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Post by jimexotic on Sept 10, 2024 7:57:08 GMT
Can't believe I'm reading complaints about Bellamy in this, a man who started his Wales career playing for a man who said we wouldn't qualify for a tournament before a ball was even kicked.
Enjoy the ride
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Post by athenempadu on Sept 10, 2024 8:32:31 GMT
Best team photo yet  |
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Post by njdragon on Sept 10, 2024 8:33:54 GMT
I don’t think we’re any better than we were with page right now. All these formations look great, lots of nice possession and touches like the Poland match but I’m not convinced by Bellamy yet. Iceland away will be a good test. This is the minimum we’d expect a draw against turkey at home and a win away tonight. Not sure why jj was dropped tonight he’s too important for us We would be lucky to have a single point by now under Page. Surely we can't just keep on this blind page rant he's gone now. Remind me what the score was last time we played turkey? Im not getting carried away with bellamy based on a hatred for page... i really hope he's good but the turkey game very much like poland - they hardly had a chance on target and yet we couldn't get a goal. Even with that massive change of formation. Lots of nice football from us but we couldn't get that goal we deserved in those matches Poland and Turkey). |
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Post by allezlesrouges on Sept 10, 2024 8:48:15 GMT
Yep both Koumas and Cooper struggled but that is not a game to judge them by. Let's see how they fare across the rest of the Nations League when called upon
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Post by allezlesrouges on Sept 10, 2024 8:55:47 GMT
We would be lucky to have a single point by now under Page. Surely we can't just keep on this blind page rant he's gone now. Remind me what the score was last time we played turkey? Im not getting carried away with bellamy based on a hatred for page... i really hope he's good but the turkey game very much like poland - they hardly had a chance on target and yet we couldn't get a goal. Even with that massive change of formation. Lots of nice football from us but we couldn't get that goal we deserved in those matches Poland and Turkey). I think under Page we draw that Turkey game, and lose last night. Page had us playing well at home, hard to beat, but our away form under him was not good and had deteriorated... Slovakia 4-0 loss Gibraltar 0-0 draw Armenia 1-1 draw Latvia 2-0 win Turkey 2-0 loss Croatia 1-1 draw Belgium 2-1 loss Netherlands 3-2 loss Poland 2-1 loss Latvia the only win in his last 9 away games. Some tough games in there for sure, the draw to Croatia was a good result, but that's negated by the draw to Armenia. Those last two friendly results were really poor and I think showed that Page was done. I can't see anyway that he gets us a result in those conditions last night, it would have been at best a draw and probably a loss |
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Post by winsumluzsum on Sept 10, 2024 9:40:55 GMT
I hope every good result and performance isn't used as a stick to beat Page with. Page had his limitations for sure but his overall record was more than decent. I honestly think Bellamy is shaping up to being the best manager in our history, so that's not a fair yardstick to judge Page by.
We need to move on from the Page era, be gracious about his time with us, and above all savour what we have with Bellamy, as it won't last for ever.
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Post by derynglas on Sept 10, 2024 9:42:12 GMT
I thought we were terrific against Turkey.
There were difficult periods last night,for sure.But well always get that.
Very early to make any judgements either way
But there's a freshness about us,and a feeling of a new era.
So far,so great.
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Post by allezlesrouges on Sept 10, 2024 10:40:11 GMT
I hope every good result and performance isn't used as a stick to beat Page with. Page had his limitations for sure but his overall record was more than decent. I honestly think Bellamy is shaping up to being the best manager in our history, so that's not a fair yardstick to judge Page by. We need to move on from the Page era, be gracious about his time with us, and above all savour what we have with Bellamy, as it won't last for ever. For what it's worth I'm not bashing Page. I wasn't really a part of the "Page out" noise until the Poland game where I felt his time had ended, the friendlies solidified that for me. But overall I'm very appreciative of what he did for us I'm more referencing Page's record to show how well Bellamy has done in these opening 2 games of his tenure. A brilliant performance followed by one of our toughest away games in recent years due to the circumstances and the expectation that we'd win. Winning away is never easy, so any away win should be celebrated. Especially ones in Eastern Europe in dodgy circumstances - that was our achilles heel in years gone by! I agree with you, I think Bellamy will have a lasting impact on Welsh football and I'm excited for the ride, whilst also appreicative that a more limited manager in Page achieved what he did |
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Post by rushy on Sept 10, 2024 11:56:36 GMT
It's clear to see the almost boyish enthusiasm in how Bellamy's infectious positivity is relating to the players and everyone connected, it's good to see.
