|
|
Post by insertname on Mar 26, 2021 13:44:48 GMT
Why can't we just concentrate on doing the best we can and aim for the highest we can? I'll be very disappointed if we finished anything less than 2nd tbh. Yes of course. But my point is, which of the below is going to best describe your feelings on Tuesday if we lose to Czechs... a) Fuck! Shit! Nooooo - we are screwed now, qualification looking really tough, my week is ruined!!!! or b) oh never mind, we've got a playoff anyway. Not to worry. Reviewing the history of Welsh football nothing less can be expected than France having a nightmare, finishing second and we draw them at home as our play off opponent. |
|
|
|
Post by cogancoronation31 on Mar 26, 2021 13:45:03 GMT
We can't think about losing to Czechia.
As dai says, we've got to be winning all our home games in the qualifying group.
|
|
|
|
Post by squatter1 on Mar 26, 2021 13:49:36 GMT
We can't think about losing to Czechia. As dai says, we've got to be winning all our home games in the qualifying group. I think you and Dai are missing the point. The point is not 'the team shouldn't worry about trying to win anymore' The point is 'we as fans don't have anything near the drama and jeopardy to enjoy/endure during this campaign thanks to the Nations League' |
|
|
|
Post by eppingblue1 on Mar 26, 2021 13:52:34 GMT
We will be seeded if we finish second, unseeded if not We have a very good chance of being seeded if we finish second (6 of the 10 top 2nd place teams will be seeded). If we don't finish 2nd, we will certainly be unseeded. As eppingblue described above, the difference between seeded and unseeded will range from a home game (they're one-legged playoffs) against the likes of hungary or russia, and an away game to Switzerland or Poland i.e. from us being significant favourities to significant underdogs. So there is a lot riding on it 3 groups of 4 teams so I assume its the top 3 seed 1 down to the bottom 3 seed 4 which will include the 2 nations league places. If it finished along the current rankings then we are 3rd and would just scrape into that top seeded group. Lot of speculation though. A bad Euros, ranking drops and that group has gone, we'll be in the 2nd or 3rd seeded group. As an aside, this new ranking system pretty much means everything counts and will count for ever. There is no reduction in relevance with time. So the points we win or lose tomorrow against Mexico will count the same in the ranking table next month as they will when they determine our group when we've qualified for the 2026 finals in America. Not many points with it being friendly but winning lots of friendlies over time against lesser opposition could have a cumulative benefit. Against which you don't have the testing you need against better opposition. |
|
|
|
Post by dai on Mar 26, 2021 14:02:30 GMT
We can't think about losing to Czechia. As dai says, we've got to be winning all our home games in the qualifying group. I think you and Dai are missing the point. The point is not 'the team shouldn't worry about trying to win anymore' The point is 'we as fans don't have anything near the drama and jeopardy to enjoy/endure during this campaign thanks to the Nations League' No, I get your point completely. However my point still stands that we should be aiming to finish as high as possible, and winning at home should still be high on the priority list. Also it does nothing for morale losing games. The playoff is also not 100% guaranteed......we saw what happened in the previous qualifying campaign where we played for draws and hoped results go our way. You make your own destiny. |
|
|
|
Post by jbt95 on Mar 26, 2021 16:35:44 GMT
Ok, so we are playing all these tough matches in the qualifying campaign essentially for the difference between playing Poland away, or Hungary at home. I'm sorry, but realistically that is not exactly a massive incentive. It's hard to realistically sell that as 'a lot riding on it'. Are you crazy? Poland away is one of the toughest games in international football. We just beat Hungary at home. I'd rather play at home in any situation. Hopefully we can have a full CCS roaring us on, not away in some 60k seater stadium with a tiny pocket of fans. Worse case scenario is playing the semi away and then the final away. If that happened I doubt we would progress. |
|
|
|
Post by sleepy on Mar 26, 2021 17:33:09 GMT
We will be seeded if we finish second, unseeded if not Only the best 6 of the 10 2nd places teams will be seeded. The 4 worst 2nd place + the 2 nations league group winners will be unseeded. Even if we finish 2nd, I think we'd struggle to get in the top 6. I can't see us getting more than 16/17 points and that's best case. According to We Global Football on twitter, out of 1000 simulations, on 982 we were in the playoffs, 16 of the we won the group, and 2 of them we missed out completely. So we are 99.8% assured at least a playoff place, that's good enough for me. If we fail to win v the Czechs, the last 6 games in this group are basically only for FIFA ranking points. Win all 6, lose all 6... no difference from a qualification point of view. |
|
|
|
Post by jbt95 on Mar 26, 2021 17:41:34 GMT
Wrong format
|
|
|
|
Post by jbt95 on Mar 26, 2021 17:45:33 GMT
