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Post by riomazy05 on Oct 13, 2021 11:04:48 GMT
So as its stands in playoffd
6 seeded v 6 unseeded
Por/Spa/Pol/Swi/Cro/Cze
Ukr/Nor/Sco/Rom/Wal/Aus
Don't fancy our chances unless we get away cze then Cro at home in final.
Even if por.spa replace serb.Swe
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Post by iot on Oct 13, 2021 11:16:47 GMT
So as its stands in playoffd 6 seeded v 6 unseeded Por/Spa/Pol/Swi/Cro/Cze Ukr/Nor/Sco/Rom/Wal/Aus Don't fancy our chances unless we get away cze then Cro at home in final. Even if por.spa replace serb.Swe Czech can only get 14pts, so they won't stay there, so we're looking at Ukr/Nor/Sco replacing them? |
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Post by saturn9 on Oct 13, 2021 11:17:51 GMT
So as its stands in playoffd 6 seeded v 6 unseeded Por/Spa/Pol/Swi/Cro/Cze Ukr/Nor/Sco/Rom/Wal/Aus Don't fancy our chances unless we get away cze then Cro at home in final. Even if por.spa replace serb.Swe Croats in a one off game is not a game I'd look forward to. Last chance for their 'star' players to qualify for another major tournament. |
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Post by dragonsoccer on Oct 13, 2021 11:22:09 GMT
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Post by fiveattheback on Oct 13, 2021 11:24:09 GMT
The boffins at Global Football ran simulations and reckon it'll be:
Seeded
Poland, Serbia, Switzerland, Spain, Croatia, Scotland
Unseeded
Austria, Romania, Czechia, WALES, Ukraine, Norway
Although if we get to 15 it's likely we'll be seeded
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Post by rioonamazy on Oct 13, 2021 11:56:50 GMT
So as its stands in playoffd 6 seeded v 6 unseeded Por/Spa/Pol/Swi/Cro/Cze Ukr/Nor/Sco/Rom/Wal/Aus Don't fancy our chances unless we get away cze then Cro at home in final. Even if por.spa replace serb.Swe Croats in a one off game is not a game I'd look forward to. Last chance for their 'star' players to qualify for another major tournament. rather a one off at home than away in Croatia. Wales are likely to have an away game so czech away is winnable |
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Post by welshrover on Oct 13, 2021 12:09:50 GMT
So put quite simply to give ourselves the best chance and not rely on XY and Z, we need to get six points from the remaining two games!!
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Post by Deleted on Oct 13, 2021 12:16:52 GMT
I watched lots of the game last night and they could and should have lost,they were carved open a few times,pretty poor really,but they got the win and there is no doubt they are on the up results wise.
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Post by notpropaganda on Oct 13, 2021 12:55:13 GMT
But I do revel in how shit our wins are?! Ha. I guess it's part of the whole 'home-nations' rivalry thing, but I do like to compare ourselves to ROI, Scotland and NI. I think you're doing ROI a disservice though. The Nations League game in Ireland was particularly close, and if we are to be honest with ourselves, Ireland probably edged it, and deserved the win. We only barely beat them at home in a god awful game of football. And yes, they've had some shit results recently, but they are a team in ascendency, that's obvious. Fuck it, I'm going to call it now - they will beat Portugal at home. They have probably improved as a team more than what we have over the last few years. In that case compare us with Scotland then because I’m not having it that their results are any better than ours. We have taken 4 points off the Czechs either side of them beating Scotland. Their result tonight shows how easy it can be to struggle against a minnow nation. To invert your point about ROI if Scotland took a result like that too much to heart in the way that you have with Estonia they would be sat in the dressing room feeling like they have lost right now- how would that help them with a game against Moldova to come to seal a play off place? I’ll keep an eye out for the ROI’s final qualifiers now, I guess if Portugal have already qualified they will rest Ronaldo and it’s not beyond the realms of possibility the ROI could win. not that it matters to you, but Portugal need to beat us to stay in control of the group. They're a point behind Serbia at the minute and they play eachother in the final match. We also should have won in Faro and Ronaldo scored twice in the dying minutes to win it. So even with him and Portugal having to win, it's not beyond the realms of possibility we can win either  fwiw I'd rather be in with a shot of qualifying of course, but it does feel like we've turned a corner after a turgid few years. Reasons to be optimistic at least. All the best for the rest of qualification |
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Post by rioonamazy on Oct 13, 2021 13:02:38 GMT
The boffins at Global Football ran simulations and reckon it'll be: Seeded Poland, Serbia, Switzerland, Spain, Croatia, Scotland Unseeded Austria, Romania, Czechia, WALES, Ukraine, Norway Although if we get to 15 it's likely we'll be seeded where is this link. Fail to see how Scotland are seeded when they are 23rd in NL ranking which are now the uefa rankings. |
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Post by rioonamazy on Oct 13, 2021 13:49:58 GMT
OK found it on twitter. My bad.
