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Post by manulike on Nov 20, 2023 15:11:07 GMT
Anyone believe we'll win AND Armenia do us the favour tomorrow? YESSSS Lufthansa have a Black Friday sale from Thursday: +):+) Deutschland.Uber.Alles |
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Post by allezlesrouges on Nov 20, 2023 17:12:12 GMT
Here's our odds. Only 3% chance we get the results we need for auto qualification
In other news I've just seen that Georgia fielded Kvaratshkelia in a nothing game for them. He got booked, and now he will miss their first playoff. Potentially disastrous for them, when they didn't need to play him in what was essentially a glorified friendly
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Post by morg on Nov 20, 2023 17:35:03 GMT
So if Ethan, JJ or Neco get booked tomorrow, they'd miss the play off semi final?
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Post by morg on Nov 20, 2023 17:39:28 GMT
Here's our odds. Only 3% chance we get the results we need for auto qualification In other news I've just seen that Georgia fielded Kvaratshkelia in a nothing game for them. He got booked, and now he will miss their first playoff. Potentially disastrous for them, when they didn't need to play him in what was essentially a glorified friendly I take it that the above stat which shows us most likely to play Poland is misleading? We'd be more like to play one of the 3 group B teams mentioned. Just their odds go down if named as specific opponents? |
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Post by winsumluzsum on Nov 20, 2023 17:39:40 GMT
So if Ethan, JJ or Neco get booked tomorrow, they'd miss the play off semi final? Yup. Imagine if Ethan and JJ get booked  A desperate recall for Joe Allen would be in order methinks. |
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Post by surge on Nov 20, 2023 21:47:57 GMT
Northern Ireland beat Denmark 2-0 which means Denmark slip down to second in their group behind Slovenia.
Bet no one was predicting that this morning. Well done to Northern Ireland (and Slovenia, obviously) .
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Post by surge on Nov 20, 2023 21:55:28 GMT
Northern Ireland beat Denmark 2-0 which means Denmark slip down to second in their group behind Slovenia. Bet no one was predicting that this morning. Well done to Northern Ireland (and Slovenia, obviously) . A lesson in always checking a second source. Looks like Denmark still topped the group....someone find a third source to decide what's right!! |
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Post by morg on Nov 20, 2023 21:57:09 GMT
Northern Ireland beat Denmark 2-0 which means Denmark slip down to second in their group behind Slovenia. Bet no one was predicting that this morning. Well done to Northern Ireland (and Slovenia, obviously) . A lesson in always checking a second source. Looks like Denmark still topped the group....someone find a third source to decide what's right!! Yeah I think your 2nd source is right! Denmark took 4 points off Slovenia so won the head to head. |
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Post by winsumluzsum on Nov 20, 2023 22:25:37 GMT
The slenderest of silver linings but if Croatia qualify tomorrow with at least a draw Italy drop into pot 4. So if we do qualify via the playoffs then at least we won't face Italy.
Mind you Croatia would be in pot 3.
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Post by winsumluzsum on Nov 20, 2023 22:28:15 GMT
From We global
Pots Confirmed - EURO 2024
Pot 1
🇩🇪 Germany
🇵🇹 Portugal
🇫🇷 France
🇪🇸 Spain
🇧🇪 Belgium
🏴 England
Pot 2
🇭🇺 Hungary
🇩🇰 Denmark
🇦🇱 Albania
🇦🇹 Austria
Pot 3
🏴 Scotland
🇸🇮 Slovenia
🇸🇰 Slovakia
🇨🇿 Czech Republic
🇳🇱 Netherlands
Pot 4
🇷🇸 Serbia
Knowing our luck we will qualify and draw the Netherlands.
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Post by cynonvalley on Nov 20, 2023 22:30:02 GMT
From We global Pots Confirmed - EURO 2024 Pot 1 🇩🇪 Germany 🇵🇹 Portugal 🇫🇷 France 🇪🇸 Spain 🇧🇪 Belgium 🏴 England Pot 2 🇭🇺 Hungary 🇩🇰 Denmark 🇦🇱 Albania 🇦🇹 Austria Pot 3 🏴 Scotland 🇸🇮 Slovenia 🇸🇰 Slovakia 🇨🇿 Czech Republic 🇳🇱 Netherlands Pot 4 🇷🇸 Serbia Knowing our luck we will qualify and draw the Netherlands. England Denmark Netherlands Lol |
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Post by winsumluzsum on Nov 20, 2023 22:36:55 GMT
How about Belgium, Albania and Slovenia?
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Post by hooky on Nov 20, 2023 22:37:11 GMT
Belgium
Austria
Slovakia
Please!