We will be seeded if we finish second, unseeded if not Only the best 6 of the 10 2nd places teams will be seeded. The 4 worst 2nd place + the 2 nations league group winners will be unseeded. Even if we finish 2nd, I think we'd struggle to get in the top 6. I can't see us getting more than 16/17 points and that's best case. 16 points would see us finish in the top 6 for sure. We should be getting at least 14 points if we are serious about going to Qatar. Hopefully 18, 19 or 21. If you look at the 2018 groups (all were six team groups, so I have taken away their point tallies v the sixth team... which is what will happen come November to the six team groups in these qualifiers.. in all groups the 2nd place side beat the 6th place home and away) these were the totals for second place - A) 13 points B) 21 points (Switzerland had 27 pts but missed out on auto by GD!) C) 13 points D) 13 points E) 14 points F) 12 points G) 17 points H) 13 points I) 14 points Even with the Swiss, that's an average of 14.44 points. Remove them and it is 13.63. In other words, if we win Tuesday and do the double over Estonia and Belarus, we have one foot in a home semi. |
|
|
|
Post by sleepy on Mar 26, 2021 17:59:57 GMT
Only the best 6 of the 10 2nd places teams will be seeded. The 4 worst 2nd place + the 2 nations league group winners will be unseeded. Even if we finish 2nd, I think we'd struggle to get in the top 6. I can't see us getting more than 16/17 points and that's best case. 16 points would see us finish in the top 6 for sure. We should be getting at least 14 points. Hopefully 18, 19 or 21. If you look at the 2018 groups (all were six team groups, so I have taken away their point tallies v the sixth team... which is what will happen come November to the six team groups in these qualifiers.. in all groups the 2nd place side beat the 6th place home and away) these were the totals for second place - A) 13 points B) 21 points (Switzerland had 27 pts but missed out on auto by GD!) C) 13 points D) 13 points E) 14 points F) 12 points G) 17 points H) 13 points I) 14 points Even with the Swiss, that's an average of 14.44 points. Remove them and it is 13.63. Yeah you are right, 16+ will surely be enough, the cutoff for seedings will probably be the 14/15 points mark. I am not sure if being seeded will be a huge benefit though. The seeded teams will be those with the easiest groups. E.g. one of Netherlands/Norway/Turkey will probably be unseeded, and maybe one of Sweden/Italy too. I'm not convinced any of the remaining games have any real benefit, other than ranking points. |
|
|
|
Post by jbt95 on Mar 26, 2021 18:08:18 GMT
16 points would see us finish in the top 6 for sure. We should be getting at least 14 points. Hopefully 18, 19 or 21. If you look at the 2018 groups (all were six team groups, so I have taken away their point tallies v the sixth team... which is what will happen come November to the six team groups in these qualifiers.. in all groups the 2nd place side beat the 6th place home and away) these were the totals for second place - A) 13 points B) 21 points (Switzerland had 27 pts but missed out on auto by GD!) C) 13 points D) 13 points E) 14 points F) 12 points G) 17 points H) 13 points I) 14 points Even with the Swiss, that's an average of 14.44 points. Remove them and it is 13.63. Yeah you are right, 16+ will surely be enough, the cutoff for seedings will probably be the 14/15 points mark. I am not sure if being seeded will be a huge benefit though. The seeded teams will be those with the easiest groups. E.g. one of Netherlands/Norway/Turkey will probably be unseeded, and maybe one of Sweden/Italy too. I'm not convinced any of the remaining games have any real benefit, other than ranking points. Yes there could be some strong unseeded teams, but at least we would be at home. Also, there's a decent chance of drawing one of two group winners from League B of the nations league (Czech Republic again would most likely be one). Being home in a one legged game is surely a benefit? |
|
|
|
Post by sleepy on Mar 26, 2021 19:13:28 GMT
Yeah you are right, 16+ will surely be enough, the cutoff for seedings will probably be the 14/15 points mark. I am not sure if being seeded will be a huge benefit though. The seeded teams will be those with the easiest groups. E.g. one of Netherlands/Norway/Turkey will probably be unseeded, and maybe one of Sweden/Italy too. I'm not convinced any of the remaining games have any real benefit, other than ranking points. Yes there could be some strong unseeded teams, but at least we would be at home. Also, there's a decent chance of drawing one of two group winners from League B of the nations league (Czech Republic again would most likely be one). Being home in a one legged game is surely a benefit? Yes I agree, being at home in a 1 off game would be a bonus. |
|
|
|
Post by dai on Mar 26, 2021 19:18:48 GMT
Were we second seeds for this group?? I can't remember.
|
|
|
|
Post by sleepy on Mar 26, 2021 19:32:59 GMT
Were we second seeds for this group?? I can't remember. Yes |
|
|
|
Post by dai on Mar 26, 2021 20:24:47 GMT
Were we second seeds for this group?? I can't remember. Yes If that's the case, the minimum I would expect is second place in this group. So beating the Czechs home is a must. |
|
|
|
Post by underwood on Mar 27, 2021 9:46:10 GMT
Covid has accelerated many aspects of life & another such example is the marginalisation of International football.
The football calendar has been redrawn throughout the pandemic & the tv companies have taken the opportunity to essentially tailor leagues for their benefit & I can see it becoming the status quo.
The Premier League has a game nearly every day of the week for example - nearly all with staggered kick-offs too - & when you throw in the new European club competition there is going to be football 24/7.
