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Post by allezlesrouges on Nov 13, 2020 0:54:30 GMT
Looks like we haven't played Greece since 1965, the longest of any side we have faced before. We also haven't played...
...Malta since 1998, Turkey since 1997, Faroe Islands since 1993, Romania since 1993
We've never played; Kazakhstan, Gibraltar, Kosovo or Lithuania - so would be good to play any one of these
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Post by quetzal on Nov 13, 2020 0:59:30 GMT
Looks like we haven't played Greece since 1965, the longest of any side we have faced before. We also haven't played... ...Malta since 1998, Turkey since 1997, Faroe Islands since 1993, Romania since 1993 We've never played; Kazakhstan, Gibraltar, Kosovo or Lithuania - so would be good to play any one of these Romania. That will bring some skeletons out of the cupboard. |
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Post by allezlesrouges on Nov 13, 2020 1:01:38 GMT
Looks like we haven't played Greece since 1965, the longest of any side we have faced before. We also haven't played... ...Malta since 1998, Turkey since 1997, Faroe Islands since 1993, Romania since 1993 We've never played; Kazakhstan, Gibraltar, Kosovo or Lithuania - so would be good to play any one of these Romania. That will bring some skeletons out of the cupboard. Yeah as I was looking it up I thought "hang on, we haven't played Romania since..." *oh* |
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Post by superunknown on Nov 13, 2020 8:47:03 GMT
I’m out of the loop. Do we have a chance of winning one of the two play off places up for grabs through the nations league? Absolutely. The highest rank we can attain this time round is 17th (with the 16 places above us in League A). We're currently 18th with only the Scots above us. Ideally we could do with two wins and we'd have a great chance of 17th so if we didn't qualify in the top two of our qualification group and all or almost all of League A qualified in the top two we'd have a great chance of a playoff spot. Bosnia are a bit of a worry as they're playing woeful football at the moment, Iceland aren't the team they used to be either. But hopefully we finish top two so we don't have to worry about it but it would be a nice back up! |
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Post by erasedcitizen on Nov 13, 2020 8:55:26 GMT
I’m out of the loop. Do we have a chance of winning one of the two play off places up for grabs through the nations league? Absolutely. The highest rank we can attain this time round is 17th (with the 16 places above us in League A). We're currently 18th with only the Scots above us. Ideally we could do with two wins and we'd have a great chance of 17th so if we didn't qualify in the top two of our qualification group and all or almost all of League A qualified in the top two we'd have a great chance of a playoff spot. Bosnia are a bit of a worry as they're playing woeful football at the moment, Iceland aren't the team they used to be either. But hopefully we finish top two so we don't have to worry about it but it would be a nice back up! Teams that come 2nd in League A don't qualify for the playoffs above us, just the ones that finish top so it's even better. |
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Post by impeachabull on Nov 13, 2020 8:56:20 GMT
Iceland can't make the playoffs via the Nations League. It's group winners only, and they're already relegated. Without doing all the permutations, Bosnia possibly(?) could but it's very, very unlikely.
