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Post by insertname on Sept 8, 2020 0:20:20 GMT
That's some poor logic there. Of course you can, but you're more likely to get an easier group the higher the pot you're in. Ergo, breaking into the top pot would be cause for celebration. That's undisputable You fiddled to get a top world ranking before by not doing friendlies and it didn't help.
Getting to a tournament is more important than a ranking.
A ranking helps you get to a tournament. We did the right thing by aiming for pot one, it was just typical Welsh luck that saw us drawn in a group of death. If you want to know how powerful being a top seed can be look at England’s draws, when was the last time they had the best second seed? They haven’t had a group of death since they failed to qualify for Euro 2008. I’m confident we would have romped England’s group for the Russia World Cup qualifiers. |
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Post by oscardelta on Sept 8, 2020 1:58:10 GMT
You fiddled to get a top world ranking before by not doing friendlies and it didn't help.
Getting to a tournament is more important than a ranking.
Yeah but the odds were that it was going to help - just because it didn't doesn't mean it's not a desirable or rewarding thing to do. Logic 101 really, you can't argue against it Obviously getting to a tournament is more important than ranking, but by getting a higher ranking it makes the odds better of getting to a tournament, so in a round about way you've ended up arguing against your own point there A ranking based on past results does not forecast future results or performances. |
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Post by oscardelta on Sept 8, 2020 2:10:56 GMT
You fiddled to get a top world ranking before by not doing friendlies and it didn't help.
Getting to a tournament is more important than a ranking.
A ranking helps you get to a tournament. We did the right thing by aiming for pot one, it was just typical Welsh luck that saw us drawn in a group of death. If you want to know how powerful being a top seed can be look at England’s draws, when was the last time they had the best second seed? They haven’t had a group of death since they failed to qualify for Euro 2008. I’m confident we would have romped England’s group for the Russia World Cup qualifiers. You really need to go back and read the stuff on here about WC2018 qualifying group. The "well we were semi finalists at Euro16 so therefore we are dead cert guaranteed to be going to WC2018" was auto assummed before a game started.
Despite my loathing of England, I give them the credit in qualifying tournament after qualifying tournament that they do the business. It doesn't matter who it is they are up against, they go and do it.
It is just their performance when they get there leaves something to be desired............... and yeah I rejoice when they go out.
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Post by allezlesrouges on Sept 8, 2020 7:41:33 GMT
Yeah but the odds were that it was going to help - just because it didn't doesn't mean it's not a desirable or rewarding thing to do. Logic 101 really, you can't argue against it Obviously getting to a tournament is more important than ranking, but by getting a higher ranking it makes the odds better of getting to a tournament, so in a round about way you've ended up arguing against your own point there A ranking based on past results does not forecast future results or performances. Nothing forecasts future results. But a higher ranking increases the % likelihood that you'll perform well enough to qualify. People were right to be excited in 2018 as statistically it was our best ever chance of qualifying. However, anyone that said we were dead certs to qualify after the draw was obviously not thinking about it right |
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Post by erasedcitizen on Sept 8, 2020 7:51:07 GMT
A ranking helps you get to a tournament. We did the right thing by aiming for pot one, it was just typical Welsh luck that saw us drawn in a group of death. If you want to know how powerful being a top seed can be look at England’s draws, when was the last time they had the best second seed? They haven’t had a group of death since they failed to qualify for Euro 2008. I’m confident we would have romped England’s group for the Russia World Cup qualifiers. You really need to go back and read the stuff on here about WC2018 qualifying group. The "well we were semi finalists at Euro16 so therefore we are dead cert guaranteed to be going to WC2018" was auto assummed before a game started.
Despite my loathing of England, I give them the credit in qualifying tournament after qualifying tournament that they do the business. It doesn't matter who it is they are up against, they go and do it.
It is just their performance when they get there leaves something to be desired............... and yeah I rejoice when they go out.
