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Post by stu on Nov 26, 2014 21:33:18 GMT
The important aspect is we are now 22nd in UEFA, we need to be 18th by next summer to clinch pot 2 for the WC qualifiers.
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Post by ontheroadagain on Nov 26, 2014 22:47:52 GMT
The important aspect is we are now 22nd in UEFA, we need to be 18th by next summer to clinch pot 2 for the WC qualifiers. Should be possible looking at the teams above and below us. 21 Slovakia 891 3 30 22 Tunisia 867 9 87 23 Austria 863 6 53
24 Côte d'Ivoire 861 1 19 25 Greece 856 -7 -90
26 Ukraine 854 -7 -66
27 Ecuador 852 0 26 28 USA 836 -5 -26 29 Bosnia-Herzegovina 808 -3 -29
30 Denmark 804 2 41
31 Russia 789 -1 -3
32 Israel 788 13 173
33 Iceland 761 -5 -55
34 Wales 748 0 33
35 Senegal 734 6 99 36 Scotland 729 1 55 37 Ghana 714 -2 29 38 Guinea 698 17 146 39 Cape Verde Islands 693 -6 -23 40 Poland 684 4 63 Ukraine and Greece are falling dramatically along with Iceland. No fixtures in Europe until March so Capr Verde could still climb above Wales.  |
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ger27
the carls
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Post by ger27 on Nov 27, 2014 22:11:56 GMT
The important aspect is we are now 22nd in UEFA, we need to be 18th by next summer to clinch pot 2 for the WC qualifiers. Just had a quick look at the rankings. I reckon the only way we can get into the second pot is by beating both Belgium and Israel, or beating one of those plus a highly ranked team in a friendly. The draw for the qualifiers is due to be made in July 2015, meaning that results of the 4 year prior to that is what will influence our ranking. That means that: Results that drop off of our caluculation between now and the draw: losses v ROI, Scotland and England, and a friendly win v Northern Ireland (which would have been worth little points anyway). Results to be included: Israel away, Belgium home, and possible friendly in March Probanly 90% certain to be in pot 3. Bearing in mind France are certain to be in pot 2, could end up with a very difficult group again! |
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Post by ontheroadagain on Nov 27, 2014 22:17:49 GMT
The important aspect is we are now 22nd in UEFA, we need to be 18th by next summer to clinch pot 2 for the WC qualifiers. Just had a quick look at the rankings. I reckon the only way we can get into the second pot is by beating both Belgium and Israel, or beating one of those plus a highly ranked team in a friendly. The draw for the qualifiers is due to be made in July 2015, meaning that results of the 4 year prior to that is what will influence our ranking. That means that: Results that drop off of our caluculation between now and the draw: losses v ROI, Scotland and England, and a friendly win v Northern Ireland (which would have been worth little points anyway). Results to be included: Israel away, Belgium home, and possible friendly in March Probanly 90% certain to be in pot 3. Bearing in mind France are certain to be in pot 2, could end up with a very difficult group again! Good research. Although nothing to fear from facing France, ask our under 16's. |
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Post by rossettred on Nov 27, 2014 22:45:39 GMT
The important aspect is we are now 22nd in UEFA, we need to be 18th by next summer to clinch pot 2 for the WC qualifiers. Just had a quick look at the rankings. I reckon the only way we can get into the second pot is by beating both Belgium and Israel, or beating one of those plus a highly ranked team in a friendly. The draw for the qualifiers is due to be made in July 2015, meaning that results of the 4 year prior to that is what will influence our ranking. That means that: Results that drop off of our caluculation between now and the draw: losses v ROI, Scotland and England, and a friendly win v Northern Ireland (which would have been worth little points anyway). Results to be included: Israel away, Belgium home, and possible friendly in March Probanly 90% certain to be in pot 3. Bearing in mind France are certain to be in pot 2, could end up with a very difficult group again! But given we came out of Pot 6 for the last World Cup qualifiers, I'm sure most of us would very happy with Pot 3. |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 28, 2014 3:39:44 GMT