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It's the honeymoon period and long may it last, what will be interesting is how he responds to a poor performance and loss if and when it happens.
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Post by iantov on Sept 10, 2024 17:01:18 GMT
We would be lucky to have a single point by now under Page. Surely we can't just keep on this blind page rant he's gone now. Remind me what the score was last time we played turkey? Im not getting carried away with bellamy based on a hatred for page... i really hope he's good but the turkey game very much like poland - they hardly had a chance on target and yet we couldn't get a goal. Even with that massive change of formation. Lots of nice football from us but we couldn't get that goal we deserved in those matches Poland and Turkey). I don't see Aberbeeg's response as being a 'blind Page rant' more of a direct response to your comment regarding your comment that you don't think that we are any better than we were with page'. I'm not a Page hater but surely even you (as an obvious lover of Page) can see the huge difference, certainly over the last few matches of Page's tenure? Surely! The Turkey game in particular was like chalk & cheese and with respect, I think it's you that is being blind. |
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Post by neverever on Sept 10, 2024 18:02:36 GMT
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Post by njdragon on Sept 10, 2024 18:23:12 GMT
Surely we can't just keep on this blind page rant he's gone now. Remind me what the score was last time we played turkey? Im not getting carried away with bellamy based on a hatred for page... i really hope he's good but the turkey game very much like poland - they hardly had a chance on target and yet we couldn't get a goal. Even with that massive change of formation. Lots of nice football from us but we couldn't get that goal we deserved in those matches Poland and Turkey). I don't see Aberbeeg's response as being a 'blind Page rant' more of a direct response to your comment regarding your comment that you don't think that we are any better than we were with page'. I'm not a Page hater but surely even you (as an obvious lover of Page) can see the huge difference, certainly over the last few matches of Page's tenure? Surely! The Turkey game in particular was like chalk & cheese and with respect, I think it's you that is being blind. No I can’t at all we didn’t score and was 0-0 at home, with less chances on target than our previous draw against turkey. So no I’m still undecided and won’t get carried away just because ‘anything’s better than page’ That was the point of my original post |
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Post by melynwy on Sept 10, 2024 19:28:18 GMT
I don't see Aberbeeg's response as being a 'blind Page rant' more of a direct response to your comment regarding your comment that you don't think that we are any better than we were with page'. I'm not a Page hater but surely even you (as an obvious lover of Page) can see the huge difference, certainly over the last few matches of Page's tenure? Surely! The Turkey game in particular was like chalk & cheese and with respect, I think it's you that is being blind. No I can’t at all we didn’t score and was 0-0 at home, with less chances on target than our previous draw against turkey. So no I’m still undecided and won’t get carried away just because ‘anything’s better than page’ That was the point of my original post Personally, I think Friday night v Turkey was an exceptional performance - one of the best I've seen from Wales. On all accounts apart from goals scored, we completely dominated. In all but name, and in all but finishing, it was a comfortable 3-0 performance against a recent Euro quarter-finalist. As I've said before, I think shots on target is a very misleading stat (hitting the post/bar counts as 'off target' for instance, and that's usually a much better effort than a routine save that goes down as 'on target'. Same goes for good long range efforts that go just wide. Good forwards don't just try to hit the target, they aim for where they're most likely to score, and that's often a very fine line between not hitting the target at all)- I think expected goals is a much more representative statistic of a game, and our was close to 3 I think. Of course, playing like that and not scoring is a worry in itself, and we essentially missed an open goal in both matches, and I can see why that in itself is a fair reason to not get carried away with the performance. Ramsey I'll forgive, because his attempted header was a total mis-hit and came off his shoulder - I'm confident that if he had got his head to it, it would have gone in! On the other hand, if they had simply concentrated on hitting the target above all else instead of putting the ball out of the GK's reach, I don't think Moore or Wilson would have scored against Montenegro! Maybe I am getting carried away, but I'm happy to do so. Friday night was a completely different Wales to any side I've seen. It was driven by football, not emotion. I think most/all our highs under Coleman and Page were more driven by emotion, which in itself is not a bad thing at all, and it worked spectacularly on occasion, elevating us much higher than the individual ability of most of our players. But Friday night we were a very good football team, albeit a team that missed a handful of sitters (but also came close with several genuine great plays, and a good long range effort from Wilson) Of course, the real proof is to come, but right now, I'm very excited! |