I cannot remember anyone having us down as 'dead certs' to qualify. A lot of people rightly assumed that we should be top 2 in that group given we were top seeds and it was a very poor outcome for ourselves. There is no way we should have finished below you in that group given how stronger of a side we were on paper but we did, with poor home performances against yourselves and Georgia (the latter of whom should have beaten us). I have seen a large proportion of Irish fans calling friendlies 'pointless', so why do you insist that by not playing friendlies we were fiddling the rankings in a way that did not benefit us? Maybe Coleman just didn't see the point in them? The friendly we played against Trinidad was possibly the most pointless match in football I have ever witnessed, soon to be overtaken by that stupid friendly in October with England. |
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Post by TheWelshWay on Sept 8, 2020 8:18:36 GMT
That's some poor logic there. Of course you can, but you're more likely to get an easier group the higher the pot you're in. Ergo, breaking into the top pot would be cause for celebration. That's undisputable You fiddled to get a top world ranking before by not doing friendlies and it didn't help.
Getting to a tournament is more important than a ranking.
Getting to the top ranking by 'fiddling' the system (i.e. doing something totally legitimate) has meant that we were in a better position for future draws (Nations League & Euro 2020 Q) and given us a better platform to qualify in the future (Regardless of what happened in WC QF). So it did help.
Look at Iceland, they had a few good qualifiers and have been in League A since, giving them good chances of getting play-off places for Euros and WCs to come.
Irish seem to be a bit bitter in regards Wales sicne we did well in the Euros and the YBIG forum is full of comments like this when it come to Wales and suggests we have an over inflated opinion of ourselves. I don't believe we're that much better than RoI, but the fans i met in Dublin after the 1-0 in 2018 really thought they deserved to win as we didnt have Bale or Rambo.
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Post by conwy10 on Sept 8, 2020 9:06:33 GMT
Yeah but the odds were that it was going to help - just because it didn't doesn't mean it's not a desirable or rewarding thing to do. Logic 101 really, you can't argue against it Obviously getting to a tournament is more important than ranking, but by getting a higher ranking it makes the odds better of getting to a tournament, so in a round about way you've ended up arguing against your own point there A ranking based on past results does not forecast future results or performances. You can only judge a horse on the races it’s run. I think the ranking system is as good as they can get it. We took advantage of clearly defined rules and others didn’t, more their fault than ours. Didn’t Faroe Islands cancel a friendly to replace us in Pot 4 relegating us to Pot 5 a few years back? In theory if we get top spot it’s undeniable it will be easier. If we replace Germany in Pot 1 and draw Slovakia in Pot 2 amazing! If we replace Germany and then by coincidence draw Germany we’re no better off. Luck of the draw. |
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Post by eppingblue1 on Sept 8, 2020 9:19:51 GMT
A ranking based on past results does not forecast future results or performances. You can only judge a horse on the races it’s run. I think the ranking system is as good as they can get it. We took advantage of clearly defined rules and others didn’t, more their fault than ours. Didn’t Faroe Islands cancel a friendly to replace us in Pot 4 relegating us to Pot 5 a few years back? In theory if we get top spot it’s undeniable it will be easier. If we replace Germany in Pot 1 and draw Slovakia in Pot 2 amazing! If we replace Germany and then by coincidence draw Germany we’re no better off. Luck of the draw. Of course being higher in the rankings improves your chances. We were given a golden opportunity in the 2018 qualifiers, we didn't take it. In todays European international football teams we probably won't get a better chance. A higher ranking improves your chances, if your UEFA ranking had been a bit higher you'd be home to Slovakia instead of away to them. |
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Post by iot on Sept 8, 2020 9:29:25 GMT
I can't believe we're even debating this, I don't get what's difficult to understand?
In Pot 1 you have Belgium, England, France, Spain, Portugal, Croatia, Italy, Germany, and Denmark.
In Pot 2 you have Switzerland, Sweden, us, Poland, Austria, Ukraine, Russia, Serbia, Norway and Slovakia.