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Post by walesgolfmadrid on Nov 13, 2020 13:56:39 GMT
I’m out of the loop. Do we have a chance of winning one of the two play off places up for grabs through the nations league? Absolutely. The highest rank we can attain this time round is 17th (with the 16 places above us in League A). We're currently 18th with only the Scots above us. Ideally we could do with two wins and we'd have a great chance of 17th so if we didn't qualify in the top two of our qualification group and all or almost all of League A qualified in the top two we'd have a great chance of a playoff spot. Bosnia are a bit of a worry as they're playing woeful football at the moment, Iceland aren't the team they used to be either. But hopefully we finish top two so we don't have to worry about it but it would be a nice back up! We're only going to be concerned with the group winners in League A, who will all get top two for sure. If we win our Nations League Group, we're overwhelmingly likely to be getting a play off spot. |
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Post by erasedcitizen on Nov 13, 2020 14:13:43 GMT
Absolutely. The highest rank we can attain this time round is 17th (with the 16 places above us in League A). We're currently 18th with only the Scots above us. Ideally we could do with two wins and we'd have a great chance of 17th so if we didn't qualify in the top two of our qualification group and all or almost all of League A qualified in the top two we'd have a great chance of a playoff spot. Bosnia are a bit of a worry as they're playing woeful football at the moment, Iceland aren't the team they used to be either. But hopefully we finish top two so we don't have to worry about it but it would be a nice back up! We're only going to be concerned with the group winners in League A, who will all get top two for sure. If we win our Nations League Group, we're overwhelmingly likely to be getting a play off spot. Anyone seen this? |
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Post by allezlesrouges on Nov 13, 2020 14:37:03 GMT
Absolutely. The highest rank we can attain this time round is 17th (with the 16 places above us in League A). We're currently 18th with only the Scots above us. Ideally we could do with two wins and we'd have a great chance of 17th so if we didn't qualify in the top two of our qualification group and all or almost all of League A qualified in the top two we'd have a great chance of a playoff spot. Bosnia are a bit of a worry as they're playing woeful football at the moment, Iceland aren't the team they used to be either. But hopefully we finish top two so we don't have to worry about it but it would be a nice back up! We're only going to be concerned with the group winners in League A, who will all get top two for sure. If we win our Nations League Group, we're overwhelmingly likely to be getting a play off spot. For those who aren't sure what the permutations are, it's essentially a race between; Wales/Finland Austria/Norway Scotland As we've all dropped points only once & are in the running to win our groups. The 2 best league B group winners get a playoff place (at the moment that is us and Scotland with 10 points) Scotland play Israel (A) & Slovakia (A), if they win both they will be guaranteed a playoff spot. If they drop points in one of these they will be in the mix with the rest of us. Drop points in both and they probably won't be in the reckoning Austria play N. Ireland (H) & Norway play Romania (A) before playing one another in Austria. They both need to beat those teams and then beat one another to be in the reckoning. If they draw their game against each other our odds increase greatly If we beat Ireland & Finland we'll be guaranteed a playoff spot. If we take 4 points we may well get over the line but will depend on a few permutations that we might not know going into the final game. Finland in pretty much the same boat as us, but actually need to win both in all likelihood as they are a point behind us The long and the short of it is; - Keep and eye out for Austria vs N.I, Romania vs Norway, Slovakia vs Scotland. - If Austria, Norway & Scotland all drop points our chances go up dramatically - If they all lose and we beat Ireland, we just need a draw with Finland to top the group and we're there. If they all keep winning we have to win our final two games I'd say we're most likely (and Finland) all things considered, then Norway (Austria), then Scotland. It's possible someone from the other league group could pinch it but they would have to win both their final games and everyone else would have to drop points - highly unlikely |
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Post by welwyn on Nov 13, 2020 16:20:04 GMT
Admittedly all this still puts us 5th or 6th but I certainly can't see any of the 4 top flight winners finishing outside the top two.
I would still be much happier if we were the best second-tier winner just in case one of those 4 top-flight winners chucked in a Netherlands/Euro 2016 campaign.
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Post by jono on Nov 15, 2020 19:51:11 GMT
Anyone know how it currently stands...roughly?
As far as I can see if we win our group Wednesday night we should get one regardless of our WC qualifying campaign?
I know Scotland won their last nations league group and had a shocking qualifying campaign and have managed to qualify via the Nations league play offs.
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Post by allezlesrouges on Nov 15, 2020 20:02:12 GMT
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Post by walesgolfmadrid on Nov 15, 2020 20:03:38 GMT
1. France (13)
2. Belgium (9)
3. Germany (9)
4. Netherlands (8)
- - - - -
5. Wales (13)
6. Scotland (10)
7. Austria (9)
8. Russia (8)
This is the current situation, nothing would be guaranteed, but we're in a good position considering the sides above us. We need to be in the top two sides, who don't finish in the top two of our World Cup group to qualify via the Nations League.
1. France (16)
2. Denmark (13) (Belgium/England)
3. Poland (13) (Netherlands)
4. Germany (12
- - - -
5. Austria (15)
6. Wales (14)
7. Scotland (13)
8. Hungary (13)
This is the worst case scenario, if all results go against us, and we obviously do enough to win the group, in this instance we wouldn't qualify if Austria and one of Poland/Denmark don't finish in the top two of their groups, but we'd still be overwhelmingly likely to qualify through this method.
