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Post by vvm on Oct 19, 2023 12:56:32 GMT
Before I found out it was based on the points in the sort of mini group my assumption was it would take direct head to head results to determine the order.
I'm guessing that is actually wrong but could be the logic the bookies have gone with, as in they may believe we need to beat Turkey by at least 3 goals or 2 goals and overcome a +7 goal difference to overtake them?
That logic falls apart though when you try and work out how we would finish above Croatia, they would finish above Turkey and Turkey would finish above us. Doesn't work so assuming it definitely isn't goal difference then I think the bookies have made a mistake here.
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Post by mrpicton79 on Oct 19, 2023 13:03:14 GMT
If you're feeling really brave you can arb the lines by also hitting Wales to NOT finish in the top two at near evens, given that it's almost impossible we finish 2nd. Not going to do it myself on the off chance Croatia drop points in their last two games. Still nervous that the books know something we don't though (and they probably do lol). So if it's impossible to come second, you could put a £100 on us not finishing in the top two, and a £100 on us winning the group, and the only two possible outcomes would be to get a return of £200 or a return of £1400 - is that what you're saying? Not that I'm trying to encourage gambling or anything here  but yes. As I say Croatia could drop more points so both bets could still lose. I just played the 12/1 for Wales to win the group. They're pricing it as if we have to overhaul that massive GD deficit to top the group and we don't. (I'm assuming the H2H theory is correct ofc) |
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Post by welwyn on Oct 19, 2023 13:41:01 GMT
Well, we could finish second if Croatia drop points.
So basically you would be betting £200 that Croatia beat Latvia and Armenia.
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Post by welwyn on Oct 19, 2023 13:50:06 GMT
Wow you're right, just seen you can get 13/1 for Cymru to win the group. I'm having some of that. If you're feeling really brave you can arb the lines by also hitting Wales to NOT finish in the top two at near evens, given that it's almost impossible we finish 2nd. Not going to do it myself on the off chance Croatia drop points in their last two games. Still nervous that the books know something we don't though (and they probably do lol). Where have you found the NOT TO qualify priced up?? |
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Post by mrpicton79 on Oct 19, 2023 13:55:41 GMT
If you're feeling really brave you can arb the lines by also hitting Wales to NOT finish in the top two at near evens, given that it's almost impossible we finish 2nd. Not going to do it myself on the off chance Croatia drop points in their last two games. Still nervous that the books know something we don't though (and they probably do lol). Where have you found the NOT TO qualify priced up?? It's at bet365. But just to reiterate I don't want to encourage people to be arbing, it's football and it's high variance, anything can happen. The way Croatia are playing right now it is possible they drop points in one of their last two. |
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Post by welwyn on Oct 19, 2023 14:06:44 GMT
Looks like 365 have fixed it. Now 8/11
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Post by cymro on Oct 19, 2023 15:57:12 GMT
Still got 13/1 on Betfair. Let's see if they correct it.
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Post by cogancoronation31 on Oct 19, 2023 16:16:13 GMT
WOW! ... A Serious rival to our BUCKET HATS... Anyone watching the highlights of Albania's recent 3-0 drubbing of the Czechs (Albania are top of Group E currently) can't fail to notice the thousands of home fans wearing white cone-shaped hats - which are quite traditional in Albania, apparently, but are now back in vogue big-time for sporting occasions!
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Post by steveh on Oct 19, 2023 16:16:15 GMT
We can finish second if we win our last two giving us 16 points and Croatia drop points in one of their last two meaning they couldn't reach 16, leaving us in second?
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Post by cymro on Oct 19, 2023 16:28:19 GMT
We can finish second if we win our last two giving us 16 points and Croatia drop points in one of their last two meaning they couldn't reach 16, leaving us in second? Correct. Croatia have got Armenia at home though so I'll be stunned if they drop any more points. Especially as they'll be praying we slip up in one of our last 2 games to see them through. |
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Post by ddirpytnop on Oct 19, 2023 16:31:53 GMT
We can finish second if we win our last two giving us 16 points and Croatia drop points in one of their last two meaning they couldn't reach 16, leaving us in second? Correct. Croatia have got Armenia at home though so I'll be stunned if they drop any more points. Especially as they'll be praying we slip up in one of our last 2 games to see them through. No that's not right. We can only finsh second if we drop at least two points in our remaining two games and the Croats do the same. |
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Post by eppingblue1 on Oct 19, 2023 16:53:08 GMT
Correct. Croatia have got Armenia at home though so I'll be stunned if they drop any more points. Especially as they'll be praying we slip up in one of our last 2 games to see them through. No that's not right. We can only finsh second if we drop at least two points in our remaining two games and the Croats do the same. If we beat Turkey 1 nil they'll be above us on H to H. We would only then top the group if Croatia also finish on 16. If we win both games ( by 1 against Turkey ) and Croatia drop points, we're second. I think we'd have to beat Turkey by 3. |
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Post by manulike on Oct 19, 2023 19:07:27 GMT
My head hurts now ;-(
Can we just win one game at a time...