Getting confused with NL spots & UEFA qualifying for a FIFA tournament. Scotland seeded is a joke they're currently 45th.
This is where NL is justified and euro teams are ranked as they should be on merit by playing each other.
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Post by rossettred on Oct 13, 2021 13:58:43 GMT
So if I’ve read the link correctly, both Wales and the Czech Republic are going to qualify for the play-offs, either via second place in the group or a Nations League spot. I hadn’t really appreciated the fact that the Czechs in effect have a guaranteed play-off place as well. |
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Post by morg on Oct 13, 2021 15:12:04 GMT
So if I’ve read the link correctly, both Wales and the Czech Republic are going to qualify for the play-offs, either via second place in the group or a Nations League spot. I hadn’t really appreciated the fact that the Czechs in effect have a guaranteed play-off place as well. Yep 3rd in line NL wise behind us and Austria, so they'd either finish 2nd in group or take our NL spot, if we finished 2nd. Looks unlikely they can be seeded I guess? |
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Post by allezlesrouges on Oct 13, 2021 15:23:00 GMT
I'm just absolutely amazed at how much you've criticised our performances and results, yet continue to cite ROI as a positive example of what you want us to beIf we lost at home to Luxembourg and drew at home to Azerbaijan in qualifiers you would absolutely HAMMERING us!! How can you not see that?? You can't honestly want us to swap positions with them. I literally don't believe you're being genuine if you do. You really want us to be completely out of the picture for qualification already? Just to see us score a couple of more goals in a single game, where all that really matters is a win anyway? I didn't say that I want us to aspire to be like ROI, I was purely pointing out that they're a team in ascendency whereas we've been consistently poor overall for the best part of 12-18 months - we are still stagnant and not creative enough on the pitch. Have you seen improvements in our gameplan, performances and general form? Sorry, but until Ireland start getting results against the likes of Czech Republic, Switzerland, Slovakia, Hungary, Croatia, Finland, Turkey, then they're not in the ascendancy. Scoring a couple of goals against a minnow isn't really progression If consistently poor actually means regularly getting good results against those teams I've mentioned then yes we are very poor I have seen a lot of improvements in our defense since Giggs first took charge. I've seen improvements in our ability to find a way to get the results we need since Coleman's last campaign. We're better at staying in games and nicking goals when we don't necessarily deserve it. We've also done that with a team that is very young, inexperienced, not getting regular game time for club, or slightly over the hill |
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Post by morg on Oct 13, 2021 15:50:36 GMT
Could get interesting if Scotland lose in Moldova and the latter move off the bottom of their group? Scots would then be on 11 points for seeding purposes and lose their 5-0 goal difference v the Faroes.
