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Post by walesaway on Apr 3, 2015 11:45:16 GMT
That wont happen. England's ranking is depressed due to last years world cup. Get past July and it will half in relevance and England will shoot up the table. The rankings take into account the results from the last 4 years. Last year's world cup will still count. Yes but they will have a smaller weighting, as will the points of every other team who played in the World Cup. What erasedcitizen is saying has some truth - England's poor World Cup performance will have reduce in significance to ranking points as time goes on. They're having a solid qualification campaign so far which will go some way to repairing the damage done in Brazil. |
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Post by jackson on Apr 3, 2015 12:36:59 GMT
Waiting for the July FIFA rankings will be like waiting for XMAS.
I predict that if we beat Belgium we will be in pot 1
I've not got the brain of Stephen Hawkins so this is simplistic based on the most 2 relevant factors, the forthcoming qualifier and last years world cup.
1 Germany 1687 Away to Gibralter which they will win
Germany will be above us
2. Belgium 1457 Away to us
The scenario is a win for us but that will still leave us 300 points short not allowing for their reduction for loosing to us. More crucially they got 4 very valuable wins in Brazil which will half in value.
We will be above Belgium
3. Netherlands 1301 Away to Latvia which they will win
However 5 wins and 2 draws ( plus an extra point for winning the penalty shoot out ) at the world cup will half in value and have a massive impact We will be above Holland
4. Portugal 1221 Away to Armenia which they will win
a win and a draw in the world cup will have minimal effect
Portugal will be above us
5. Switzerland 1135 Away to Lithuania which they will win
2 wins at the world cup will pull their points down and Lithuania will score low for them but they'll still be enough Switzerland will be above us
6 Spain 1132 Away to Belarus which they will win
Only 1 win in the world cup should help them but they are loosing a lot of historic points so it will be tight but they will get there
Spain to be above us
7. France 1127 no competitive fixture
3 wins and a draw at the world cup will really knock they points total. However there must be some protection to their ranking as they're unable to gain many points at present
We will be above France
8. Romania 1086 away to Northern Ireland which I thin they will win
No world cup effect a draw or win in NI sees them stay above us
Romania will be above us
9. Italy 1085 away to Croatia too tight to call
Only 1 win at the world cup will probably have slightly positive uplift for them. A win or draw will enough for them Italy will be above us
10 England 1030 away to Slovenia which they will win
Just 1 draw in the world cup will give them a huge uplift when its relevance is halved.
England will be above us
11 Croatia 977 home to Italy
1 win at the world cup so slight uplift. They will need to beat Italy to be above us and in which case Italy would be below us
we will be above Croatia
12 Czeck Rep 923 away to Iceland which I'll assume they will win
We'll get more points from beating Belgium to close the difference
we will be above the Czech rep
13, Slovakia 920 home to macedonia which they will win
We'll get more points from beating Belgium to close the difference
we will be above Slovakia
14. wales 916 On that basis we'll be 8th and even allowing for special allowances for France we will be in pot 1.
Clearly Belgium home has become the most important welsh game in my lifetime. A win and we'll be in France and give us a huge chance in the next world cup qualifiers.
Germany/Holland/Belgium will be ranked above Wales no matter what. Romania/England/Spain/Portugal are almost sure of pot 1. Your best bet is to catch Italy/Croatia. Switzerland/France will drop to pot 2 |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 3, 2015 12:46:47 GMT
Seriously?! I thought it was almost mathematically impossible for us to be pot 2 for the WC draw? If a win puts us in pot one then thst changes the complexion of the Belgium home game as one we can afford to drop points in. Forgetting this campaign its absolutely vital beyond all belief that if we can guarantee that we avoid Germany, Spain or the other nations that perennially take the top berth then we must do everything in our power to do so. The elitism of the WC will be a world away from this euros where everyone gets a good crack at it. I just hope the Wales set up is aware of the implications here and play for a win rather than try and contain Belgium and take a draw. |
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Post by pengedragon on Apr 3, 2015 13:17:58 GMT
Are we really guaranteed pot 2 even if we lose to Belgium? Would be an incredible rise, pot 1 is just dreamland  |
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Post by erasedcitizen on Apr 3, 2015 13:19:04 GMT
We have to scrap the Northern Ireland friendly then surely?