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Post by iot on Oct 19, 2023 19:48:28 GMT
Well, we could finish second if Croatia drop points. So basically you would be betting £200 that Croatia beat Latvia and Armenia. Almost, the odds are slightly better than that though because it would only take us to pick up fewer points than Croatia to miss out e.g. we get a couple of draws or a win and a loss while they pick up a win and a draw. There's probably about a 25-30% chance of us finishing first, a 5-10% chance of finishing second, and a 60-70% chance of finishing third |
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Post by welshrover on Oct 23, 2023 11:13:25 GMT
I know some of you are way more adept at working these things out than myself, so if by some minor miracle we did win our qualification group what seeding would we likely to be in come the tournament or does it depend on a myriad other things?
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Post by eppingblue1 on Oct 23, 2023 12:09:17 GMT
I know some of you are way more adept at working these things out than myself, so if by some minor miracle we did win our qualification group what seeding would we likely to be in come the tournament or does it depend on a myriad other things? If we win the group with 16 points then we'll definitely be in pot 2. If we come second with 16 points then maybe 3 or 4. If we manage 2nd with less points than 16 points then almost certainly pot 4. |
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Post by jimbo82 on Oct 23, 2023 12:38:39 GMT
I know some of you are way more adept at working these things out than myself, so if by some minor miracle we did win our qualification group what seeding would we likely to be in come the tournament or does it depend on a myriad other things? If we win the group with 16 points then we'll definitely be in pot 2. If we come second with 16 points then maybe 3 or 4. If we manage 2nd with less points than 16 points then almost certainly pot 4. It would be great to have a higher seeding if we qualified, but in 2016 and 2020 we were pot 4 and did ok in the end. At Qatar we were slightly unfairly put in Pot 4 (based on Scotland's ranking) and that really did us no favours at all. |
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Post by kingstonred on Nov 1, 2023 21:54:40 GMT
Can someone explain the permutations of the group?
I thought if we won our last two games we topped the group, but SkyBet has us at 11/1 to win the group?
Turkey 1/7
Croatia 7/1
Cymru 11/1
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Post by manulike on Nov 1, 2023 22:47:55 GMT
Can someone explain the permutations of the group? I thought if we won our last two games we topped the group, but SkyBet has us at 11/1 to win the group? Turkey 1/7 Croatia 7/1 Cymru 11/1 If I were abetting man, I'd put a pound on that, for sure!
#YesWeCan
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Post by jbt95 on Nov 2, 2023 10:04:25 GMT
Can someone explain the permutations of the group? I thought if we won our last two games we topped the group, but SkyBet has us at 11/1 to win the group? Turkey 1/7 Croatia 7/1 Cymru 11/1 If we lose in Armenia we then will be relying on Croatia to lose a game which is unlikely. I assume that’s why we are priced so high at the moment. The bookies will also be thinking we lost against both teams we are due to face. |
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Post by kingstonred on Nov 2, 2023 12:42:20 GMT
If we win both games, do we also have to better the 2-0 result that Turkey got against us to top the group?
i.e. we need to beat Armenia and then beat Turkey 3-0?
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Post by bobbyghoul on Nov 2, 2023 12:47:19 GMT
If we win both games, do we also have to better the 2-0 result that Turkey got against us to top the group? i.e. we need to beat Armenia and then beat Turkey 3-0? Not unless Croatia drop points. I think. |
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Post by winsumluzsum on Nov 2, 2023 13:25:45 GMT
If we win both games, do we also have to better the 2-0 result that Turkey got against us to top the group? i.e. we need to beat Armenia and then beat Turkey 3-0? Only if Croatia fail to win their last two games, in which case it's our head to head versus Turkey that counts. |
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Post by quetzal on Nov 12, 2023 22:03:07 GMT
Potentially huge news. Kosovo beat Israel today. Romania stand to qualify and Israel knock Norway and Haaland out of play off place.
