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Post by saturn9 on Oct 9, 2021 11:09:17 GMT
People I think we need 15points to have a chance of finishing as one of the best second placed teams, so I think we need a result against Belgium even if we do finish second without it. Looking at the groups, think Serbia and Sweden will get about 17-18 points in groups A and B. Switzerland could potentially finish on 15, but will probably get 16-17 in Group C. I can't see Finland or the Ukraine getting more than 14pts in Group D. The other groups have 6 teams, so presumably their points against the bottom teams gets taken away. On that basis, I'm confident the second placed team in Group J will only finish with about 12pts, and I also think the second place team in Group F will only get about 14pts (after minusing from the bottom team). So it's going to be tight, but we need 15pts really to have a chance I was trying to figure this out as well. According to the stato's on twitter, we have little chance of ending up as one of the higher pointed second place teams now (and therefore get a home draw). I was not sure if that is based on mathematically it can't happen or based on the probability that it won't happen (that we are unlikely to get anything out of the Belgium game). But reading this, we need to beat Estonia and Belarus and at least draw with Belgium to be in with a chance of getting a home draw in the play-offs? If we get an away draw, the likely playoff opponents are going to be: Serbia, Poland, Switzerland, Sweden, Russia, Turkey Russia/ Turkey please. The other 4 i'd want to avoid. |
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Post by morg on Oct 10, 2021 10:30:15 GMT
Don't want to get Scotland to be honest.
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Post by saturn9 on Oct 10, 2021 10:35:44 GMT
Don't want to get Scotland to be honest. Why not? Hardly elite level. But would be decided on penalties😁If we got them. |
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Post by erasedcitizen on Oct 10, 2021 10:40:45 GMT
Don't want to get Scotland to be honest. It's my year end in work at the end of March so time off work is hard to come by. Scotland would be perfect! We're also better than them when we have a full team. |
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Post by welshrover on Oct 10, 2021 11:09:20 GMT
One presumes if we were to finish with an identical record to the Czechs, (points and goal difference) then the head to head would kick in?
Or would FIFA find some other formula to shaft us?
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Post by erasedcitizen on Oct 10, 2021 11:15:15 GMT
One presumes if we were to finish with an identical record to the Czechs, (points and goal difference) then the head to head would kick in? Or would FIFA find some other formula to shaft us? Goals scored before H2H I think. |
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Post by eppingblue1 on Oct 10, 2021 11:35:10 GMT
One presumes if we were to finish with an identical record to the Czechs, (points and goal difference) then the head to head would kick in? Or would FIFA find some other formula to shaft us? Bit irrelevant anyway. Cant see 14 points being enough to get us a place as one of the best 6 second places. I think we have get something out of the Belgium game to have a hope of getting a seeded play off position. We'll probably no exactly what we need and there'll be little on the game for them other than possible revenge for Lille. |
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Post by fiveattheback on Oct 10, 2021 15:22:34 GMT
Don't want to get Scotland to be honest. I'd take Scotland before Serbia/Sweden/Poland/Switzerland |
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Post by morg on Oct 10, 2021 15:41:54 GMT
Logically yes, agreed. Hope I'm wrong but just can't see us turning the Scots over. They've got some decent players. Robertson, Tierney, Gilmour, McGinn, McTominay and they're finding a way to win. Last 2 results huge for them. Never fancy competitive 'local derbies. That 0-1 against Ireland still hurts.
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Post by welshrover on Oct 10, 2021 15:44:51 GMT
Logically yes, agreed. Hope I'm wrong but just can't see us turning the Scots over. They've got some decent players. Robertson, Tierney, Gilmour, McGinn, McTominay and they're finding a way to win. Last 2 results huge for them. Never fancy competitive 'local derbies. That 0-1 against Ireland still hurts. To be fair Scotland made the Czechs look good at the Euros, even with home advantage. I personally wouldn't want Scotland for other reasons, my other half is Scottish and the friction levels in the house would go through the roof! |
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Post by morg on Oct 10, 2021 15:50:52 GMT
Logically yes, agreed. Hope I'm wrong but just can't see us turning the Scots over. They've got some decent players. Robertson, Tierney, Gilmour, McGinn, McTominay and they're finding a way to win. Last 2 results huge for them. Never fancy competitive 'local derbies. That 0-1 against Ireland still hurts. To be fair Scotland made the Czechs look good at the Euros, even with home advantage. I personally wouldn't want Scotland for other reasons, my other half is Scottish and the friction levels in the house would go through the roof! I think they've kicked on a lot since then and also Gilmour is making a big difference. Plus they've now got the Hampden Roar back. Don't think they're going to be a pushover for anyone. |
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Post by dai on Oct 10, 2021 16:23:55 GMT
Think Scotland would turn us over at the moment, they remind me of us during the 2016 campaign.