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Post by winsumluzsum on Sept 10, 2024 19:39:26 GMT
No I can’t at all we didn’t score and was 0-0 at home, with less chances on target than our previous draw against turkey. So no I’m still undecided and won’t get carried away just because ‘anything’s better than page’ That was the point of my original post Personally, I think Friday night v Turkey was an exceptional performance - one of the best I've seen from Wales. On all accounts apart from goals scored, we completely dominated. In all but name, and in all but finishing, it was a comfortable 3-0 performance against a recent Euro quarter-finalist. As I've said before, I think shots on target is a very misleading stat (hitting the post/bar counts as 'off target' for instance, and that's usually a much better effort than a routine save that goes down as 'on target'. Same goes for good long range efforts that go just wide. Good forwards don't just try to hit the target, they aim for where they're most likely to score, and that's often a very fine line between not hitting the target at all)- I think expected goals is a much more representative statistic of a game, and our was close to 3 I think. Of course, playing like that and not scoring is a worry in itself, and we essentially missed an open goal in both matches, and I can see why that in itself is a fair reason to not get carried away with the performance. Ramsey I'll forgive, because his attempted header was a total mis-hit and came off his shoulder - I'm confident that if he had got his head to it, it would have gone in! On the other hand, if they had simply concentrated on hitting the target above all else instead of putting the ball out of the GK's reach, I don't think Moore or Wilson would have scored against Montenegro! Maybe I am getting carried away, but I'm happy to do so. Friday night was a completely different Wales to any side I've seen. It was driven by football, not emotion. I think most/all our highs under Coleman and Page were more driven by emotion, which in itself is not a bad thing at all, and it worked spectacularly on occasion, elevating us much higher than the individual ability of most of our players. But Friday night we were a very good football team, albeit a team that missed a handful of sitters (but also came close with several genuine great plays, and a good long range effort from Wilson) Of course, the real proof is to come, but right now, I'm very excited! With good reason. |
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Post by hc16040 on Sept 10, 2024 20:02:32 GMT
I don't see Aberbeeg's response as being a 'blind Page rant' more of a direct response to your comment regarding your comment that you don't think that we are any better than we were with page'. I'm not a Page hater but surely even you (as an obvious lover of Page) can see the huge difference, certainly over the last few matches of Page's tenure? Surely! The Turkey game in particular was like chalk & cheese and with respect, I think it's you that is being blind. No I can’t at all we didn’t score and was 0-0 at home, with less chances on target than our previous draw against turkey. So no I’m still undecided and won’t get carried away just because ‘anything’s better than page’ That was the point of my original post 2.45xg vs 0.85xg a star that says it all... |
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Post by njdragon on Sept 10, 2024 20:36:11 GMT
No I can’t at all we didn’t score and was 0-0 at home, with less chances on target than our previous draw against turkey. So no I’m still undecided and won’t get carried away just because ‘anything’s better than page’ That was the point of my original post 2.45xg vs 0.85xg a star that says it all... What does that mean? |
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Post by njdragon on Sept 10, 2024 20:38:03 GMT
