post by eppingblue1 on Nov 21, 2024 17:40:11 GMT
Israel beat Belgium at home in league A, so must have a decent side. They also drew 0-0 v France in Paris ... "home" games for them have been in Hungary (as is the case with Belarus). Do you know why the Belarus games are played behind closed doors while the Israel games can have been played in front of crowds albeit small. There's some very small away allocation amongst the possibilities. My preferences would be North Macedonia, Cyprus, and Malta out of 3,4 and 5. |
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Post by manulike on Nov 21, 2024 18:14:28 GMT
They also drew 0-0 v France in Paris ... "home" games for them have been in Hungary (as is the case with Belarus). Do you know why the Belarus games are played behind closed doors while the Israel games can have been played in front of crowds albeit small. There's some very small away allocation amongst the possibilities. My preferences would be North Macedonia, Cyprus, and Malta out of 3,4 and 5. I havn't looked at the Israeli NL campaign at the 8k Boszik Arena in Budapest, but I remember them bringing 3k-4k crowds last year for their very successful Euros close qualifications. Budapest has about 20k Israeli residents and another 45k local Jews.
As for Belarus - I don't really know, but assume that their potential crowds are much lower, and do not justify the policing outlay?
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Post by vvm on Nov 21, 2024 19:47:04 GMT
Is there a scenario in all this where a team would be better served by losing their nations league quarter final in order to fall into a more favourable world cup qualifying group?
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Post by morg on Nov 21, 2024 19:54:56 GMT
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Post by morg on Nov 21, 2024 20:01:00 GMT
Is there a scenario in all this where a team would be better served by losing their nations league quarter final in order to fall into a more favourable world cup qualifying group? I guess so IF specific quarter finalists are assigned to specific WC groups? e.g. QF1 loser will play in group x, QF1 winner will play in group y etc. I guess the NL QFs would be too intent on winning the NL trophy mind, so hopefully academic. |
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Post by gwernybwch on Nov 21, 2024 21:40:11 GMT
Good stuff, I’m certainly not complaining that we won’t be facing ROI from Pot 3 and Armenia from Pot 4! We also can not be drawn V any of the FOUR NL SEMI FINALISTS ... So we are practically one foot in North America already ;-))
Where is your source for this? According to the stato on Twitter this is currently the options for our draw? If I am reading it right, there is the potential of when the draw is made, we might not know who our Pot 1 opponents might be?  |
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Post by hc16040 on Nov 21, 2024 21:53:50 GMT
Israel beat Belgium at home in league A, so must have a decent side. Tbf this Belgium team is much worse than the one we're used to playing against |
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Post by manulike on Nov 21, 2024 22:01:49 GMT
We also can not be drawn V any of the FOUR NL SEMI FINALISTS ... So we are practically one foot in North America already ;-))
Where is your source for this? According to the stato on Twitter this is currently the options for our draw? If I am reading it right, there is the potential of when the draw is made, we might not know who our Pot 1 opponents might be? View AttachmentWiki page Additionally, as the four quarter-final winners will compete in the 2025 UEFA Nations League Finals in June, they cannot begin World Cup qualifying until September and must therefore be drawn into four-team groups.[14]
PAGE 5 says: Competition-related reasons
To allow the parallel scheduling of EQ and UNL matches in March and June 2025, the following
conditions are implemented for the allocation of teams to either groups of four or five:
Pot 1: the four UNL QF winners must be drawn into a group of four.
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Post by gwernybwch on Nov 21, 2024 22:12:14 GMT
Where is your source for this? According to the stato on Twitter this is currently the options for our draw? If I am reading it right, there is the potential of when the draw is made, we might not know who our Pot 1 opponents might be? View AttachmentWiki page Additionally, as the four quarter-final winners will compete in the 2025 UEFA Nations League Finals in June, they cannot begin World Cup qualifying until September and must therefore be drawn into four-team groups.[14]
If the Nations League play-off draw is tomorrow, but the knock-out games aren't until March, there is a possibility that when the WC qualifiers draw is made in December we won't know who from Pot 1 we have drawn? Unless we draw, England, Belgium, Switzerland or Austria? Have I got that that right? |
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Post by manulike on Nov 21, 2024 22:16:39 GMT
Wiki page Additionally, as the four quarter-final winners will compete in the 2025 UEFA Nations League Finals in June, they cannot begin World Cup qualifying until September and must therefore be drawn into four-team groups.[14]
If the Nations League play-off draw is tomorrow, but the knock-out games aren't until March, there is a possibility that when the WC qualifiers draw is made in December we won't know who from Pot 1 we have drawn? Unless we draw, England, Belgium, Switzerland or Austria? Have I got that that right? My understanding is, that either those four or the four loser teams from QF "UNL QF defeated team"
That pdf also says that
Pot 1 teams which are not involved in the UNL QF or play-offs may have to be drawn in groups of
five. Indeed, depending on the distribution of the UNL PO participants across pots 2, 3 and 4, it
may be necessary to add additional conditions to Pot 1 teams in order to ensure that in addition
to groups of four, one or more groups of five are made available to contain UNL PO teams drawn
from the subsequent pots.
Thus, my understanding is that as we are already in a group of five and there are six groups of five, we have 4/6 chance to know our opponant and 2/6 chance, not to...