If we end up in Pot 1, we play one from that second group (or if unlucky, the team we've substituted in Pot 1 - probably Denmark). If we end up in Pot 2, we're in with one of the first group of nations. Obviously, we're more likely to top a group containing one of the second lot than the first lot. It's that simple.
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Post by allezlesrouges on Sept 8, 2020 9:41:40 GMT
I can't believe we're even debating this, I don't get what's difficult to understand? In Pot 1 you have Belgium, England, France, Spain, Portugal, Croatia, Italy, Germany, and Denmark. In Pot 2 you have Switzerland, Sweden, us, Poland, Austria, Ukraine, Russia, Serbia, Norway and Slovakia. If we end up in Pot 1, we play one from that second group (or if unlucky, the team we've substituted in Pot 1 - probably Denmark). If we end up in Pot 2, we're in with one of the first group of nations. Obviously, we're more likely to top a group containing one of the second lot than the first lot. It's that simple. Exactly! It's literally inarguable - I don't know why anyone would try to argue that |
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Post by pendragon on Sept 8, 2020 10:04:33 GMT
I can't believe we're even debating this, I don't get what's difficult to understand? In Pot 1 you have Belgium, England, France, Spain, Portugal, Croatia, Italy, Germany, and Denmark. In Pot 2 you have Switzerland, Sweden, us, Poland, Austria, Ukraine, Russia, Serbia, Norway and Slovakia. If we end up in Pot 1, we play one from that second group (or if unlucky, the team we've substituted in Pot 1 - probably Denmark). If we end up in Pot 2, we're in with one of the first group of nations. Obviously, we're more likely to top a group containing one of the second lot than the first lot. It's that simple. I don't know why anyone would try to argue that It's possibly due to arguing for the sake of arguing. |
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Post by walesgolfmadrid on Sept 8, 2020 10:14:08 GMT
Yeah, it's a non starter of an argument.
We didn't qualify for the World Cup because we just weren't good enough, not because we were top seeds.
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Post by jackanapes on Sept 8, 2020 10:19:42 GMT
That was in no way a group of death. It was a soft group for any country with a Pot 1 seeding. None of the teams in the group were great. We were ahead and comfortable against Georgia and Serbia, failed to kill them off, and got bitten on the arse. We were a little unlucky with injuries during the campaign and we lacked strength in depth. It doesn't change the fact that a real Pot 1 team would have made mincemeat of that group.
This isn't a dig at you but it drives me mad how for decades fans and pundits welcome almost every draw with the 'group of death' mentality. We've had plenty of decent draws over the past 20 years - we just haven't taken advantage of it very often.
As for the Irish fella he can only be trolling. Pot one status, particularly for a World Cup draw (where you could end up with two big nations in your group and only one automatic spot) is a massive boost to your hopes for qualifying.
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Post by underwood on Sept 8, 2020 11:00:54 GMT
‘Group of Death’ is overstating it.
It was however a group of 4 evenly matched teams, more so than any other group & all the other top seeds may have made mincemeat of it, but that was never going to be the case with Wales, unless the pot 2, 3 & 4 teams were more favourable, which they weren’t.
Add Georgia to that, who were comfortably the toughest draw from their pot, given their ability & the fact that you have to fly 8 hours to play them & you have a genuinely competitive group.