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Post by saturn9 on Oct 10, 2021 18:07:53 GMT
According to the Madrid media, Bale is nearing a return to the squad. But we've heard this before with his latest injury, weeks turned into days,then a potential 10 weeks.
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Post by jbt95 on Oct 10, 2021 18:09:08 GMT
One presumes if we were to finish with an identical record to the Czechs, (points and goal difference) then the head to head would kick in? Or would FIFA find some other formula to shaft us? Bit irrelevant anyway. Cant see 14 points being enough to get us a place as one of the best 6 second places. I think we have get something out of the Belgium game to have a hope of getting a seeded play off position. We'll probably no exactly what we need and there'll be little on the game for them other than possible revenge for Lille. 14 should be enough, don't forget they take away the games against the sixth place team which is generally 6. Won't be many runners up on 20 points, history shows us that. 5 of the 9 runners up last WCQs had 19 points or less (all 6 team groups, and two teams had 20 exactly). |
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Post by sleepy on Oct 10, 2021 18:41:53 GMT
Bit irrelevant anyway. Cant see 14 points being enough to get us a place as one of the best 6 second places. I think we have get something out of the Belgium game to have a hope of getting a seeded play off position. We'll probably no exactly what we need and there'll be little on the game for them other than possible revenge for Lille. 14 should be enough, don't forget they take away the games against the sixth place team which is generally 6. Won't be many runners up on 20 points, history shows us that. 5 of the 9 runners up last WCQs had 19 points or less (all 6 team groups, and two teams had 20 exactly). We Global Football on twitter predicting us to gave an away match so assume they think 14 won't be enough. Either that or they think we'll drop points next 2 games. |
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Post by conwy10 on Oct 10, 2021 19:42:27 GMT
This whole playoffs/nations league stuff is confusing me. I thought Wales were guaranteed a playoff regardless but we had to go for 2nd to get a home tie or a lower seed fixture.
What's the best 6? Do only 6 runner ups qualify?
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Post by fiveattheback on Oct 10, 2021 19:52:21 GMT
To be fair Scotland made the Czechs look good at the Euros, even with home advantage. I personally wouldn't want Scotland for other reasons, my other half is Scottish and the friction levels in the house would go through the roof! and also Gilmour is making a big difference. Plus they've now got the Hampden Roar back. Don't think they're going to be a pushover for anyone. Have they? Fair play to them for getting results, but I think "kicked on a lot" is a bit much I'd fancy our chances against Scotland and if we are unseeded then I'd definitely prefer to face them than someone like Serbia or Poland |
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Post by wirralwelsh on Oct 10, 2021 20:03:02 GMT
Bit irrelevant anyway. Cant see 14 points being enough to get us a place as one of the best 6 second places. I think we have get something out of the Belgium game to have a hope of getting a seeded play off position. We'll probably no exactly what we need and there'll be little on the game for them other than possible revenge for Lille. 14 should be enough, don't forget they take away the games against the sixth place team which is generally 6. Won't be many runners up on 20 points, history shows us that. 5 of the 9 runners up last WCQs had 19 points or less (all 6 team groups, and two teams had 20 exactly). I can't see 14 getting us there unless we get favours elsewhere. If we just need a point home to Belgium though , with Bale in the side we should be able to do it. |
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Post by iot on Oct 10, 2021 20:42:42 GMT
This whole playoffs/nations league stuff is confusing me. I thought Wales were guaranteed a playoff regardless but we had to go for 2nd to get a home tie or a lower seed fixture. What's the best 6? Do only 6 runner ups qualify? My understanding of it is as follows (jump in if I've got anything wrong): - 13 European teams qualify for the WC
- There are 10 qualifying groups with the winner of each going through
- the other 3 qualify through the playoffs
- All 10 second placed teams enter the playoff along with two of the highest teams from the Nations League not to finish 1st or 2nd in the main qualifying groups
- So there's 12 teams in the playoffs. They play in a one-legged semi final with 6 winners going through to a final, and 3 winners from those games qualifying for the WC
- The 6 best runners up in the qualifiers get a home tie in the semi final against the 4 worst teams and the 2 Nations League teams.