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Post by dragonsoccer on Nov 22, 2024 7:47:22 GMT
Pot 1 draw example
Group of 4 (1-6)
Group of 5 (7-12)
UNL Semi finalists must go into a 4 nation group
UNL QF draw
Spain v Croatia is drawn today (to be played during MD 1 and M2)
if Spain are drawn 1st they go in Group 1 (involved in UNL QF)
if England are drawn 2nd they go in Group 2
if Croatia are drawn 3rd they would go in Group 7
etc
Spain and Croatia are paired
if Spain qualify for the semi finals ( MD3 and MD4) they would stay in Group 1 and Croatia allocated to Group 7
if Croatia qualify for the semi finals ( MD3 and MD4) they would move to Group 1 and Spain allocated to Group 7
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Post by morg on Nov 22, 2024 8:13:38 GMT
Pot 1 draw example Group of 4 (1-6) Group of 5 (7-12) UNL Semi finalists must go into a 4 nation group UNL QF draw Spain v Croatia is drawn today (to be played during MD 1 and M2) if Spain are drawn 1st they go in Group 1 (involved in UNL QF) if England are drawn 2nd they go in Group 2 if Croatia are drawn 3rd they would go in Group 7 etc Spain and Croatia are paired if Spain qualify for the semi finals ( MD3 and MD4) they would stay in Group 1 and Croatia allocated to Group 7 if Croatia qualify for the semi finals ( MD3 and MD4) they would move to Group 1 and Spain allocated to Group 7 Diolch! So re vvm"s point above, in this example, if Spain felt that group 7 was an easier route than group 1, they could in theory opt to lose the NL QF? |
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Post by dragonsoccer on Nov 22, 2024 8:23:18 GMT
in theory yes  Pot 1 2 non UNL QF must also go into a 4 nation group (1-6) (England, Belgium, Switzerland and Austria) so after the UNL play off and QF in March all the groups will be fully known 4 nation groups (1-6) will have 4 UNL semi finalists (which are played in June) and 2 non UNL QF (from above) thats my reading of it for Pot 1 |
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Post by jbt95 on Nov 22, 2024 8:47:25 GMT
Pot 1 draw example Group of 4 (1-6) Group of 5 (7-12) UNL Semi finalists must go into a 4 nation group UNL QF draw Spain v Croatia is drawn today (to be played during MD 1 and M2) if Spain are drawn 1st they go in Group 1 (involved in UNL QF) if England are drawn 2nd they go in Group 2 if Croatia are drawn 3rd they would go in Group 7 etc Spain and Croatia are paired if Spain qualify for the semi finals ( MD3 and MD4) they would stay in Group 1 and Croatia allocated to Group 7 if Croatia qualify for the semi finals ( MD3 and MD4) they would move to Group 1 and Spain allocated to Group 7 Diolch! So re vvm"s point above, in this example, if Spain felt that group 7 was an easier route than group 1, they could in theory opt to lose the NL QF? It’s unlikely any pot 1 team in the nations league QFs will be worried about whatever teams they draw. |
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Post by winsumluzsum on Nov 22, 2024 8:52:29 GMT
I was about to make exactly the same point. None of the pot 2 or 3 countries will strike fear into a pot 1 country. Yes Norway and Scotland look relatively strong in their pots but aren't special.
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Post by morg on Nov 22, 2024 9:25:28 GMT
I was about to make exactly the same point. None of the pot 2 or 3 countries will strike fear into a pot 1 country. Yes Norway and Scotland look relatively strong in their pots but aren't special. Agreed. I was just checking on the logic. It just seems strange that it's left open to any 'manipulation'. Not much choice I guess. |
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Post by manulike on Nov 22, 2024 12:20:32 GMT
Nations League quarter-final drawQuarter-final 1: The Netherlands v SpainQuarter-final 2: Croatia v FranceQuarter-final 3: Denmark v Portugal Quarter-final 4: Italy v GermanySemi-final 1: Winner of QF4 v Winner of QF3 Semi-final 2: Winner of QF1 v Winner of QF2
Personally, I would much rather get Austria or the Swiss from pot 1 - and be able to book/plan ahead. My understanding is, that we can still draw Belgium from pot 1 - and that would be finger licking stuff ;-)
If we have to get a QF losing team, then would prefer avoiding QF1, QF4 and France.
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Post by dragonsoccer on Nov 22, 2024 13:16:54 GMT
Pot 1 draw example Group of 4 (1-6) Group of 5 (7-12) UNL Semi finalists must go into a 4 nation group UNL QF draw Spain v Croatia is drawn today (to be played during MD 1 and M2) if Spain are drawn 1st they go in Group 1 (involved in UNL QF) if England are drawn 2nd they go in Group 2 if Croatia are drawn 3rd they would go in Group 7 etc Spain and Croatia are paired if Spain qualify for the semi finals ( MD3 and MD4) they would stay in Group 1 and Croatia allocated to Group 7 if Croatia qualify for the semi finals ( MD3 and MD4) they would move to Group 1 and Spain allocated to Group 7 With Pot 1 coming out first we will roughly know before the start of the Pot 2 draw which nation will we will be playing once Wales are drawn we will go into the first available pot from 7 upwards for example if we are 1st out we would go into Group 7 if Sweden and Norway have been drawn we would go into Group 9 |
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Post by iot on Nov 22, 2024 17:28:02 GMT
I think one thing’s for certain, if we want to qualify automatically we will need to be better. We averaged 2 points per game in the NL campaign. Looking at the 5 team groups for the last WC qualifiers, the minimum needed to finish top was 18pts. So that’s 6 wins or 5 wins and 3 draws to be in with a chance. That will be very tough
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