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Post by eppingblue on Apr 3, 2015 13:21:17 GMT
Waiting for the July FIFA rankings will be like waiting for XMAS.
I predict that if we beat Belgium we will be in pot 1
I've not got the brain of Stephen Hawkins so this is simplistic based on the most 2 relevant factors, the forthcoming qualifier and last years world cup.
1 Germany 1687 Away to Gibralter which they will win
Germany will be above us
2. Belgium 1457 Away to us
The scenario is a win for us but that will still leave us 300 points short not allowing for their reduction for loosing to us. More crucially they got 4 very valuable wins in Brazil which will half in value.
We will be above Belgium
3. Netherlands 1301 Away to Latvia which they will win
However 5 wins and 2 draws ( plus an extra point for winning the penalty shoot out ) at the world cup will half in value and have a massive impact We will be above Holland
4. Portugal 1221 Away to Armenia which they will win
a win and a draw in the world cup will have minimal effect
Portugal will be above us
5. Switzerland 1135 Away to Lithuania which they will win
2 wins at the world cup will pull their points down and Lithuania will score low for them but they'll still be enough Switzerland will be above us
6 Spain 1132 Away to Belarus which they will win
Only 1 win in the world cup should help them but they are loosing a lot of historic points so it will be tight but they will get there
Spain to be above us
7. France 1127 no competitive fixture
3 wins and a draw at the world cup will really knock they points total. However there must be some protection to their ranking as they're unable to gain many points at present
We will be above France
8. Romania 1086 away to Northern Ireland which I thin they will win
No world cup effect a draw or win in NI sees them stay above us
Romania will be above us
9. Italy 1085 away to Croatia too tight to call
Only 1 win at the world cup will probably have slightly positive uplift for them. A win or draw will enough for them Italy will be above us
10 England 1030 away to Slovenia which they will win
Just 1 draw in the world cup will give them a huge uplift when its relevance is halved.
England will be above us
11 Croatia 977 home to Italy
1 win at the world cup so slight uplift. They will need to beat Italy to be above us and in which case Italy would be below us
we will be above Croatia
12 Czeck Rep 923 away to Iceland which I'll assume they will win
We'll get more points from beating Belgium to close the difference
we will be above the Czech rep
13, Slovakia 920 home to macedonia which they will win
We'll get more points from beating Belgium to close the difference
we will be above Slovakia
14. wales 916 On that basis we'll be 8th and even allowing for special allowances for France we will be in pot 1.
Clearly Belgium home has become the most important welsh game in my lifetime. A win and we'll be in France and give us a huge chance in the next world cup qualifiers.
Germany/Holland/Belgium will be ranked above Wales no matter what. Romania/England/Spain/Portugal are almost sure of pot 1. Your best bet is to catch Italy/Croatia. Switzerland/France will drop to pot 2 Holland will drop a load of points when the July rankings come out. Fantastic in Brazil pretty average since. If we beat Belgium we'll be above them.
Belgium also did very well in Brazil and will drop a load of points but they're further ahead of us so it will be tighter but accounting for the loss to us it will be close
Romania/England/Spain/Portugal
I've said they'll finish above us but actually
Romania if they lost in NI we would finish above them England will be top 6 in the world when last years world cup is out of the current years averages. Spain Dropping more historic points than any one else but will just have enough. You'll be surprised how close we get though Portugal Far enough ahead to stay ahead
Italy/Croatia Switzerland /France
Italy / Croatia We'll finish above one of them definitely Switzerland I don't see us finishing above these. They will beat Lithuania, lose a few points after a relatively good world cup but are too far ahead. France they lose a load of points after a good world cup and aren't playing competitive fixtures we will be above them
Czech Rep and Slovakia.