- The venue for the final is then drawn out of a hat
So what that boils down to is if we finish as one of the top 6 2nd place sides, we get a home draw against one of the worst sides in the playoffs e.g. North Macedonia, Albania, or Ukraine. If we don't, the inverse is true, so we're looking at an away against a Poland, Serbia, or Switzerland before going through to another game we have to win.
The odds are against us, but we showed against Czech that we can be a good team against quality opposition. A home tie in the semi final against a weaker side would make a hell of a difference!
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Post by conwy10 on Oct 10, 2021 21:07:19 GMT
This whole playoffs/nations league stuff is confusing me. I thought Wales were guaranteed a playoff regardless but we had to go for 2nd to get a home tie or a lower seed fixture. What's the best 6? Do only 6 runner ups qualify? My understanding of it is as follows (jump in if I've got anything wrong): - 13 European teams qualify for the WC
- There are 10 qualifying groups with the winner of each going through
- the other 3 qualify through the playoffs
- All 10 second placed teams enter the playoff along with two of the highest teams from the Nations League not to finish 1st or 2nd in the main qualifying groups
- So there's 12 teams in the playoffs. They play in a one-legged semi final with 6 winners going through to a final, and 3 winners from those games qualifying for the WC
- The 6 best runners up in the qualifiers get a home tie in the semi final against the 4 worst teams and the 2 Nations League teams.
- The venue for the final is then drawn out of a hat
So what that boils down to is if we finish as one of the top 6 2nd place sides, we get a home draw against one of the worst sides in the playoffs e.g. North Macedonia, Albania, or Ukraine. If we don't, the inverse is true, so we're looking at an away against a Poland, Serbia, or Switzerland before going through to another game we have to win.
The odds are against us, but we showed against Czech that we can be a good team against quality opposition. A home tie in the semi final against a weaker side would make a hell of a difference!
Thanks for that. I guess we just got to keep winning and see where we get. |
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Post by allezlesrouges on Oct 12, 2021 7:06:15 GMT
The below account is saying 15 points should be enough for us to get that home tie
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Post by eppingblue1 on Oct 12, 2021 9:13:43 GMT
The below account is saying 15 points should be enough for us to get that home tie I think its tight especially with our goal difference. Could have done without Turkey's 99th minute winner last night. If Albania beat Poland tonight and / or Russia win in Croatia in the final winner takes all game, then maybe. The one thing that goes right in our favour is that our game against Belgium is on the final day of fixtures. We should pretty much know what we need, with just one eye on the Montenegro / Turkey game being played at the same time. What's the chances of Bale being fit for the next 2 games. |
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Post by allezlesrouges on Oct 12, 2021 9:53:38 GMT
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Post by cymro on Oct 12, 2021 10:03:10 GMT
Lots of twists and turns to come in the last 2 games I think. Most of these predictors probably assume we'll get nothing from Belgium, failing to take into account that they'll have the group all wrapped up and potentially playing a slightly weaker team by then. Even if they don't field a weaker team, they won't be playing with the attitude that they need a result. |
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Post by welshrover on Oct 12, 2021 10:11:44 GMT
The crux of this is everyone assuming we will beat Belarus.
I sure every Welsh footie fan will have a "locker full" of games against "weaker" opposition that we should have won.
I personally can not see any point in pontificating about the Belgium game until the three points against Belarus are on the board.
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Post by jimexotic on Oct 12, 2021 10:12:53 GMT
Draw with Belarus, beat Belgium, you knows it
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Post by dai on Oct 12, 2021 10:18:33 GMT
The crux of this is everyone assuming we will beat Belarus. I sure every Welsh footie fan will have a "locker full" of games against "weaker" opposition that we should have won. I personally can not see any point in pontificating about the Belgium game until the three points against Belarus are on the board. Exactly. We really needed a good couple of goals against Estonia and look how that turned out. In saying that, Estonia also beat Belarus 2-0 comfortably. However we are Wales, and we shouldn't expect to beat teams like Belarus according to a lot of people. |
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5pike
the carls
Posts: 85 
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Post by 5pike on Oct 12, 2021 10:33:59 GMT
Anyone know when the draw will take place for the playoff games?
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Post by saturn9 on Oct 12, 2021 11:10:44 GMT
Anyone know when the draw will take place for the playoff games? [ I think they tend to take place in December. |
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Post by allezlesrouges on Oct 12, 2021 14:47:45 GMT
For those disappointed we didn't score more
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