Nothing can guarantee it yet, but things that would benefit our chances:
- Beating Finland would guarantee us 5th.
- Austria dropping any points against NI home, Norway home would guarantee us 5th.
- Belgium (or England) winning their group, instead of Denmark
- Netherlands (or Italy) winning their group, instead of Poland. (I don't think Italy are necessarily all that better than Poland, but they are pot one, which makes a top two finish far more likely)
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Post by welwyn on Nov 17, 2020 12:16:48 GMT
And of course, losing to Finland knocks us out completely.
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Post by manulike on Nov 17, 2020 22:33:49 GMT
Another cheeky 1-0 tomorrow, will put us TWO GAMES AWAY from a place in the WORLD CUP.
Now, that is a nice thought ;-)
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Post by welshrover on Nov 17, 2020 23:02:59 GMT
1. France (13) 2. Belgium (9) 3. Germany (9) 4. Netherlands (8) - - - - - 5. Wales (13) 6. Scotland (10) 7. Austria (9) 8. Russia (8) This is the current situation, nothing would be guaranteed, but we're in a good position considering the sides above us. We need to be in the top two sides, who don't finish in the top two of our World Cup group to qualify via the Nations League. 1. France (16) 2. Denmark (13) (Belgium/England) 3. Poland (13) (Netherlands) 4. Germany (12 - - - - 5. Austria (15) 6. Wales (14) 7. Scotland (13) 8. Hungary (13) This is the worst case scenario, if all results go against us, and we obviously do enough to win the group, in this instance we wouldn't qualify if Austria and one of Poland/Denmark don't finish in the top two of their groups, but we'd still be overwhelmingly likely to qualify through this method. Nothing can guarantee it yet, but things that would benefit our chances: - Beating Finland would guarantee us 5th. - Austria dropping any points against NI home, Norway home would guarantee us 5th. - Belgium (or England) winning their group, instead of Denmark - Netherlands (or Italy) winning their group, instead of Poland. (I don't think Italy are necessarily all that better than Poland, but they are pot one, which makes a top two finish far more likely) Can someone on here post a master's degree course in advanced mathematics and geophysics, it might be easier to understand 🤔 |
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Post by impeachabull on Nov 17, 2020 23:16:53 GMT
Another cheeky 1-0 tomorrow, will put us TWO GAMES AWAY from a place in the WORLD CUP. Now, that is a nice thought ;-) One thing to remember with the Nations League path is that we'll be unseeded. So we'll play one of the six runners-up with the highest point totals away from home in a one-off tie, and if we managed to win that, then the final venue will be drawn out of a hat. I'll be delighted if we (essentially) secure a spot tomorrow, but it's a tough route to qualification. A win tomorrow might - in fact - be more important for Euro 2024 qualification. If the Nations League plays out like it did in 18/19 then we'll face 2 League C teams who failed to win their groups, with the first tie guaranteed to be in Cardiff. |
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Post by allezlesrouges on Nov 17, 2020 23:35:01 GMT
1. France (13) 2. Belgium (9) 3. Germany (9) 4. Netherlands (8) - - - - - 5. Wales (13) 6. Scotland (10) 7. Austria (9) 8. Russia (8) This is the current situation, nothing would be guaranteed, but we're in a good position considering the sides above us. We need to be in the top two sides, who don't finish in the top two of our World Cup group to qualify via the Nations League. 1. France (16) 2. Denmark (13) (Belgium/England) 3. Poland (13) (Netherlands) 4. Germany (12 - - - - 5. Austria (15) 6. Wales (14) 7. Scotland (13) 8. Hungary (13) This is the worst case scenario, if all results go against us, and we obviously do enough to win the group, in this instance we wouldn't qualify if Austria and one of Poland/Denmark don't finish in the top two of their groups, but we'd still be overwhelmingly likely to qualify through this method. Nothing can guarantee it yet, but things that would benefit our chances: - Beating Finland would guarantee us 5th. - Austria dropping any points against NI home, Norway home would guarantee us 5th. - Belgium (or England) winning their group, instead of Denmark - Netherlands (or Italy) winning their group, instead of Poland. (I don't think Italy are necessarily all that better than Poland, but they are pot one, which makes a top two finish far more likely) Can someone on here post a master's degree course in