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Post by winsumluzsum on Nov 20, 2023 22:38:49 GMT
Belgium Austria Slovakia Please! Would you prefer Austria to Albania and Slovakia to Slovenia? |
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Post by allezlesrouges on Nov 20, 2023 23:31:40 GMT
Albania will upset someone. Most of their starting XI will be playing for team in a top 5 European league. They're an avoid for the foreseeable future
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Post by jbt95 on Nov 21, 2023 7:51:30 GMT
Wouldn’t be surprised if we or Pathway A are in the same group as England and Scotland. Can just sense it.
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Post by hooky on Nov 21, 2023 8:24:13 GMT
Who actually cares what group we would have? Just want to get to Germany! I honestly think we have only a small chance of getting there given the setup and the fact we need someone like Poland to play well below themselves to do so. We really need a second home play off. If we draw Ukraine first then I just cannot see us beating them and then Poland
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Post by jbt95 on Nov 21, 2023 8:40:46 GMT
Who actually cares what group we would have? Just want to get to Germany! I honestly think we have only a small chance of getting there given the setup and the fact we need someone like Poland to play well below themselves to do so. We really need a second home play off. If we draw Ukraine first then I just cannot see us beating them and then Poland Ukraine home and Poland away would give us little hope, I agree. See what happens tonight first, and if we don’t qualify then we will all be waiting on Thursday 11am. |
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Post by fiveattheback on Nov 21, 2023 10:26:21 GMT
Who actually cares what group we would have? Just want to get to Germany! I honestly think we have only a small chance of getting there given the setup and the fact we need someone like Poland to play well below themselves to do so. We really need a second home play off. If we draw Ukraine first then I just cannot see us beating them and then Poland Ukraine home and Poland away would give us little hope, I agree. See what happens tonight first, and if we don’t qualify then we will all be waiting on Thursday 11am. Iceland home and pray that Estonia pull off a massive upset against Poland |
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Post by allezlesrouges on Nov 21, 2023 12:28:14 GMT
Ukraine home and Poland away would give us little hope, I agree. See what happens tonight first, and if we don’t qualify then we will all be waiting on Thursday 11am. Iceland home and pray that Estonia pull off a massive upset against Poland Poland 1-1 Moldova Albania 2-0 Poland Moldova 3-2 Poland I don't think the upset would be that huge. Can Estonia sneak a 0-0 and win on pens? I'd give them a 20-25% chance |
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Post by winsumluzsum on Nov 22, 2023 19:49:19 GMT
12 points is what we deserved from the group. We should have got 3 last night but none away to Croatia and Armenia.
However, Turkiye can consider themselves somewhat fortunate to have topped the group. In their 3-2 win over Latvia away the Latvians equalised in thd 4th minute of injury time with 10 men, only for Turkiye to get the winner in the 6th minute over time.
In the apparently comfortable home win over Latvia they only took the lead well into the second half, but Latvia had two great chances to equalise, the second hitting the underside of the bar in the 77th minute. 3 late goals gave Turkiye a flattering win.
Then of course they benefitted from a first half red card against us, as well as the appalling decisions last night. (By the way I don't think we can complain too much about their pen as Davies does deliver a foolish shove). Also Croatia gifted them their goal in their victory away.
Fine margins indeed.
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Post by iot on Nov 22, 2023 20:35:14 GMT
12 points is what we deserved from the group. We should have got 3 last night but none away to Croatia and Armenia. However, Turkiye can consider themselves somewhat fortunate to have topped the group. In their 3-2 win over Latvia away the Latvians equalised in thd 4th minute of injury time with 10 men, only for Turkiye to get the winner in the 6th minute over time. In the apparently comfortable home win over Latvia they only took the lead well into the second half, but Latvia had two great chances to equalise, the second hitting the underside of the bar in the 77th minute. 3 late goals gave Turkiye a flattering win. Then of course they benefitted from a first half red card against us, as well as the appalling decisions last night. (By the way I don't think we can complain too much about their pen as Davies does deliver a foolish shove). Also Croatia gifted them their goal in their victory away. Fine margins indeed. Disagree slightly with this. I agree we didn't deserve the point in Croatia (although people do sometimes forget that they only managed about 3 good chances to the one we created). But equally, the home game against Armenia was fairly equal in terms of chances - they just took their ruthlessly. Also can't remember Armenia creating more opportunities than us on Saturday. So I think we just about had what we deserved going into the game last night, and deserved to beat them as you say |
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Post by allezlesrouges on Nov 22, 2023 21:24:41 GMT
Worth noting that the xG for the game last night was Cymru 1.03-1.19 Turkey, but penalties count for around 0.75 xG, so discounting that the xG was more like 1.03-0.44 which highlights how good our defensive performance was against the group winners
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Post by winsumluzsum on Nov 22, 2023 22:33:25 GMT
Worth noting that the xG for the game last night was Cymru 1.03-1.19 Turkey, but penalties count for around 0.75 xG, so discounting that the xG was more like 1.03-0.44 which highlights how good our defensive performance was against the group winners So, had we been given the 3 pens the xG would have been 3.28 - 1.19. 3 - 1 wouldn't have flattered us. The reality is we limited Turkiye to one half chance at the end of the first half, one excellent headed chance and a super individual effort from distance. Defensively, the 3-4-2-1 worked very well, as it did in the Euros. It's excellent at eliminating space in midfield, with the box formation giving a numerical overload against most formations. I hope to see us use it going forwards. In possession 3-4-2-1 also helps to build between the thirds. We created 5 decent chances against a quality team. |
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Post by morg on Nov 23, 2023 5:29:25 GMT
Aww... I got all excited then mun...