You've not mentioned these. These might be the hardest to get past. Like us they weren't at the world cup and don't play many competitive fixtures at this time of year. Consequently they wont be losing many points - Slovakia in particular have even less historic points than us.
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Post by eppingblue on Apr 3, 2015 13:29:36 GMT
Are we really guaranteed pot 2 even if we lose to Belgium? Would be an incredible rise, pot 1 is just dreamland Unfortunately not but at the moment most of us are just looking up.
It would take 5 teams to get past us, 6 if one of those is Russia.
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Post by walesaway on Apr 3, 2015 13:31:49 GMT
We have to scrap the Northern Ireland friendly then surely? The only threat rankings-wise for that game is if Northern Ireland beat us and gain enough points to leapfrog us. Defeats just mean 0 points, not negative points. However I don't think the NI friendly is a good idea anyway. |
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the carls
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Post by ger27 on Apr 3, 2015 13:53:48 GMT
We have to scrap the Northern Ireland friendly then surely? The only threat rankings-wise for that game is if Northern Ireland beat us and gain enough points to leapfrog us. Defeats just mean 0 points, not negative points. However I don't think the NI friendly is a good idea anyway. It does have a negative effective - you would be dividing the points gained in the last year with a further game, thus giving us a lower average for the past 12 months. The rankings work on the average number of points gained in each 12 month period, not the cumulation of points. |
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Post by eppingblue on Apr 3, 2015 13:54:43 GMT
We have to scrap the Northern Ireland friendly then surely? The only threat rankings-wise for that game is if Northern Ireland beat us and gain enough points to leapfrog us. Defeats just mean 0 points, not negative points. However I don't think the NI friendly is a good idea anyway. In effect you do. Points are averaged over the number of games played in the year so if you lose a game your average goes down. In addition you have the ranking competition. So you get more points for beating Armenia in the euro's than you would for beating Germany in a friendly. So playing NI at this stage would not be a good idea although I used to think that they didn't count friendlies in world cup seeding but I'm pretty sure they now take it from the ranking table at the time.
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Post by erasedcitizen on Apr 3, 2015 14:17:55 GMT
That article seems to think Switzerland are destined for pot 2, meaning we'd be above them right?
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Post by flynnfan on Apr 3, 2015 14:19:28 GMT
The next game is 3rd in the world vs 22nd. Clash of the Titans! ..can't wait.
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Post by cadno on Apr 3, 2015 14:57:25 GMT
-----------------------Courtois------------------------
Alderweireld--Vermalen--Lombaerts---Vertonghen
-----------Fellaini---Nainggolan--Witsel-------------
--------DeBruyne-----Benteke------Hazard---------
------------------------Vokes-------------------------
----Joniesta----------Ramsey-----------Bale--------
-----------------Ledley--------Allen-------------------
---Taylor------Williams-----Chester-------Gunter---
----------------------Hennessey-----------------------
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Post by eppingblue on Apr 3, 2015 15:05:11 GMT
Waiting for the July FIFA rankings will be like waiting for XMAS.
I predict that if we beat Belgium we will be in pot 1
I've not got the brain of Stephen Hawkins so this is simplistic based on the most 2 relevant factors, the forthcoming qualifier and last years world cup.
1 Germany 1687 Away to Gibralter which they will win
Germany will be above us
2. Belgium 1457 Away to us
The scenario is a win for us but that will still leave us 300 points short not allowing for their reduction for loosing to us. More crucially they got 4 very valuable wins in Brazil which will half in value.