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Post by jbt95 on Oct 13, 2021 16:50:33 GMT
At half time tonight there are many twists & turns left in many groups. Italy to not finish top for instance? Portugal? England? Looks like Spain will have to beat Sweden on the last day to qualify automatically too. |
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Post by insertname on Oct 13, 2021 17:21:35 GMT
In that case compare us with Scotland then because I’m not having it that their results are any better than ours. We have taken 4 points off the Czechs either side of them beating Scotland. Their result tonight shows how easy it can be to struggle against a minnow nation. To invert your point about ROI if Scotland took a result like that too much to heart in the way that you have with Estonia they would be sat in the dressing room feeling like they have lost right now- how would that help them with a game against Moldova to come to seal a play off place? I’ll keep an eye out for the ROI’s final qualifiers now, I guess if Portugal have already qualified they will rest Ronaldo and it’s not beyond the realms of possibility the ROI could win. not that it matters to you, but Portugal need to beat us to stay in control of the group. They're a point behind Serbia at the minute and they play eachother in the final match. We also should have won in Faro and Ronaldo scored twice in the dying minutes to win it. So even with him and Portugal having to win, it's not beyond the realms of possibility we can win either fwiw I'd rather be in with a shot of qualifying of course, but it does feel like we've turned a corner after a turgid few years. Reasons to be optimistic at least. All the best for the rest of qualification Actually fair point, I forgot that you were winning away from home until late on weren’t you? I won’t be putting any money on you to beat them at home then but it sounds like you’ve actually turned this into a somewhat decent campaign with that scoreline vs Portugal (if not the result) and some wins to show some signs of improvement. If it’s any consolation as I’ve said above I think we’ll be in your shoes soon enough, if that does happen we can start to turn things round as quickly as you have. Best of luck yourself for the next campaign, hopefully it doesn’t involve us though with the regularity we have played you over the last 5 years! |
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Post by johnoster on Oct 13, 2021 20:15:41 GMT
Scotland play off.
Nailed on.
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Post by CrackityJones on Oct 21, 2021 12:27:41 GMT
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Post by saturn9 on Oct 21, 2021 13:58:21 GMT
How bad is the Lukaku injury? Enough to sideline him for the game in Cardiff.
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Post by dai on Oct 21, 2021 14:20:01 GMT
How bad is the Lukaku injury? Enough to sideline him for the game in Cardiff. Says this on Sky: 'Lukaku and Werner will miss a packed schedule for Chelsea over the next few weeks with Tuchel's side playing five games in 15 days, starting with the visit of Norwich to Stamford Bridge on Saturday.' |
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Post by rioonamazy on Oct 21, 2021 14:45:38 GMT
The seedings as things stand are: Seeded – 1st Portgual, 16pts, 2nd Switzerland 14pts, 3rd Scotland 14pts, 4th Spain 13pts, 5th Poland 11pts, 6th Croatia 11pts. Unseeded – 7th Czech Republic 11pts, 8th Norway 11pts, 9th Romania 10pts, 10th Ukraine 9pts, 11th Wales (Nations League), 12th Austria (Nations League). imo after the games it will be SWE 18/SERB 17/SWI 17/POL 17/RUS 16/CZE 14 SCO 14/NOR 14/UKR 12/ROM 13 WAL / AUS Minimum requirement is probably 15 points to replace CZE and creep into top seeds and get home game. |
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Post by insertname on Oct 21, 2021 16:10:04 GMT
How bad is the Lukaku injury? Enough to sideline him for the game in Cardiff. Says this on Sky: 'Lukaku and Werner will miss a packed schedule for Chelsea over the next few weeks with Tuchel's side playing five games in 15 days, starting with the visit of Norwich to Stamford Bridge on Saturday.' I wouldn’t expect him to start either way. But an injury would rule him out of even being a late sub if they weren’t winning. Fingers crossed |
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Post by saturn9 on Oct 21, 2021 18:10:53 GMT
Ex Palace loanee Michy isn't a bad replacement. Should never have moved to Chelsea at that stage of his career.