For fucks sake, could someone in the know (texan?) pass yhis info on to the FAW? I am fed up with their clueless ranking strategy and its not the euros next time round, its the world cup and we all know what that means- 2nd place goes into a play off so we need all the advantages we can get going into that drae. I imagine a draw is the likeliest resukt for us in Israel so we need to play our cards carefully with that 2nd date in March and ensure that its a winnable game that will boost our rankings appropriately. Cape Verde away, anyone?  |
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Post by texan on Nov 28, 2014 10:01:14 GMT
For fucks sake, could someone in the know (texan?) pass yhis info on to the FAW? I am fed up with their clueless ranking strategy and its not the euros next time round, its the world cup and we all know what that means- 2nd place goes into a play off so we need all the advantages we can get going into that drae. I'd suggest a tweet or two to Osian Roberts, he's a direct line into the Wales camp and seems more than happy to discuss such things. Even if there's no response, at least you'll know he'll have read it and that seed will have been planted. Even if he/they've possibly thought about this scenario already, there's no harm in covering all bases I suppose! |
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Post by jbt95 on Nov 28, 2014 11:22:17 GMT
The important aspect is we are now 22nd in UEFA, we need to be 18th by next summer to clinch pot 2 for the WC qualifiers. Pot 3 would be fine though, considering it would be a pot up from this round of Euro qualifying and three up on the 2014 WC qualifiers afterall! I don't think we will make pot 2 even if we end 18th, don't they take into account so many of the previous years rankings too or is that just the FIFA rankings themselves? One thing FIFA should look at in my opinion is expanding the World Cup final tournament itself to 40 teams. 32 is too small for 200+ countries. Expand each group to 5 teams with the top two going through still, so just an extra round of games in the group stage. UEFA could take 18 teams (33% of our teams) rather than 13 (less than 25%), give another to the South Americans, and two more to Africa. If they did that, with 18 UEFA sides all top two teams could qualify then and they could do away with the play-offs, or the play-offs could be between second and third placed teams. |
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Post by ysbryd on Nov 28, 2014 11:47:12 GMT
Just for the record the 485.10 points allocated for the draw in Belgium would have been 1455.30 pts for a win and assuming that Belgium stays around 4th till the summer would be for a win in Cardiff.
a win against Israel would currently get 1247.40 pts and a draw 415.80 pts
Friendlies do not attract the same coefficients and so for the same games you would reduce the points total 2.5 times.
To be clear a win v Belgium in a friendly would attract 582.12 points and a draw only 194.04 points.
The single easiest (not so sure of the word easy) way to increase our average points total dramatically is two back to back wins in qualifying matches.
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Post by stu on Nov 29, 2014 10:42:44 GMT
Pot 3 would be fine though, considering it would be a pot up from this round of Euro qualifying and three up on the 2014 WC qualifiers afterall! I don't think we will make pot 2 even if we end 18th, don't they take into account so many of the previous years rankings too or is that just the FIFA rankings themselves?For the WC it's normally whatever rank you are but the ranking are based across four years worth of games. |
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Post by jbt95 on Dec 1, 2014 23:48:20 GMT
Pot 3 would be fine though, considering it would be a pot up from this round of Euro qualifying and three up on the 2014 WC qualifiers afterall! I don't think we will make pot 2 even if we end 18th, don't they take into account so many of the previous years rankings too or is that just the FIFA rankings themselves?For the WC it's normally whatever rank you are but the ranking are based across four years worth of games. Rightio that makes it a bit easier. We have four games before the draw in theory, two Euro qualifying and two friendlies so if we can move up to 18th great but I think it is most important we are in pot 3 given our current position. |
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Post by welshiron on Dec 2, 2014 9:05:13 GMT
All of the above is assuming that the other European team stay on the same points so what we need is more than likely to change.
Someone needs to e mail the chap who does these or work out what points each of the teams around us are going to lose and could possibly gain.
Basically, do the teams above us have good results dropping off?