No I can’t at all we didn’t score and was 0-0 at home, with less chances on target than our previous draw against turkey. So no I’m still undecided and won’t get carried away just because ‘anything’s better than page’ That was the point of my original post Personally, I think Friday night v Turkey was an exceptional performance - one of the best I've seen from Wales. On all accounts apart from goals scored, we completely dominated. In all but name, and in all but finishing, it was a comfortable 3-0 performance against a recent Euro quarter-finalist. As I've said before, I think shots on target is a very misleading stat (hitting the post/bar counts as 'off target' for instance, and that's usually a much better effort than a routine save that goes down as 'on target'. Same goes for good long range efforts that go just wide. Good forwards don't just try to hit the target, they aim for where they're most likely to score, and that's often a very fine line between not hitting the target at all)- I think expected goals is a much more representative statistic of a game, and our was close to 3 I think. Of course, playing like that and not scoring is a worry in itself, and we essentially missed an open goal in both matches, and I can see why that in itself is a fair reason to not get carried away with the performance. Ramsey I'll forgive, because his attempted header was a total mis-hit and came off his shoulder - I'm confident that if he had got his head to it, it would have gone in! On the other hand, if they had simply concentrated on hitting the target above all else instead of putting the ball out of the GK's reach, I don't think Moore or Wilson would have scored against Montenegro! Maybe I am getting carried away, but I'm happy to do so. Friday night was a completely different Wales to any side I've seen. It was driven by football, not emotion. I think most/all our highs under Coleman and Page were more driven by emotion, which in itself is not a bad thing at all, and it worked spectacularly on occasion, elevating us much higher than the individual ability of most of our players. But Friday night we were a very good football team, albeit a team that missed a handful of sitters (but also came close with several genuine great plays, and a good long range effort from Wilson) Of course, the real proof is to come, but right now, I'm very excited! Maybe so I’m just not getting carried away in want to be confident we’ve got an upgrade and someone who can do something with in reality (well club level) says they are an average set of players. |
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Post by winsumluzsum on Sept 10, 2024 20:43:26 GMT
Personally, I think Friday night v Turkey was an exceptional performance - one of the best I've seen from Wales. On all accounts apart from goals scored, we completely dominated. In all but name, and in all but finishing, it was a comfortable 3-0 performance against a recent Euro quarter-finalist. As I've said before, I think shots on target is a very misleading stat (hitting the post/bar counts as 'off target' for instance, and that's usually a much better effort than a routine save that goes down as 'on target'. Same goes for good long range efforts that go just wide. Good forwards don't just try to hit the target, they aim for where they're most likely to score, and that's often a very fine line between not hitting the target at all)- I think expected goals is a much more representative statistic of a game, and our was close to 3 I think. Of course, playing like that and not scoring is a worry in itself, and we essentially missed an open goal in both matches, and I can see why that in itself is a fair reason to not get carried away with the performance. Ramsey I'll forgive, because his attempted header was a total mis-hit and came off his shoulder - I'm confident that if he had got his head to it, it would have gone in! On the other hand, if they had simply concentrated on hitting the target above all else instead of putting the ball out of the GK's reach, I don't think Moore or Wilson would have scored against Montenegro! Maybe I am getting carried away, but I'm happy to do so. Friday night was a completely different Wales to any side I've seen. It was driven by football, not emotion. I think most/all our highs under Coleman and Page were more driven by emotion, which in itself is not a bad thing at all, and it worked spectacularly on occasion, elevating us much higher than the individual ability of most of our players. But Friday night we were a very good football team, albeit a team that missed a handful of sitters (but also came close with several genuine great plays, and a good long range effort from Wilson) Of course, the real proof is to come, but right now, I'm very excited! Maybe so I’m just not getting carried away in want to be confident we’ve got an upgrade and someone who can do something with in reality (well club level) says they are an average set of players. You're right about the quality of player available, and we come up short in World Cup qualifying for that reason. But I suspect it will be an exhilarating ride. |
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Post by melynwy on Sept 10, 2024 20:57:32 GMT
Maybe so I’m just not getting carried away in want to be confident we’ve got an upgrade and someone who can do something with in reality (well club level) says they are an average set of players. You're right about the quality of player available, and we come up short in World Cup qualifying for that reason. But I suspect it will be an exhilarating ride. I do think we have a stronger and more balanced starting XI than at any point in the recent past, but without the maverick talents that could do the impossible and turn a game on its head (I still feel Ramsey has a few moments of brilliance left though!) We are rather bare beyond the starting line up and a couple of substitute attackers though. If we lose Davies, Ampadu or JJ we are considerable weaker. The star players are more replaceable in a way- ie. we have more depth in the ‘3’ of a 4-2-3-1 to potentially cope than we do with our defenders and holding midfielders. I do believe we’d collapse without Ampadu! |