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Post by gwernybwch on Oct 23, 2021 7:39:44 GMT
The seedings as things stand are: Seeded – 1st Portgual, 16pts, 2nd Switzerland 14pts, 3rd Scotland 14pts, 4th Spain 13pts, 5th Poland 11pts, 6th Croatia 11pts. Unseeded – 7th Czech Republic 11pts, 8th Norway 11pts, 9th Romania 10pts, 10th Ukraine 9pts, 11th Wales (Nations League), 12th Austria (Nations League). imo after the games it will be SWE 18/SERB 17/SWI 17/POL 17/RUS 16/CZE 14 SCO 14/NOR 14/UKR 12/ROM 13 WAL / AUS Minimum requirement is probably 15 points to replace CZE and creep into top seeds and get home game. Am I missing something? Aren't Poland and Scotland already on 17 points? So Czech's can't overtake Scotland now to go into home seeded group? Close call on Russia / Croatia they have a game on the final match day. Croatia have to win the game to top the group. Similarly Sweden vs Spain on their final game. |
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Post by eppingblue1 on Oct 23, 2021 10:08:58 GMT
The seedings as things stand are: Seeded – 1st Portgual, 16pts, 2nd Switzerland 14pts, 3rd Scotland 14pts, 4th Spain 13pts, 5th Poland 11pts, 6th Croatia 11pts. Unseeded – 7th Czech Republic 11pts, 8th Norway 11pts, 9th Romania 10pts, 10th Ukraine 9pts, 11th Wales (Nations League), 12th Austria (Nations League). imo after the games it will be SWE 18/SERB 17/SWI 17/POL 17/RUS 16/CZE 14 SCO 14/NOR 14/UKR 12/ROM 13 WAL / AUS Minimum requirement is probably 15 points to replace CZE and creep into top seeds and get home game. Am I missing something? Aren't Poland and Scotland already on 17 points? So Czech's can't overtake Scotland now to go into home seeded group? Close call on Russia / Croatia they have a game on the final match day. Croatia have to win the game to top the group. Similarly Sweden vs Spain on their final game. Those in groups with 6 teams have their results against the bottom team removed when comparing across groups. So for instance Scotland will have their result / results against Moldova taken away when comparing the best 2nd place finishers. |
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Post by allezlesrouges on Nov 10, 2021 21:06:22 GMT
The below twitter account is great for probability statistics, overall they rank us as the 41st most likely team to qualify for the 32 World Cup spots (we have a 21% chance of qualifying according to them). By their estimates, we'd have to over-perform from to qualify from here
The European teams projected to qualify are; Germany (Q), Denmark (Q), England, Belgium, France, Portugal, Italy, Netherlands, Sweden, Spain, Russia, Croatia & Switzerland. The other European teams ahead of us still are Serbia, Poland & Norway
Interestingly, Canada have a 95% chance of qualifying now!
/photo/1
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Post by iot on Nov 11, 2021 13:17:11 GMT
Ten games on this evening. I guess we're most interested in the following results -
Ireland v Portugal, hopefully a Portugal win to increase their chances of winning the group
Georgia v Sweden, Sweden to lose points in order to increase the chances of Spain topping the group
Greece v Spain, Spain win see above
Armenia v North Macedonia, Macedonia win to get them in the playoff mix over Romania
Romania V Iceland, Iceland win - see above
Russia v Cyprus, Russia to slip up in order to allow Croatia to win the group + a draw would put them on just 14pts, meaning that if they lose to croatia in their final game we would top them for the top 6 2nd place teams if we get 4pts
Malta v Croatia, Croatia win see above
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Post by pclaude on Nov 11, 2021 14:15:08 GMT
Ten games on this evening. I guess we're most interested in the following results - Ireland v Portugal, hopefully a Portugal win to increase their chances of winning the group Georgia v Sweden, Sweden to lose points in order to increase the chances of Spain topping the group Greece v Spain, Spain win see above Armenia v North Macedonia, Macedonia win to get them in the playoff mix over Romania Romania V Iceland, Iceland win - see above Russia v Cyprus, Russia to slip up in order to allow Croatia to win the group + a draw would put them on just 14pts, meaning that if they lose to croatia in their final game we would top them for the top 6 2nd place teams if we get 4pts Malta v Croatia, Croatia win see above Unless Greece win, we will be confirmed in the play offs |
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Post by insertname on Nov 11, 2021 14:24:51 GMT
The below twitter account is great for probability statistics, overall they rank us as the 41st most likely team to qualify for the 32 World Cup spots (we have a 21% chance of qualifying according to them). By their estimates, we'd have to over-perform from to qualify from here The European teams projected to qualify are; Germany (Q), Denmark (Q), England, Belgium, France, Portugal, Italy, Netherlands, Sweden, Spain, Russia, Croatia & Switzerland. The other European teams ahead of us still are Serbia, Poland & Norway Interestingly, Canada have a 95% chance of qualifying now! /photo/1 So basically the same old suspects then. God European international football is so dull, a handful of places with which to try and break the stranglehold the big nations have on the World Cup. Qualifying for the 32 team format in many ways feels comparable to getting to the Euros semi finals, there’s just no margin for injuries or suspensions for teams like us. Meanwhile we see wild cards qualify all the time from other confederations. |
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