Would be a shame to lose a friendly to find out if we hadn't played we would of een in Pot 2, not an exact science me thinks.
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Post by ger93 on Mar 30, 2015 10:09:54 GMT
With a 3-0 win over a team 11 places above us (Wales - 37th, Israel - 26th) where are we expected to be when the next rankings are released?
Pot 2 for World Cup qualifiers a real possibility I imagine!!
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Post by welshmatt on Mar 30, 2015 10:18:30 GMT
On the FIFA rankings website there is a calculator to estimate future rankings
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Post by eppingblue on Mar 30, 2015 11:32:06 GMT
Low to mid 20's for the Fifa ranking. Possibly 13th in the euro section. Even a win against Belgium would be unlikely to get us above 9th and in the top pot but it would be pretty close. It just shows how far we've come. 6th pot for brazil. 4th pot for this tournament and 2nd for the next world cup.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 30, 2015 11:37:35 GMT
Can we really say we one of the top 25 nations in the world? Sadly, with Bale i think that would be about right, without him we arent even top 40 imo.
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Post by matty on Mar 30, 2015 12:20:20 GMT
Can we really say we one of the top 25 nations in the world? Sadly, with Bale i think that would be about right, without him we arent even top 40 imo. Isn't that the same for a few nations though? What would you guess is Portugal's ranking, with and without Ronaldo? |
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Post by ontheroadagain on Mar 30, 2015 12:23:46 GMT
Shall check out our friend Edwin's website tonight.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 30, 2015 12:32:43 GMT
Can we really say we one of the top 25 nations in the world? Sadly, with Bale i think that would be about right, without him we arent even top 40 imo. Isn't that the same for a few nations though? What would you guess is Portugal's ranking, with and without Ronaldo? Thats fair comment. I am not bothered about 'one man team' jibes at all- its not illegal for us to field Bale and if we win games just because of him then thats how it goes- we havent broken any rules just using the resources available to us. With regards to the rankings though, Bale is directly responsible for at least 6 of our points so far in our group, that would have made a difference to our ranking points. |
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Post by jbt95 on Mar 30, 2015 12:33:47 GMT
Low to mid 20's for the Fifa ranking. Possibly 13th in the euro section. Even a win against Belgium would be unlikely to get us above 9th and in the top pot but it would be pretty close. It just shows how far we've come. 6th pot for brazil. 4th pot for this tournament and 2nd for the next world cup. We will defo be in pot 3 at least for the WC qualifiers, pot 2 would be great though if we can do that, we are better than ROI imo and they were 2nd seeds in this round of qualifying. |
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Post by matty on Mar 30, 2015 12:51:50 GMT
Isn't that the same for a few nations though? What would you guess is Portugal's ranking, with and without Ronaldo? Thats fair comment. I am not bothered about 'one man team' jibes at all- its not illegal for us to field Bale and if we win games just because of him then thats how it goes- we havent broken any rules just using the resources available to us. With regards to the rankings though, Bale is directly responsible for at least 6 of our points so far in our group, that would have made a difference to our ranking points. I do agree but I'm just as impressed with our defensive record this campaign as I am with Bale. I'm sure Bale has helped some way (directly or indirectly) in that as well though. Scoring goals is always looked at as more important than the defence, but having only conceded 2 goals so far I'd give our defence quite a few points too. I'm pretty sure our defence has improved more than Bale has. |
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Post by jbt95 on Mar 30, 2015 13:00:27 GMT
Thats fair comment. I am not bothered about 'one man team' jibes at all- its not illegal for us to field Bale and if we win games just because of him then thats how it goes- we havent broken any rules just using the resources available to us. With regards to the rankings though, Bale is directly responsible for at least 6 of our points so far in our group, that would have made a difference to our ranking points. I do agree but I'm just as impressed with our defensive record this campaign as I am with Bale. I'm sure Bale has helped some way (directly or indirectly) in that as well though. Scoring goals is always looked at as more important than the defence, but having only conceded 2 goals so far I'd give our defence quite a few points too. I'm pretty sure our defence has improved more than Bale has. I agree, in over 440 mins we have conceded once from a free kick. In the 450 minutes of this campaign we've conceded two goals, despite playing three away games including the best team in the group. Can't deny our defence is very very good. |
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Post by matty on Mar 30, 2015 13:07:26 GMT
Loosely...