We will be above Belgium
3. Netherlands 1301 Away to Latvia which they will win
However 5 wins and 2 draws ( plus an extra point for winning the penalty shoot out ) at the world cup will half in value and have a massive impact We will be above Holland
4. Portugal 1221 Away to Armenia which they will win
a win and a draw in the world cup will have minimal effect
Portugal will be above us
5. Switzerland 1135 Away to Lithuania which they will win
2 wins at the world cup will pull their points down and Lithuania will score low for them but they'll still be enough Switzerland will be above us
6 Spain 1132 Away to Belarus which they will win
Only 1 win in the world cup should help them but they are loosing a lot of historic points so it will be tight but they will get there
Spain to be above us
7. France 1127 no competitive fixture
3 wins and a draw at the world cup will really knock they points total. However there must be some protection to their ranking as they're unable to gain many points at present
We will be above France
8. Romania 1086 away to Northern Ireland which I thin they will win
No world cup effect a draw or win in NI sees them stay above us
Romania will be above us
9. Italy 1085 away to Croatia too tight to call
Only 1 win at the world cup will probably have slightly positive uplift for them. A win or draw will enough for them Italy will be above us
10 England 1030 away to Slovenia which they will win
Just 1 draw in the world cup will give them a huge uplift when its relevance is halved.
England will be above us
11 Croatia 977 home to Italy
1 win at the world cup so slight uplift. They will need to beat Italy to be above us and in which case Italy would be below us
we will be above Croatia
12 Czeck Rep 923 away to Iceland which I'll assume they will win
We'll get more points from beating Belgium to close the difference
we will be above the Czech rep
13, Slovakia 920 home to macedonia which they will win
We'll get more points from beating Belgium to close the difference
we will be above Slovakia
14. wales 916 On that basis we'll be 8th and even allowing for special allowances for France we will be in pot 1.
Clearly Belgium home has become the most important welsh game in my lifetime. A win and we'll be in France and give us a huge chance in the next world cup qualifiers.
Germany/Holland/Belgium will be ranked above Wales no matter what. Romania/England/Spain/Portugal are almost sure of pot 1. Your best bet is to catch Italy/Croatia. Switzerland/France will drop to pot 2 If you take the World Cup out of Holland's average which it will be come the draw in July then Holland's average drops nearly 700 points. A friendly with the USA and a euro game against Latvia wont get very far into that. I know they'll get 50% of that put into the next bracket but its still a big hit. |
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Post by cymruramdcfc on Apr 3, 2015 15:43:15 GMT
Not on official FIFA rankings, that's not updated till April 9th
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Post by ontheroadagain on Apr 3, 2015 16:32:31 GMT
Not on official FIFA rankings, that's not updated till April 9th Edgar is usually right in these matters. If FIFA pulled their fingers out and updated the rankings sooner there would be less need for the great work that Edgar is doing. |
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Post by stu on Apr 3, 2015 17:02:47 GMT
Seriously?! I thought it was almost mathematically impossible for us to be pot 2 for the WC draw? Pot 2 - 73.22% - Wales Pot 1 - 26.78% - Wales So for 7,322 simulations we ended up in pot 2, all the rest we got into pot 1. I also asked him if a friendly with NI will harm our chances of pot 1 and he says it will drop it slightly to 25.55%. I probably shouldn't have said "beat Belgium and we're pot 1" as it'll no doubt also depend on other teams. But still, we're at least pot 2 with 1 in 4 chance of being pot 1 and in the automatic qualifying slot for the Euros at the half way stage.  But in case anyone at the FAW is reading this, don't organise a friendly for June. |
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Post by phillygaz on Apr 3, 2015 17:22:51 GMT
For a mixture of new destinations and beatable opponents, I’d go: Romania, Wales, Iceland, Armenia, Faroe Islands, Malta Could you ever have imagined the possibility of us getting a group like that? Great times! |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 3, 2015 19:38:59 GMT
Seriously?! I thought it was almost mathematically impossible for us to be pot 2 for the WC draw? Pot 2 - 73.22% - Wales Pot 1 - 26.78% - Wales So for 7,322 simulations we ended up in pot 2, all the rest we got into pot 1. I also asked him if a friendly with NI will harm our chances of pot 1 and he says it will drop it slightly to 25.55%. I probably shouldn't have said "beat Belgium and we're pot 1" as it'll no doubt also depend on other teams. But still, we're at least pot 2 with 1 in 4 chance of being pot 1 and in the automatic qualifying slot for the Euros at the half way stage. But in case anyone at the FAW is reading this, don't organise a friendly for June. Wow, what progress. I hope we can blag Pot 1. I imagine that if we do we will slip in there unannounced until the draw when everyone will be all like 'What the fuck are Wales doing in pot 1?!" |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 3, 2015 19:41:29 GMT
If we are 22nd in the world, what are we in UEFA?
