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Post by fiveattheback on Nov 11, 2021 15:20:33 GMT
The below twitter account is great for probability statistics, overall they rank us as the 41st most likely team to qualify for the 32 World Cup spots (we have a 21% chance of qualifying according to them). By their estimates, we'd have to over-perform from to qualify from here The European teams projected to qualify are; Germany (Q), Denmark (Q), England, Belgium, France, Portugal, Italy, Netherlands, Sweden, Spain, Russia, Croatia & Switzerland. The other European teams ahead of us still are Serbia, Poland & Norway Interestingly, Canada have a 95% chance of qualifying now! /photo/1 So basically the same old suspects then. God European international football is so dull, a handful of places with which to try and break the stranglehold the big nations have on the World Cup. Qualifying for the 32 team format in many ways feels comparable to getting to the Euros semi finals, there’s just no margin for injuries or suspensions for teams like us. Meanwhile we see wild cards qualify all the time from other confederations. Realistically there should be more places for European teams at the World Cup as it's the strongest continent by far, but that won't go down well with the other confederations. The balance of quality will get worse in the 48 team monstrosity |
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Post by insertname on Nov 11, 2021 16:29:51 GMT
So basically the same old suspects then. God European international football is so dull, a handful of places with which to try and break the stranglehold the big nations have on the World Cup. Qualifying for the 32 team format in many ways feels comparable to getting to the Euros semi finals, there’s just no margin for injuries or suspensions for teams like us. Meanwhile we see wild cards qualify all the time from other confederations. Realistically there should be more places for European teams at the World Cup as it's the strongest continent by far, but that won't go down well with the other confederations. The balance of quality will get worse in the 48 team monstrosity I know, the 48 team World Cup isn’t the answer, even then the irony is that there will be more places given to African or North American sides. Europe suffers from the ubiquity of its teams always being in the latter stages these days so it seems like we dominate the competition when it’s actually just the same old teams and no thought is given to how it feels to be a country where the only route to a World Cup is to get past these bloody teams in the first place or you’re essentially locked out. I don’t know what the solution is, giving more places to Europe at the expense of others under the 32 team format seems wrong, expanding the format seems wrong. Either way there is never any sympathy for the medium to smaller European nations who, with only 10 or so spots are usually competing for 2 of those places once you account for the top European sides for whom qualifying is a triviality. |
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Post by welshrover on Nov 11, 2021 17:28:37 GMT
I have an answer to make the World Cup and any other sport more interesting...
Do away with seedings, have an open draw.
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Post by dai on Nov 11, 2021 17:42:07 GMT
ROI vs Portugal should be interesting tonight.
I think a cheeky bet on ROI to win wouldn't be a bad idea.....
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Post by iot on Nov 11, 2021 17:52:58 GMT
Ten games on this evening. I guess we're most interested in the following results - Ireland v Portugal, hopefully a Portugal win to increase their chances of winning the group Georgia v Sweden, Sweden to lose points in order to increase the chances of Spain topping the group Greece v Spain, Spain win see above Armenia v North Macedonia, Macedonia win to get them in the playoff mix over Romania Romania V Iceland, Iceland win - see above Russia v Cyprus, Russia to slip up in order to allow Croatia to win the group + a draw would put them on just 14pts, meaning that if they lose to croatia in their final game we would top them for the top 6 2nd place teams if we get 4pts Malta v Croatia, Croatia win see above 2 of the 3 early kickoffs going our way at half time with North Macedonia winning and GeorgiavSweden still at 0-0. Russia are one up against Cyprus though, doh! |
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Post by CrackityJones on Nov 11, 2021 19:04:07 GMT
Georgia 2 - 0 Sweden. That’s got to knock the stuffing out of them as well.
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Post by dai on Nov 11, 2021 19:10:10 GMT
Azerbaijan 1 - Luxembourg 3. I swear Luxembourg just became a decent team overnight.