Andorra - Bale 3points
Bosnia - Defence 1point
Cyprus - ?
Belgium - Defence 1point
Israel - Bale 2points / defence 1point
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Post by underwood on Mar 30, 2015 13:22:37 GMT
We will rise about 5 places I think to the low 30's, only Iceland, of the teams who are immediately above us, won on the weekend. Bosnia are currently 30th, we will be just below them I think. Israel will fall as a result of their defeat.
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Post by erasedcitizen on Mar 30, 2015 13:55:16 GMT
I had a little time on my hands, so I've knocked up the top 40 after the last run of games using the FIFA rankings calculator. Considering our highest ever FIFA ranking is 27, this is rather impressive, but still not enough for the top European pot.
1. Germany – 1687
2. Argentina – 1469
3. Colombia – 1402
4. Belgium – 1396
5. Brazil - 1354
6. Netherlands – 1280
7. Portugal – 1233
8. Uruguay – 1176
9. Spain – 1147
10. Switzerland - 1135
11. France – 1127
12. Romania - 1086
13. Italy – 1085
14. England - 1030
15. Costa Rica – 1022
16. Chile – 991
17. Croatia - 977
18. Czech Republic – 943
19. Mexico – 924
20. Wales - 916
21. Algeria – 907
22. Cote D’Ivoire – 907
23. Greece - 900
24. Austria - 890
25. Slovakia – 884
26. Ghana – 833
27. USA - 815
28. Denmark – 808
29. Scotland - 796
30. Tunisia – 793
31. Bosnia and Herzegovina – 783
32. Russia - 782
33. Ecuador – 775
34. Ukraine - 772
35. Poland – 754
36. Senegal - 752
37. Iceland - 728
38. Israel – 718
39. Cape Verde Islands – 702
40. Iran - 700
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Post by underwood on Mar 30, 2015 14:03:02 GMT
Wow, are we allowed to declare?!
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Post by Deleted on Mar 30, 2015 14:22:54 GMT
Thats fair comment. I am not bothered about 'one man team' jibes at all- its not illegal for us to field Bale and if we win games just because of him then thats how it goes- we havent broken any rules just using the resources available to us. With regards to the rankings though, Bale is directly responsible for at least 6 of our points so far in our group, that would have made a difference to our ranking points. I do agree but I'm just as impressed with our defensive record this campaign as I am with Bale. I'm sure Bale has helped some way (directly or indirectly) in that as well though. Scoring goals is always looked at as more important than the defence, but having only conceded 2 goals so far I'd give our defence quite a few points too. I'm pretty sure our defence has improved more than Bale has. Yeah good point. As much as I have banged on about us relying too much on Bale the second name on the team sheet for me, even ahead of Ramsey, is Chester. Is it coincidence that our defensive solidity improved almost overnight with his introduction? Hes been an exceptional find and one of the key components that has slotted into place and put us where we currently are. Collins was good against Israel, but he is very limited all round compared to Chester. Chester and Williams also seem to make a more cohesive unit together. You could do worse as a club manager than buy Williams for 20 odd million and pick up Chester at cut price and build a team round them. |
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Post by abwales on Mar 30, 2015 14:41:25 GMT
The table above hasn't taken into account the changes that have been made to the past 4 years of results since the rankings last updated. My complete and utter guess is that we'll be.... 33rd!
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Post by erasedcitizen on Mar 30, 2015 14:45:59 GMT
The table above hasn't taken into account the changes that have been made to the past 4 years of results since the rankings last updated. My complete and utter guess is that we'll be.... 33rd! I'm pretty sure it does... |
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Post by sleepy on Mar 30, 2015 15:08:35 GMT
Our loss v England in March 2011 probably drops off the list now.
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