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Post by iot on Sept 11, 2024 11:08:31 GMT
xG analysis is very interesting. So far under Bellamy it's been... Cymru 2.04-0.64 Turkey Montenegro 2.12-1.25 Cymru Our last few results under Page... Gibraltar 0.37-1.97 Cymru Slovakia 1.77-0.72 Cymru Cymru 0.90-0.46 Poland Cymru 2.97-1.31 Finland Cymru 0.77-1.20 Turkey Armenia 0.98-0.84 Cymru This also demonstrates that xG shouldn’t be treated as gospel. It’s only part of the picture. For example, it doesn’t factor in that we had 2 or 3 nailed on pens in that Page Turkey game, and also doesn’t factor that their penalty (likely upping their xG by .7 or .8) should never have been awarded |
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Post by njdragon on Sept 11, 2024 12:02:23 GMT
xG analysis is very interesting. So far under Bellamy it's been... Cymru 2.04-0.64 Turkey Montenegro 2.12-1.25 Cymru Our last few results under Page... Gibraltar 0.37-1.97 Cymru Slovakia 1.77-0.72 Cymru Cymru 0.90-0.46 Poland Cymru 2.97-1.31 Finland Cymru 0.77-1.20 Turkey Armenia 0.98-0.84 Cymru This also demonstrates that xG shouldn’t be treated as gospel. It’s only part of the picture. For example, it doesn’t factor in that we had 2 or 3 nailed on pens in that Page Turkey game, and also doesn’t factor that their penalty (likely upping their xG by .7 or .8) should never have been awarded there's just so many variables you could apply to any game, full strength sides, squads, new managers, run of form... its impossible to compare a like for like beyond the final result. ultimately as im sure bellamy would say its goals that win you matches not chances. |
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Post by allezlesrouges on Sept 11, 2024 14:45:14 GMT
xG analysis is very interesting. So far under Bellamy it's been... Cymru 2.04-0.64 Turkey Montenegro 2.12-1.25 Cymru Our last few results under Page... Gibraltar 0.37-1.97 Cymru Slovakia 1.77-0.72 Cymru Cymru 0.90-0.46 Poland Cymru 2.97-1.31 Finland Cymru 0.77-1.20 Turkey Armenia 0.98-0.84 Cymru This also demonstrates that xG shouldn’t be treated as gospel. It’s only part of the picture. For example, it doesn’t factor in that we had 2 or 3 nailed on pens in that Page Turkey game, and also doesn’t factor that their penalty (likely upping their xG by .7 or .8) should never have been awarded Yep I think a pen always adds on 0.7, so you get a clearer picture if you factor that in |
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Post by allezlesrouges on Sept 11, 2024 14:50:27 GMT
Interestingly the only games we accrued above 1 xG in Page's final 6 games were Gibraltar (a game we didn't score in) & Finland (bit of an anomaly). I think being consistently below 1 xG across these games was part of his demise. Bellamy's first 2 games have both been above 1 xG
I think this is a good demonstration of the changes made to our attacking play
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Post by iot on Sept 11, 2024 17:10:57 GMT
This also demonstrates that xG shouldn’t be treated as gospel. It’s only part of the picture. For example, it doesn’t factor in that we had 2 or 3 nailed on pens in that Page Turkey game, and also doesn’t factor that their penalty (likely upping their xG by .7 or .8) should never have been awarded Yep I think a pen always adds on 0.7, so you get a clearer picture if you factor that in Ok, so even if one pen had gone our way and there's (one of the softest I've ever seen) not given, the xG would have been Cymru 1.47-0.5 Turkey which feels much more reflective of how that game played out and is only slightly less stark than the game under Bellamy. I'm a big fan of both of those performances and results btw |
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Post by winsumluzsum on Sept 11, 2024 20:05:15 GMT
The Montenegro game has got to be up there as the worst conditions that a game involving Cymru has ever been played under. And the Turkiye game must be a contender for second place. Perhaps the Scotland game in which Bale scored that iconic goal would be the second worst? Any alternative suggestions?