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Post by quetzal on Nov 11, 2021 19:43:06 GMT
We Football predictions take with a pinch of salt. It they were right we’d all be millionaires.
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Post by allezlesrouges on Nov 11, 2021 20:31:16 GMT
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Post by dai on Nov 11, 2021 21:23:46 GMT
ROI vs Portugal should be interesting tonight. I think a cheeky bet on ROI to win wouldn't be a bad idea..... Still on... Think they're going to sneak it here. I haven't seen the full game, but I hope we can perform just as effective against Belgium. |
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Post by allezlesrouges on Nov 11, 2021 21:43:38 GMT
There we have it - a World Cup playoff spot finally in the bag for the 1st time since 1958!
Congrats to Page and the team, despite all the criticism they've got us there. Here's hoping we can push hard now to make it a home game!
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Post by welshrover on Nov 11, 2021 21:56:27 GMT
Azerbaijan 1 - Luxembourg 3. I swear Luxembourg just became a decent team overnight. Luxembourg have been improving the last few years. Could well finish above ROI in this group. |
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Post by allezlesrouges on Nov 11, 2021 22:07:19 GMT
Azerbaijan 1 - Luxembourg 3. I swear Luxembourg just became a decent team overnight. Luxembourg have been improving the last few years. Could well finish above ROI in this group. Yep - Ireland have to beat them away to finish above them. If they had lost to Portugal tonight they'd be guaranteed to finish behind them That Sebastien Thill seems to pop up everywhere I look after scoring in the Bernabeu and the San Siro despite failing to score at Leckwith stadium. He's scored again tonight Will be interested to see the result when Ireland finish their campaign against them |
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Post by marsvolta on Nov 11, 2021 22:10:02 GMT
There we have it - a World Cup playoff spot finally in the bag for the 1st time since 1958! Congrats to Page and the team, despite all the criticism they've got us there. Here's hoping we can push hard now to make it a home game! Amazing how four years ago we were devastated to miss out on a playoff spot after the home defeat to ROI, yet this time we’ve managed it before we’ve kicked off our second to last game. |
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Post by welshrover on Nov 11, 2021 22:14:19 GMT
There we have it - a World Cup playoff spot finally in the bag for the 1st time since 1958! Congrats to Page and the team, despite all the criticism they've got us there. Here's hoping we can push hard now to make it a home game! To be fair we have got it off the back of the Nations League which would have been down to R. Giggs. |
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Post by allezlesrouges on Nov 11, 2021 22:25:09 GMT
Points of note going into tomorrow's games - it's very bad news for us if Switzerland pull off a win against Italy as they would then go into the last game at home to Bulgaria needing only a draw to put Italy into the playoffs. Worth keeping an eye on that one
If Scotland beat Moldova tomorrow they are guaranteed a playoff, but that won't contribute to whether they are home or away as Moldova are destined for bottom
The conclusion of Group G should be interesting with Netherlands (19pts), Norway (17pts), Turkey (15pts) all playing poor opposition (Montenegro, Latvia & Gibraltar respectively). Then in the final round of games Turkey play Montenegro which you'd expect them to win. That would mean Norway would only get a playoff if they avoid defeat in their final game away to the Netherlands. A tough ask. They could well slip up, and it's great news for us if Turkey make the playoffs at their expense
In Group H it's a straight shootout between Croatia and Russia for top spot. Croatia have to beat Russia at home to clinch it. A draw sees Russia top the group. Again will be important one to keep an eye on, as we don't want Croatia slipping into the playoffs
The nightmare scenario from here would be Portugal, Spain, Italy, Netherlands & Croatia all slipping into the playoffs (taken in isolation it wouldn't be unlikely for each of these teams to do that - although unlikely it will happen to more than 1 of them in reality), with Poland & Scotland already pretty much there
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Post by allezlesrouges on Nov 11, 2021 22:27:01 GMT