advanced mathematics and geophysics, it might be easier to understand 🤔 There are 2 playoff places up for grabs through the Nations League. Get in the top two places in this table (click on the wiki link to see the table so you know what I'm referencing) and we have a 99% chance of getting one of those spots The 1% chance is if any of the League A group winners don't finish in the top 2 in their group in main qualifying - they would be awarded a playoff place in this case Here's some scenarios so it's easier to understand with the current standings; - France & Spain both finish 3rd in their main qualifying group. They both get the playoff places - France finish 3rd & all other League A group winners finish in the top two. France get a playoff place, and the other play off place goes to League B and therefore us (or whoever tops this table) - All League A winners finish in the top 2 in main qualifying. Both us and Austria get the playoff places as we're in the top two of this table Therefore, it's a safer bet to be top of this table, as it means we are '1st in the queue' so to speak. However, chances are all League A group winners will be in the top 2 in their groups so all the permutations are likely unnecessary. Chances are top 2 in this table (just need a draw tomorrow to do this) & we're in the playoffs en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%9321_UEFA_Nations_League_B#Overall_ranking |
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Post by allezlesrouges on Nov 17, 2020 23:39:16 GMT
Another cheeky 1-0 tomorrow, will put us TWO GAMES AWAY from a place in the WORLD CUP. Now, that is a nice thought ;-) One thing to remember with the Nations League path is that we'll be unseeded. So we'll play one of the six runners-up with the highest point totals away from home in a one-off tie, and if we managed to win that, then the final venue will be drawn out of a hat. I'll be delighted if we (essentially) secure a spot tomorrow, but it's a tough route to qualification. A win tomorrow might - in fact - be more important for Euro 2024 qualification. If the Nations League plays out like it did in 18/19 then we'll face 2 League C teams who failed to win their groups, with the first tie guaranteed to be in Cardiff. Just looking at 2018 WC qualifier runners up for potential opponents; Ireland, Sweden, Switzerland, Northern Ireland, Denmark, Slovakia, Italy, Greece, Croatia Out of those you'd want N.I, Ireland, Slovakia or Greece. Others would be a really tough draw |
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Post by manulike on Nov 17, 2020 23:57:09 GMT
I must have missed this somehow, but the Norwegians are sending a team out to Vienna - sadly, with the entire first team squad missing. Better than a 3-0.
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Post by walesgolfmadrid on Nov 18, 2020 7:24:29 GMT
1. France (13) 2. Belgium (9) 3. Germany (9) 4. Netherlands (8) - - - - - 5. Wales (13) 6. Scotland (10) 7. Austria (9) 8. Russia (8) This is the current situation, nothing would be guaranteed, but we're in a good position considering the sides above us. We need to be in the top two sides, who don't finish in the top two of our World Cup group to qualify via the Nations League. 1. France (16) 2. Denmark (13) (Belgium/England) 3. Poland (13) (Netherlands) 4. Germany (12 - - - - 5. Austria (15) 6. Wales (14) 7. Scotland (13) 8. Hungary (13) This is the worst case scenario, if all results go against us, and we obviously do enough to win the group, in this instance we wouldn't qualify if Austria and one of Poland/Denmark don't finish in the top two of their groups, but we'd still be overwhelmingly likely to qualify through this method. Nothing can guarantee it yet, but things that would benefit our chances: - Beating Finland would guarantee us 5th. - Austria dropping any points against NI home, Norway home would guarantee us 5th. - Belgium (or England) winning their group, instead of Denmark - Netherlands (or Italy) winning their group, instead of Poland. (I don't think Italy are necessarily all that better than Poland, but they are pot one, which makes a top two finish far more likely) Can someone on here post a master's degree course in advanced mathematics and geophysics, it might be easier to understand 🤔 Yeah, it is very complex. I've tried to explain it as best as I can, but basically we're in a very good boat, but have to get a result tomorrow for any of this to matter. Things should be a lot clearer for us tomorrow. |
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Post by impeachabull on Nov 18, 2020 8:16:39 GMT