All of which leads to International football being reduced to end of season & just a few very short windows, windows that club managers will see as an opportunity for their players to have a rest.
|
|
|
|
Post by ger93 on Mar 27, 2021 10:57:37 GMT
I assume we need Belgium to beat Czech tonight and let them run away with top spot.
Any truth in the fact that Czech will be missing all Bundesliga players against Belgium and Wales?
|
|
|
|
Post by squatter1 on Mar 27, 2021 11:33:29 GMT
I assume we need Belgium to beat Czech tonight and let them run away with top spot. Any truth in the fact that Czech will be missing all Bundesliga players against Belgium and Wales? Given that the difference for us finishing second or fifth is minimal (ie playoff), perhaps a result for the Czechs is best as it keeps us in the running for first place (however much of a pipe dream that ultimately is) |
|
|
|
Post by walesgolfmadrid on Mar 27, 2021 11:43:11 GMT
Ok, so we are playing all these tough matches in the qualifying campaign essentially for the difference between playing Poland away, or Hungary at home. I'm sorry, but realistically that is not exactly a massive incentive. It's hard to realistically sell that as 'a lot riding on it'. Especially since a) we could finish second and not get seeded (therefore entire campaign a waste of time), or b) some of the unseeded teams will be stronger than the seeded sides, again presenting the possibility of essentially rendering qualifying 2nd pointless. While I am obviously delighted we have a playoff already nailed, you've got to accept that the jeopardy and drama in the group has been completely eviscerated for us (unless of course we can push Belgium for first place, which is a pipe dream). Whereas in all previous WC campaigns, missing out on 2nd place and a playoff has been a cause for agony and anguish, this time round it will just provoke a shrug of the shoulders and 'never mind, we've got a playoff anyway'. Hardly the stuff of great drama. Considering that we haven't qualified since 1958, and that playing Poland away would in my view give us about a 20-30% chance of getting through, whereas playing Hungary at home would give us a 70-80% chance, I certainly think there's a lot riding on it But that's if there is a difference, and we are seeded by finishing second. There's a decent chance it'd leave us in the same boat. It's not to say that these games don't matter, or that we're going to be doing anything other than giving everything to get a result, but just that the most important game has already been played in terms of a play-off spot. The importance of the Finland game in November, was just as big as the Ireland game in Cardiff 2017. |
|
|
|
Post by jbt95 on Mar 27, 2021 12:08:07 GMT
I assume we need Belgium to beat Czech tonight and let them run away with top spot. Any truth in the fact that Czech will be missing all Bundesliga players against Belgium and Wales? Given that the difference for us finishing second or fifth is minimal (ie playoff), perhaps a result for the Czechs is best as it keeps us in the running for first place (however much of a pipe dream that ultimately is) I can't believe you think an away semi final is a minimal difference. We'd have a decent shot at playing Austria, Czech Republic or Hungary at home, rather than potentially somebody like Ukraine, Croatia, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Poland, Turkey away. |
|
|
|
Post by jackanapes on Mar 27, 2021 18:07:33 GMT
Turkey are 2 up in Norway at half time. We’ve got some real tough games this summer!
|
|
|
|
Post by underwood on Mar 27, 2021 18:19:14 GMT
Turkey are 2 up in Norway at half time. We’ve got some real tough games this summer! Make it 3-0. Off the back of a victory over the Dutch too. We are not going to win a game at the Euros are we? |
|
|
|
Post by welshrover on Mar 27, 2021 18:30:28 GMT
Turkey are 2 up in Norway at half time. We’ve got some real tough games this summer! Make it 3-0. Off the back of a victory over the Dutch too. We are not going to win a game at the Euros are we? Can't see it. |
|
|
|
Post by quetzal on Mar 27, 2021 18:32:09 GMT
Different pressure in the Euros though. Tournament football is different to a qualifying campaign.
|
|
|
|
Post by CrackityJones on Mar 27, 2021 18:35:13 GMT
Fair play to Turkey, form team in Europe right now
|
|
|
|
Post by manulike on Mar 27, 2021 20:55:06 GMT
Make it 3-0. Off the back of a victory over the Dutch too. We are not going to win a game at the Euros are we? Can't see it. Oh yes we will. Just need to get Will Vaulks back in the team and we will show em all! |
|
|
|
Post by CrackityJones on Mar 27, 2021 20:55:07 GMT
Czechs beating Belgium!
|
|
|
|
Post by underwood on Mar 27, 2021 20:58:21 GMT
Belgium need to get their act together or we are really up against it.
|
|
|
|
Post by conwy10 on Mar 27, 2021 20:59:24 GMT
Turkey are 2 up in Norway at half time. We’ve got some real tough games this summer! Make it 3-0. Off the back of a victory over the Dutch too. We are not going to win a game at the Euros are we? Good thing not having a game in Turkey though. I watched the highlights of the Netherlands match and I think maybe the ref had one of Erdogans personal bodyguards watching over him. A lot of questionable decisions. Although he might have some influence in Baku. |
|
|
|
Post by welshrover on Mar 27, 2021 20:59:52 GMT
Malta ahead in Slovakia!!
|
|