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Post by underwood on Sept 11, 2024 20:11:43 GMT
Yugoslavia away, Dec 1982,
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Post by marsvolta on Sept 11, 2024 20:12:02 GMT
The Montenegro game has got to be up there as the worst conditions that a game involving Cymru has ever been played under. And the Turkiye game must be a contender for second place. Perhaps the Scotland game in which Bale scored that iconic goal would be the second worst? Any alternative suggestions? The Scotland day was very heavy rain and drizzle all day but it was nothing like the two games this week , that was extreme rain. Luckily the worst of it came about 9.45pm as we left the ground, that was crazy weather |
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Post by winsumluzsum on Sept 11, 2024 20:39:29 GMT
Yugoslavia away, Dec 1982, Good point. Certainly the condition of the pitch that day has to be just about the worst for a Cymru game. Although I'm sure there's a few contenders for that ignominuous status from back in the day... |
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Post by winsumluzsum on Sept 11, 2024 21:04:46 GMT
Yugoslavia away, Dec 1982, Looks as if the weather was fine during the game, but clearly not before... youtu.be/raj832QcMBgFootball back then was virtually a different sport. That tackle from Robbie James in the first minute... |
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Post by allezlesrouges on Sept 11, 2024 21:36:34 GMT
Yep I think a pen always adds on 0.7, so you get a clearer picture if you factor that in Ok, so even if one pen had gone our way and there's (one of the softest I've ever seen) not given, the xG would have been Cymru 1.47-0.5 Turkey which feels much more reflective of how that game played out and is only slightly less stark than the game under Bellamy. I'm a big fan of both of those performances and results btw Yeah you're right it does feel more correct and reflective of the game. We got shafted that game! Page had us playing at home, his away form and lack of ability to adapt/turn a game was his undoing |
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Post by quetzal on Sept 12, 2024 14:19:38 GMT
Watching the full game replay and I’m not buying the ‘Montenegro should have won’. You go 2-0 down in 3 minutes and you have to throw the kitchen sink. Moore could have had a few. Neco mafe a hash of it when should have hit first time with right foot. Cymru good for the win.
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Post by fiveattheback on Sept 12, 2024 14:31:21 GMT
Watching the full game replay and I’m not buying the ‘Montenegro should have won’. You go 2-0 down in 3 minutes and you have to throw the kitchen sink. Moore could have had a few. Neco mafe a hash of it when should have hit first time with right foot. Cymru good for the win. Yep a lot of people are ignoring that aspect |
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Post by fireboy0610 on Sept 12, 2024 16:32:26 GMT
Watching the full game replay and I’m not buying the ‘Montenegro should have won’. You go 2-0 down in 3 minutes and you have to throw the kitchen sink. Moore could have had a few. Neco mafe a hash of it when should have hit first time with right foot. Cymru good for the win. Totally agree 👍 |
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Post by winsumluzsum on Sept 12, 2024 19:24:12 GMT
Watching the full game replay and I’m not buying the ‘Montenegro should have won’. You go 2-0 down in 3 minutes and you have to throw the kitchen sink. Moore could have had a few. Neco mafe a hash of it when should have hit first time with right foot. Cymru good for the win. I agree to a point. But they should have had one back after 5 minutes, then there was that Jovetic effort onto the bar, plus the triple effort culminating in Davies' clearance off the line. They definitely deserved a draw. |
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Post by jbt95 on Sept 12, 2024 20:32:35 GMT
Watching the full game replay and I’m not buying the ‘Montenegro should have won’. You go 2-0 down in 3 minutes and you have to throw the kitchen sink. Moore could have had a few. Neco mafe a hash of it when should have hit first time with right foot. Cymru good for the win. I’m not so sure. We got away with one I think. |
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Post by kracken88 on Sept 12, 2024 20:36:49 GMT
I remember them hitting the bar and post coupled with what looked like a lucky save when the ball hit a divert and jumped up and the brilliant goal line clearence as well,I think we were a touch lucky,but hey we've had our share of bad luck, better a lucky winner every day
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Post by welshowl on Sept 12, 2024 21:18:24 GMT
Watching the full game replay and I’m not buying the ‘Montenegro should have won’. You go 2-0 down in 3 minutes and you have to throw the kitchen sink. Moore could have had a few. Neco mafe a hash of it when should have hit first time with right foot. Cymru good for the win. I’m not so sure. We got away with one I think. I watched the Montenegro game but delayed/behind live. It became unbearable after they scored, so I fast forwarded the game at "30 seconds" per second to sooner get to the end /their equaliser ....whatever was going to happen.
As others have said - Friday night, great performance, disappointing result....Monday night, average performance but great result. Basking in / feeling relieved at that until the next round of games.
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Post by winsumluzsum on Sept 13, 2024 16:57:06 GMT
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