One thing to remember with the Nations League path is that we'll be unseeded. So we'll play one of the six runners-up with the highest point totals away from home in a one-off tie, and if we managed to win that, then the final venue will be drawn out of a hat. I'll be delighted if we (essentially) secure a spot tomorrow, but it's a tough route to qualification. A win tomorrow might - in fact - be more important for Euro 2024 qualification. If the Nations League plays out like it did in 18/19 then we'll face 2 League C teams who failed to win their groups, with the first tie guaranteed to be in Cardiff. Just looking at 2018 WC qualifier runners up for potential opponents; Ireland, Sweden, Switzerland, Northern Ireland, Denmark, Slovakia, Italy, Greece, Croatia Out of those you'd want N.I, Ireland, Slovakia or Greece. Others would be a really tough draw Yep, and had this format been in place in '18 (and we'd qualified for the play-offs via the Nations League) then we'd only have been able to play Switzerland, Denmark, Italy, Croatia, Sweden or NI away. ireland, Greece, and Slovakia would have been unseeded. |
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Post by gimli on Nov 18, 2020 9:49:57 GMT
I must have missed this somehow, but the Norwegians are sending a team out to Vienna - sadly, with the entire first team squad missing. Better than a 3-0.
In Mats Møller Dæhli – Cardiff City legend – we trust. Can't believe he's still only 25. |
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Post by fiveattheback on Nov 18, 2020 17:03:58 GMT
I must have missed this somehow, but the Norwegians are sending a team out to Vienna - sadly, with the entire first team squad missing. Better than a 3-0.
In Mats Møller Dæhli – Cardiff City legend – we trust. Can't believe he's still only 25. He looked like a world beater for a brief moment, playing for Genk now |
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Post by hal on Nov 18, 2020 17:27:26 GMT
If we were to get a play off spot along with another team from nations league. Who are the other teams in the play offs? Is it 2nd place teams from WCQ groups?
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Post by allezlesrouges on Nov 18, 2020 17:29:23 GMT
If we were to get a play off spot along with another team from nations league. Who are the other teams in the play offs? Is it 2nd place teams from WCQ groups? Yes 2nd place teams we'd be up against as we'd be unseeded if go through the Nations League path |
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Post by walesgolfmadrid on Nov 18, 2020 17:29:58 GMT
If we were to get a play off spot along with another team from nations league. Who are the other teams in the play offs? Is it 2nd place teams from WCQ groups? Yes, ten second placed teams from the groups, and then two sides from the Nations League. |
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Post by welshrover on Nov 18, 2020 17:34:57 GMT
If we were to get a play off spot along with another team from nations league. Who are the other teams in the play offs? Is it 2nd place teams from WCQ groups? Yes, ten second placed teams from the groups, and then two sides from the Nations League. If we finish second in the world cup group could we play ourselves 😁 |
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Post by eppingblue1 on Nov 18, 2020 18:19:06 GMT
If we were to get a play off spot along with another team from nations league. Who are the other teams in the play offs? Is it 2nd place teams from WCQ groups? Yes 2nd place teams we'd be up against as we'd be unseeded if go through the Nations League path Would we definitely be unseeded or would it go FIFA rankings at the time of the draw ? Big difference as it would probably mean being away to one of the highest ranked teams or home against one of the lowest ranked teams. |
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Post by impeachabull on Nov 18, 2020 20:36:30 GMT
Yes 2nd place teams we'd be up against as we'd be unseeded if go through the Nations League path Would we definitely be unseeded or would it go FIFA rankings at the time of the draw ? Big difference as it would probably mean being away to one of the highest ranked teams or home against one of the lowest ranked teams. Definitely unseeded. Top six second place teams in the qualification groups are the seeds, bottom four second place teams + 2 highest nations league group winners who don't finish in the top two are unseeded. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_FIFA_World_Cup_qualification_%E2%80%93_UEFA_Second_Round#Second-placed_teams_(all_ten_advance) |
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