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Post by pclaude on Nov 12, 2023 22:28:21 GMT
Can someone explain the permutations of the group? I thought if we won our last two games we topped the group, but SkyBet has us at 11/1 to win the group? Turkey 1/7 Croatia 7/1 Cymru 11/1 Those are remarkable odds. Im not saying we are favourites to win the group, but 11-1 seems mad. We are evens to win in Armenia. Croatia must be odds on to win in Latvia then odds on to beat Armenia. So those 3 results are under 4-1. That means we are 5-2 or so too beat an already qualified team at home. Someone’s fucked up there. just checked- oddschecker says 12-1 with us marginally odds on to win in Armenia, Croatia 1-8 to win in Latvia. So it’s just over evens that us and Croatia win Saturday. That means us and Croatia and us winning Tuesday is 10-1… That makes no sense to me- I must be missing something |
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Post by cymro on Nov 13, 2023 11:14:22 GMT
Can someone explain the permutations of the group? I thought if we won our last two games we topped the group, but SkyBet has us at 11/1 to win the group? Turkey 1/7 Croatia 7/1 Cymru 11/1 Those are remarkable odds. Im not saying we are favourites to win the group, but 11-1 seems mad. We are evens to win in Armenia. Croatia must be odds on to win in Latvia then odds on to beat Armenia. So those 3 results are under 4-1. That means we are 5-2 or so too beat an already qualified team at home. Someone’s fucked up there. just checked- oddschecker says 12-1 with us marginally odds on to win in Armenia, Croatia 1-8 to win in Latvia. So it’s just over evens that us and Croatia win Saturday. That means us and Croatia and us winning Tuesday is 10-1… That makes no sense to me- I must be missing something Yeah all the bookies seem to be in agreement that the likelihood of Wales and Croatia winning both their remaining games is at least 10/1, which is madness if you ask me. I got it at 13/1, believe that is still the case on Betfair. They're obviously weighing heavily on the fact we lost to our two remaining opponents already, but seemingly ignoring our huge win over Croatia and that Turkey have already qualified. Reminds me of the Euro 2016 qualifying campaign when I had some big wins, the bookies had absolutely no faith in Wales doing much! |
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Post by bobbyghoul on Nov 13, 2023 11:39:30 GMT
Those are remarkable odds. Im not saying we are favourites to win the group, but 11-1 seems mad. We are evens to win in Armenia. Croatia must be odds on to win in Latvia then odds on to beat Armenia. So those 3 results are under 4-1. That means we are 5-2 or so too beat an already qualified team at home. Someone’s fucked up there. just checked- oddschecker says 12-1 with us marginally odds on to win in Armenia, Croatia 1-8 to win in Latvia. So it’s just over evens that us and Croatia win Saturday. That means us and Croatia and us winning Tuesday is 10-1… That makes no sense to me- I must be missing something Yeah all the bookies seem to be in agreement that the likelihood of Wales and Croatia winning both their remaining games is at least 10/1, which is madness if you ask me. I got it at 13/1, believe that is still the case on Betfair. They're obviously weighing heavily on the fact we lost to our two remaining opponents already, but seemingly ignoring our huge win over Croatia and that Turkey have already qualified. Reminds me of the Euro 2016 qualifying campaign when I had some big wins, the bookies had absolutely no faith in Wales doing much! I woukd imagine the odds are set by algorithm and don't include things like Turkey already qualifying. I remember absolutely cleaning up on Israel v Wales in the Euro2016 campaign as Israel were coming in off the back of a couple of good results and we hadn't had a good run in a while. But all you had to do was look at the respective teams to know we had a great chance. And so it proved. |
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Post by pclaude on Nov 13, 2023 21:10:07 GMT
Those are remarkable odds. Im not saying we are favourites to win the group, but 11-1 seems mad. We are evens to win in Armenia. Croatia must be odds on to win in Latvia then odds on to beat Armenia. So those 3 results are under 4-1. That means we are 5-2 or so too beat an already qualified team at home. Someone’s fucked up there. just checked- oddschecker says 12-1 with us marginally odds on to win in Armenia, Croatia 1-8 to win in Latvia. So it’s just over evens that us and Croatia win Saturday. That means us and Croatia and us winning Tuesday is 10-1… That makes no sense to me- I must be missing something Yeah all the bookies seem to be in agreement that the likelihood of Wales and Croatia winning both their remaining games is at least 10/1, which is madness if you ask me. I got it at 13/1, believe that is still the case on Betfair. They're obviously weighing heavily on the fact we lost to our two remaining opponents already, but seemingly ignoring our huge win over Croatia and that Turkey have already qualified. Reminds me of the Euro 2016 qualifying campaign when I had some big wins, the bookies had absolutely no faith in Wales doing much! But the individual game odds on Wales dont reflect that. |
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Post by welshowl on Nov 14, 2023 19:08:08 GMT
Keeping an eye on the Germany - Türkiye match which takes place on Saturday evening. The following is taken from a Bundesliga website preview. Hopefully it will be a friendly in name only, and that Türkiye prioritise this one above the game in Cardiff (even though they have definitely qualified, they would be seeded higher if they win our group I believe).
Turkey coach Vincenzo Montella is likewise expected to want to use the trip to Berlin to give his side a real test ahead of Euro 2024. Borussia Dortmund's Salih Özcan features in a strong first-choice midfield alongside former Bayer Leverkusen star and current Inter Milan set-piece specialist Hakan Çalhanoğlu. Hoffenheim defender Ozan Kabak could well feature too after recovering from a shoulder injury to play in his side's last two Bundesliga encounters. One-time Schalke youth product Kaan Ayhan has recently worked his way back into the Turkey squad, with former Freiburg defender Çağlar Söyüncü making brief appearances for Atletico Madrid in recent weeks after his recovery from a groin problem. Experienced striker Cenk Tosun developed at Eintracht Frankfurt and played for various German youth national teams.
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Post by allezlesrouges on Nov 15, 2023 12:31:08 GMT
I know they can win the group and that might help their rankings in the pot. But I don't think that ever feels like something that urges a drive for a result really, and you can imagine given they've got a relatively young squad and a new manager it's also every bit as useful for them to use the Germany game as a practise exercise rather than worrying about being in pot 2 or 3
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but yes. As I say Croatia could drop more points so both bets could still lose. 