Thought I was about to read about some 6'5" 17 yr old goalkeeper called Fine Rhys Margins who'd already established himself in the Honved U21s. Mam from Abersoch and able to say Llanfairpwll... since the age of 5.
As you were ....
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Post by allezlesrouges on Nov 23, 2023 12:55:14 GMT
Worth noting that the xG for the game last night was Cymru 1.03-1.19 Turkey, but penalties count for around 0.75 xG, so discounting that the xG was more like 1.03-0.44 which highlights how good our defensive performance was against the group winners So, had we been given the 3 pens the xG would have been 3.28 - 1.19. 3 - 1 wouldn't have flattered us. The reality is we limited Turkiye to one half chance at the end of the first half, one excellent headed chance and a super individual effort from distance. Defensively, the 3-4-2-1 worked very well, as it did in the Euros. It's excellent at eliminating space in midfield, with the box formation giving a numerical overload against most formations. I hope to see us use it going forwards. In possession 3-4-2-1 also helps to build between the thirds. We created 5 decent chances against a quality team. Yeah exactly, although 3 pens is obviously very rare! Agree at home we've got that formation nailed down and it works. Away from home I'm not sure it's always the best formation, in some respects I think that 4-2-3-1 might be better versus certain teams |
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Post by jimexotic on Nov 25, 2023 13:08:52 GMT
Haaland looks like he was injured
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Post by winsumluzsum on Nov 25, 2023 17:42:58 GMT
So, had we been given the 3 pens the xG would have been 3.28 - 1.19. 3 - 1 wouldn't have flattered us. The reality is we limited Turkiye to one half chance at the end of the first half, one excellent headed chance and a super individual effort from distance. Defensively, the 3-4-2-1 worked very well, as it did in the Euros. It's excellent at eliminating space in midfield, with the box formation giving a numerical overload against most formations. I hope to see us use it going forwards. In possession 3-4-2-1 also helps to build between the thirds. We created 5 decent chances against a quality team. Yeah exactly, although 3 pens is obviously very rare! Agree at home we've got that formation nailed down and it works. Away from home I'm not sure it's always the best formation, in some respects I think that 4-2-3-1 might be better versus certain teams Why is it not best away from home? If anything it's better for away games, seeing as it's a very defensively compact formation. It's more limited going forwards as it's very dependent on the wingbacks for width. But in Neco we at least have the ideal player on one side at least. As a plan B when we need a goal I think 4-1-4-1 could work well, as both Ampadu and James could fo a good job anchoring the midfield. |
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Post by allezlesrouges on Nov 26, 2023 15:46:14 GMT
Yeah exactly, although 3 pens is obviously very rare! Agree at home we've got that formation nailed down and it works. Away from home I'm not sure it's always the best formation, in some respects I think that 4-2-3-1 might be better versus certain teams Why is it not best away from home? If anything it's better for away games, seeing as it's a very defensively compact formation. It's more limited going forwards as it's very dependent on the wingbacks for width. But in Neco we at least have the ideal player on one side at least. As a plan B when we need a goal I think 4-1-4-1 could work well, as both Ampadu and James could fo a good job anchoring the midfield. Because the formation falls apart and invites pressure when a team pins us (and our wingbacks) back in our third. Armenia have done it to us, Iran & the USA also did it. To an extent Ukraine did it too. But it's more likely to happen away from home where we're more likely to be under pressure & perhaps on a dodgy pitch or something The real strength of the formation when we play at home on a nice wide flat pitch is that we can find out-balls in the channels and that gets us up the pitch, preventing teams from pinning us ack as Armenia did I'd like to see 4-2-3-1 tested away from home as I think we'd get up the pitch more easily, and would regularly be able to keep Moore central and get crosses in towards him |
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Post by winsumluzsum on Nov 26, 2023 16:55:32 GMT
We haven't played the 3-4-2-1 formation under Page before the recent Turkiye game. Not all wing back formations are the same! In fact the 3-4-2-1 is very strong in the middle of the park, with Turkiye having very little joy centrally.
You also forget how few goals we conceded in the Euro16 campaign on the back of this formation. It's a cautious approach, but that's appropriate away from home. For me this should be the default, but with attacking, 4 at the back, plan B setups, and the 4-1-4-1 fits the bill in that regard.
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A desperate recall for Joe Allen would be in order methinks.