There we have it - a World Cup playoff spot finally in the bag for the 1st time since 1958! Congrats to Page and the team, despite all the criticism they've got us there. Here's hoping we can push hard now to make it a home game! To be fair we have got it off the back of the Nations League which would have been down to R. Giggs. Page got us over the line in difficult circumstances - those circumstances being Giggs = n*b. So I'd rather give thanks to Page if I'm being honest |
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Post by allezlesrouges on Nov 11, 2021 22:27:30 GMT
There we have it - a World Cup playoff spot finally in the bag for the 1st time since 1958! Congrats to Page and the team, despite all the criticism they've got us there. Here's hoping we can push hard now to make it a home game! Amazing how four years ago we were devastated to miss out on a playoff spot after the home defeat to ROI, yet this time we’ve managed it before we’ve kicked off our second to last game. Agreed! |
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Post by quetzal on Nov 11, 2021 23:29:50 GMT
Points of note going into tomorrow's games - it's very bad news for us if Switzerland pull off a win against Italy as they would then go into the last game at home to Bulgaria needing only a draw to put Italy into the playoffs. Worth keeping an eye on that one If Scotland beat Moldova tomorrow they are guaranteed a playoff, but that won't contribute to whether they are home or away as Moldova are destined for bottom The conclusion of Group G should be interesting with Netherlands (19pts), Norway (17pts), Turkey (15pts) all playing poor opposition (Montenegro, Latvia & Gibraltar respectively). Then in the final round of games Turkey play Montenegro which you'd expect them to win. That would mean Norway would only get a playoff if they avoid defeat in their final game away to the Netherlands. A tough ask. They could well slip up, and it's great news for us if Turkey make the playoffs at their expense In Group H it's a straight shootout between Croatia and Russia for top spot. Croatia have to beat Russia at home to clinch it. A draw sees Russia top the group. Again will be important one to keep an eye on, as we don't want Croatia slipping into the playoffs The nightmare scenario from here would be Portugal, Spain, Italy, Netherlands & Croatia all slipping into the playoffs (taken in isolation it wouldn't be unlikely for each of these teams to do that - although unlikely it will happen to more than 1 of them in reality), with Poland & Scotland already pretty much there What happens if we win both games? I think Cymru can do it |
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Post by insertname on Nov 11, 2021 23:34:30 GMT
There we have it - a World Cup playoff spot finally in the bag for the 1st time since 1958! Congrats to Page and the team, despite all the criticism they've got us there. Here's hoping we can push hard now to make it a home game! Amazing how four years ago we were devastated to miss out on a playoff spot after the home defeat to ROI, yet this time we’ve managed it before we’ve kicked off our second to last game. I don’t think you can compare the two. Imo a two legged game against the same opponent is a much better proposition than potentially playing two away games against different teams one of which could be seeded. Two much opportunity for error there |
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Post by insertname on Nov 11, 2021 23:38:39 GMT
To be fair we have got it off the back of the Nations League which would have been down to R. Giggs. Page got us over the line in difficult circumstances - those circumstances being Giggs = n*b. So I'd rather give thanks to Page if I'm being honest Why split hairs? The general wailing and gnashing of teeth that has characterised the Giggs/Page era will be put in perspective in years to come methinks. We’ve done well with what we’ve had imo you have to credit both of them with keeping the train on the rails despite our players not ageing well and the youngsters coming through not fulfilling their potential in the way it was hyped up that they would (well at least not yet anyway). |
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Post by pclaude on Nov 12, 2021 9:58:06 GMT
To be fair we have got it off the back of the Nations League which would have been down to R. Giggs. Page got us over the line in difficult circumstances - those circumstances being Giggs = n*b. So I'd rather give thanks to Page if I'm being honest We could have lost all 6 games so far and still be in the play offs so it's naff all to do with Page. So no, he hasnt got us across any line. |
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Post by jimexotic on Nov 12, 2021 10:20:05 GMT
Sweden got Georgia'd, they must be kicking themselves