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Post by hc16040 on Sept 10, 2024 22:03:30 GMT
2.45xg vs 0.85xg a star that says it all... What does that mean? Expected Goals is the likelihood of any shot going in given the position on the pitch, position of defenders etc. For example a tap in has higher Xg than a 30 yard screamer. Generally it's a good indicator of how dangerous a team is, I'd recommend reading a tad into it as it's much more useful than shots on/off target. We registered 2.45 Xg against Turkey on Friday but only 0.85 against Poland in March which shows we were vastly more dangerous against Turkey than Poland. |
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Post by njdragon on Sept 11, 2024 6:06:08 GMT
Expected Goals is the likelihood of any shot going in given the position on the pitch, position of defenders etc. For example a tap in has higher Xg than a 30 yard screamer. Generally it's a good indicator of how dangerous a team is, I'd recommend reading a tad into it as it's much more useful than shots on/off target. We registered 2.45 Xg against Turkey on Friday but only 0.85 against Poland in March which shows we were vastly more dangerous against Turkey than Poland. Thanks, I see! Just looked over some of the stats it’s interesting. As a note I’d say it was very much the same match for the 90 mins whereas we played 120 mins against Poland and they started to dominate possession in extra time. I guess Xg is over that 120 mins? I think both games we deserved the win over the 90 we just can’t seem to kill a game off as we get closer to the final whistle. Turkey the same I couldn’t see us getting a goal in that last 20 mins. |
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Post by welrus on Sept 11, 2024 8:42:38 GMT
No I can’t at all we didn’t score and was 0-0 at home, with less chances on target than our previous draw against turkey. So no I’m still undecided and won’t get carried away just because ‘anything’s better than page’ That was the point of my original post 2.45xg vs 0.85xg a star that says it all... Anybody know the xg for both sides against Montenegro? 4 points from the 2 games seems a fair return to me, albeit the points haven’t been picked up as play deserved, with three against Turkey and one against Montenegro being a fairer reflection in my view. But football doesn’t work that way. I’m feeling positive. Although I wonder about our defence, but that is at least in part due to a more risky style of play. It’s certainly enjoyable. Roll on Iceland. |
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Post by winsumluzsum on Sept 11, 2024 8:49:35 GMT
2.58 vs 1.34 Xg in Montenegro's favour, which doesn't surprise me. However given we had a 2 nil lead the game may have panned out differently had Montenegro pulled a goal back earlier or equalised. We definitely didn't deserve the win, but we're good for a draw.
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Post by fireboy0610 on Sept 11, 2024 9:04:30 GMT
2.58 vs 1.34 Xg in Montenegro's favour, which doesn't surprise me. However given we had a 2 nil lead the game may have panned out differently had Montenegro pulled a goal back earlier or equalised. We definitely didn't deserve the win, but we're good for a draw. Even though montenegro were good after we went 2 nil up early if Moore had put his glaring miss away they would have collapsed imo. |
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Post by welrus on Sept 11, 2024 9:18:08 GMT
2.58 vs 1.34 Xg in Montenegro's favour, which doesn't surprise me. However given we had a 2 nil lead the game may have panned out differently had Montenegro pulled a goal back earlier or equalised. We definitely didn't deserve the win, but we're good for a draw. Even though montenegro were good after we went 2 nil up early if Moore had put his glaring miss away they would have collapsed imo. That’s true. But equally you can look at Montenegro missed chances. The Xg reflects what I saw. Once we were 2-0 up it felt Montenegro were creating the better chances (aside from Moores). Had we not caught them early with those two goals it would have been a tough night. Time will tell whether to what extent the conditions played a part. I would say the style we’re trying to play was more affected by the pitch. |
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Post by allezlesrouges on Sept 11, 2024 9:30:33 GMT