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Post by walesaway on Apr 3, 2015 19:59:07 GMT
If we are 22nd in the world, what are we in UEFA? 14th of UEFA nations in the FIFA rankings. We're 29th in the UEFA national team coefficient. There are a number of factors; coefficient considers competitive matches only, it covers 2.5 cycles (this qualifying campaign, the 2 previous + final tournaments), and scores are also factored in, so e.g. getting spanked 6-1 has a greater negative effect on coefficient than rankings. The coefficient doesn't consider strength of opponent, so a draw against 4th in the world is no different than drawing to 50th. |
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Post by ontheroadagain on Apr 3, 2015 20:08:18 GMT
For a mixture of new destinations and beatable opponents, I’d go: Romania, Wales, Iceland, Armenia, Faroe Islands, Malta Could you ever have imagined the possibility of us getting a group like that? Great times! all told. Good group in many ways. One way is that it is 4 new countries for the seniors, and 2 new countries all told. Expensive to go to Armenia but it would be interesting to see how it has changed over the years. |
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Post by llannerch on Apr 3, 2015 20:11:11 GMT
I took little notice of the rankings when we were over 100 and should probably take just as little now. But to be so high is intoxicating and whatever the pros and cons of it, they are important for future groups
If we are still so high in 2-3 years that will suggest we are matching or even bettering our recent results...which will mean we have qualified for France and will be competitive for Russia
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Post by llannerch on Apr 3, 2015 20:15:44 GMT
Anyone else waiting with bated breath for Delme Parfitt's take on the rankings? He's long been a keen observer of Wales's position in them
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Post by ontheroadagain on Apr 3, 2015 20:19:24 GMT
Anyone else waiting with bated breath for Delme Parfitt's take on the rankings? He's long been a keen observer of Wales's position in them Possibly a member of this board may ask him, or point this out to him!  |
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Post by jackson on Apr 4, 2015 10:19:53 GMT
If we are 22nd in the world, what are we in UEFA? uefa uses their own ranking system.  |
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Post by walesaway on Apr 4, 2015 10:35:52 GMT
Both systems are of importance to us; FIFA rankings will be used for seeding the draw for 2018 WC qualifiers, UEFA coefficient for Euro 2016 finals & likely the 2020 Euro qualifiers.
Important that we climb both.
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Post by flynnfan on Apr 4, 2015 11:00:24 GMT
Anyone else waiting with bated breath for Delme Parfitt's take on the rankings? He's long been a keen observer of Wales's position in them I tweeted to ask him. I was very polite. He's now blocked me. The twat. |
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Post by welshiron on Apr 4, 2015 11:39:02 GMT
That is a massive difference between the 2 and the difference between pot 2 and pot 4
What are the differences in the calculations
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Post by holmesdaleultra on Apr 4, 2015 12:09:28 GMT
I do agree but I'm just as impressed with our defensive record this campaign as I am with Bale. I'm sure Bale has helped some way (directly or indirectly) in that as well though. Scoring goals is always looked at as more important than the defence, but having only conceded 2 goals so far I'd give our defence quite a few points too. I'm pretty sure our defence has improved more than Bale has. Yeah good point. As much as I have banged on about us relying too much on Bale the second name on the team sheet for me, even ahead of Ramsey, is Chester. Is it coincidence that our defensive solidity improved almost overnight with his introduction? Hes been an exceptional find and one of the key components that has slotted into place and put us where we currently are. Collins was good against Israel, but he is very limited all round compared to Chester. Chester and Williams also seem to make a more cohesive unit together. You could do worse as a club manager than buy Williams for 20 odd million and pick up Chester at cut price and build a team round them. I have signed Williams and zChester team of the weeks but only for my fifa 15 make a formidable pairing. |
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