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Post by iot on Nov 12, 2021 10:21:52 GMT
Page got us over the line in difficult circumstances - those circumstances being Giggs = n*b. So I'd rather give thanks to Page if I'm being honest We could have lost all 6 games so far and still be in the play offs so it's naff all to do with Page. So no, he hasnt got us across any line. You seem to have forgotten that Page came in to manage our last two games of the nations league - victories over Ireland and Finland - the latter was our most convincing performance of the campaign btw. |
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Post by allezlesrouges on Nov 12, 2021 10:39:59 GMT
Page got us over the line in difficult circumstances - those circumstances being Giggs = n*b. So I'd rather give thanks to Page if I'm being honest We could have lost all 6 games so far and still be in the play offs so it's naff all to do with Page. So no, he hasnt got us across any line. Right, so who was manager when we confirmed our Nations League group victory? |
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Post by allezlesrouges on Nov 12, 2021 10:41:51 GMT
Points of note going into tomorrow's games - it's very bad news for us if Switzerland pull off a win against Italy as they would then go into the last game at home to Bulgaria needing only a draw to put Italy into the playoffs. Worth keeping an eye on that one If Scotland beat Moldova tomorrow they are guaranteed a playoff, but that won't contribute to whether they are home or away as Moldova are destined for bottom The conclusion of Group G should be interesting with Netherlands (19pts), Norway (17pts), Turkey (15pts) all playing poor opposition (Montenegro, Latvia & Gibraltar respectively). Then in the final round of games Turkey play Montenegro which you'd expect them to win. That would mean Norway would only get a playoff if they avoid defeat in their final game away to the Netherlands. A tough ask. They could well slip up, and it's great news for us if Turkey make the playoffs at their expense In Group H it's a straight shootout between Croatia and Russia for top spot. Croatia have to beat Russia at home to clinch it. A draw sees Russia top the group. Again will be important one to keep an eye on, as we don't want Croatia slipping into the playoffs The nightmare scenario from here would be Portugal, Spain, Italy, Netherlands & Croatia all slipping into the playoffs (taken in isolation it wouldn't be unlikely for each of these teams to do that - although unlikely it will happen to more than 1 of them in reality), with Poland & Scotland already pretty much there What happens if we win both games? I think Cymru can do it Win both we definitely get a home game, win and a draw then it's pretty much 50/50 statistically speaking & depends on other results |
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Post by jimexotic on Nov 12, 2021 10:47:47 GMT
It's mad that we could do better than Scotland in a tougher group and potentially have to face them away in a play off. We've been better than them for nearly ten years and have been better in qualifying in the last seven years or so, it just doesn't seem right.
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Post by pclaude on Nov 12, 2021 10:51:17 GMT
We could have lost all 6 games so far and still be in the play offs so it's naff all to do with Page. So no, he hasnt got us across any line. Right, so who was manager when we confirmed our Nations League group victory? Rob Page. As I said. Or actually didnt as Im not tory scum and happy to admit to mistakes! Oops. |
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Post by pclaude on Nov 12, 2021 10:52:12 GMT
We could have lost all 6 games so far and still be in the play offs so it's naff all to do with Page. So no, he hasnt got us across any line. You seem to have forgotten that Page came in to manage our last two games of the nations league - victories over Ireland and Finland - the latter was our most convincing performance of the campaign btw. I have indeed. |
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Post by insertname on Nov 12, 2021 11:43:22 GMT
Even if he hadn’t won the last two nations league games he took 4 points off the Czechs and got us out of a Euros group perceived wisdom said we would finish bottom of.
The blots on his copy book are the pumping by Denmark and the Estonia game but the way I see it if the bloke was perfect he wouldn’t be managing Wales in the first place!
All in all, whilst it’s difficult to argue we could do better and could play better, in terms of results he deserves a lot of credit imo.
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