2.58 vs 1.34 Xg in Montenegro's favour, which doesn't surprise me. However given we had a 2 nil lead the game may have panned out differently had Montenegro pulled a goal back earlier or equalised. We definitely didn't deserve the win, but we're good for a draw. That makes sense, although as you said sometimes the way it plays out affects things like this. If we hadn't been ahead I'm sure we would have pushed more. The instructions from Bellamy 2nd half were definitely, sod the game plan this is a battle, hold our lead and get through this game Had we been level I think we'd have gone for it more. Interesting though that our xG is lower than 2, given Moore's goal + his missed open goal, would have thought both would add up to at least 2 |
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Post by fireboy0610 on Sept 11, 2024 9:40:03 GMT
Even though montenegro were good after we went 2 nil up early if Moore had put his glaring miss away they would have collapsed imo. That’s true. But equally you can look at Montenegro missed chances. The Xg reflects what I saw. Once we were 2-0 up it felt Montenegro were creating the better chances (aside from Moores). Had we not caught them early with those two goals it would have been a tough night. Time will tell whether to what extent the conditions played a part. I would say the style we’re trying to play was more affected by the pitch. Yes they did have chances but so did we, imo the great start we had made us too relaxed, we gave montenegro too much time and space, we were second best in the 50/50s and we gave away alot of ball, if we hadn't had that great start we might have been a little less relaxed and been more up for it. Ateotd we came away with a vital 3 points against a good team, away from home in terrible conditions. |
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Post by iot on Sept 11, 2024 9:51:00 GMT
2.58 vs 1.34 Xg in Montenegro's favour, which doesn't surprise me. However given we had a 2 nil lead the game may have panned out differently had Montenegro pulled a goal back earlier or equalised. We definitely didn't deserve the win, but we're good for a draw. That makes sense, although as you said sometimes the way it plays out affects things like this. If we hadn't been ahead I'm sure we would have pushed more. The instructions from Bellamy 2nd half were definitely, sod the game plan this is a battle, hold our lead and get through this game Had we been level I think we'd have gone for it more. Interesting though that our xG is lower than 2, given Moore's goal + his missed open goal, would have thought both would add up to at least 2 I'm no expert on xG methodology, but surely no 2 chances would ever add up to 2 xG as no single chance will ever be a 1. I assume every chance is on a 0-1 scale. So Moore's goal at the edge of the box may have been a 0.5, the one missed may have been a 0.7, then Wilson's may have been a 0.1 (as he had no right scoring from there really). Is that how it works? Edit - this gives more info about the method: statsbomb.com/soccer-metrics/expected-goals-xg-explained/ As I thought, each shot is on a 0-1 scale and that's affected by distance to goal, angle to goal, body part with which the shot was taken, and type of assist or previous action. Think Moore's 'sitter' will have been marked down a fair bit by the pace on the ball coming into him |
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Post by allezlesrouges on Sept 11, 2024 10:32:56 GMT
xG analysis is very interesting. So far under Bellamy it's been...
Cymru 2.04-0.64 Turkey
Montenegro 2.12-1.25 Cymru
Our last few results under Page...
Gibraltar 0.37-1.97 Cymru
Slovakia 1.77-0.72 Cymru
Cymru 0.90-0.46 Poland
Cymru 2.97-1.31 Finland
Cymru 0.77-1.20 Turkey
Armenia 0.98-0.84 Cymru
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Post by allezlesrouges on Sept 11, 2024 10:35:00 GMT
That makes sense, although as you said sometimes the way it plays out affects things like this. If we hadn't been ahead I'm sure we would have pushed more. The instructions from Bellamy 2nd half were definitely, sod the game plan this is a battle, hold our lead and get through this game Had we been level I think we'd have gone for it more. Interesting though that our xG is lower than 2, given Moore's goal + his missed open goal, would have thought both would add up to at least 2 I'm no expert on xG methodology, but surely no 2 chances would ever add up to 2 xG as no single chance will ever be a 1. I assume every chance is on a 0-1 scale. So Moore's goal at the edge of the box may have been a 0.5, the one missed may have been a 0.7, then Wilson's may have been a 0.1 (as he had no right scoring from there really). Is that how it works? Edit - this gives more info about the method: statsbomb.com/soccer-metrics/expected-goals-xg-explained/ As I thought, each shot is on a 0-1 scale and that's affected by distance to goal, angle to goal, body part with which the shot was taken, and type of assist or previous action. Think Moore's 'sitter' will have been marked down a fair bit by the pace on the ball coming into him Yeah but it's still a very high xG chance, I'd have thought overall we'd still be around 2, a bit under 2 seems right to me. But as you say the pace of the ball may be a factor. Think Ben could have taken a bit off it given the conditions tbh |
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