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Post by iot on Sept 8, 2020 12:11:02 GMT
‘Group of Death’ is overstating it. It was however a group of 4 evenly matched teams, more so than any other group & all the other top seeds may have made mincemeat of it, but that was never going to be the case with Wales, unless the pot 2, 3 & 4 teams were more favourable, which they weren’t. Add Georgia to that, who were comfortably the toughest draw from their pot, given their ability & the fact that you have to fly 8 hours to play them & you have a genuinely competitive group. Agreed - it was a bad draw when you think about who we got in pot 3, 4 and 5 in particular. It could have been much easier, but that's not to excuse our poor performances. |
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Post by eppingblue1 on Sept 8, 2020 12:34:15 GMT
I think the slim chance we had of getting in pot 1 went with Switzerland drawing with Germany. We win all 6 games and the friendly with England and we add 35 - 40 or so points. Very difficult to see less than 10 nations getting lower than that would give us. The Swiss losing most, probably all their games was the main hope. There just isn't the points differential to amass or lose large numbers of points when the teams are so closely matched to start with. On the upside we may only get 5 points for beating the likes of Finland or Bulgaria but they count forever. So those wins don't only help the current tournament qualifying they'll be helping us qualify in 10 years time
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Post by iot on Sept 8, 2020 14:08:15 GMT
I think the slim chance we had of getting in pot 1 went with Switzerland drawing with Germany. We win all 6 games and the friendly with England and we add 35 - 40 or so points. Very difficult to see less than 10 nations getting lower than that would give us. The Swiss losing most, probably all their games was the main hope. There just isn't the points differential to amass or lose large numbers of points when the teams are so closely matched to start with. On the upside we may only get 5 points for beating the likes of Finland or Bulgaria but they count forever. So those wins don't only help the current tournament qualifying they'll be helping us qualify in 10 years time Actually I think oscardelta's onto something, getting into Pot 1 won't make a difference now I think about it  |
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Post by gogdownsouth on Sept 9, 2020 13:50:19 GMT
If We Global Football are correct on Twitter then this is what has to happen for us to be Pot 1;
1. We win all 4 Nations League games
2. Switzerland must lose 5 of it's 6 games including friendlies and can draw 1.
3. Denmark can beat the Faroe Islands in a friendly, draw one of their Nations League fixtures and lose the other 4.
All 3 must happen, so we will be Pot 2 for the qualifiers as we can't drop to Pot 3.
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Post by pendragon on Sept 9, 2020 14:05:10 GMT
So, a team such as Iceland could lose all their remaining NL games and still remain in pot 1? 😕
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Post by insertname on Sept 9, 2020 14:06:57 GMT
A ranking helps you get to a tournament. We did the right thing by aiming for pot one, it was just typical Welsh luck that saw us drawn in a group of death. If you want to know how powerful being a top seed can be look at England’s draws, when was the last time they had the best second seed? They haven’t had a group of death since they failed to qualify for Euro 2008. I’m confident we would have romped England’s group for the Russia World Cup qualifiers. You really need to go back and read the stuff on here about WC2018 qualifying group. The "well we were semi finalists at Euro16 so therefore we are dead cert guaranteed to be going to WC2018" was auto assummed before a game started.
Despite my loathing of England, I give them the credit in qualifying tournament after qualifying tournament that they do the business. It doesn't matter who it is they are up against, they go and do it.
It is just their performance when they get there leaves something to be desired............... and yeah I rejoice when they go out.
I wasn’t one of them! We had the worst seed from each pot, perhaps not in your case on paper but the local rivalry element helped to make it a dog’s dinner in theory and then your great start just compounded it. And yeah England do the business in every qualifying but like I said when was the last time they had a qualifying opponent of any note? Their WC group contained Slovakia Scotland and the Czechs if memory serves- total dog shit. They never seem to pull an impressive second seed and they have reaped the rewards as a result. The one time we got into pot one....... |
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Post by allezlesrouges on Sept 9, 2020 14:07:33 GMT
If We Global Football are correct on Twitter then this is what has to happen for us to be Pot 1; 1. We win all 4 Nations League games 2. Switzerland must lose 5 of it's 6 games including friendlies and can draw 1. 3. Denmark can beat the Faroe Islands in a friendly, draw one of their Nations League fixtures and lose the other 4. All 3 must happen, so we will be Pot 2 for the qualifiers as we can't drop to Pot 3. Fair enough, obviously I think we should go all out to try and win all our games until Pot 1 becomes and impossibility. But sounds like it’s not worth pinning too much hope on getting pot 1 based on that. Here’s hoping that in the draw we get a Denmark type team as one of the top seeds! |
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Post by insertname on Sept 9, 2020 14:08:33 GMT
So, a team such as Iceland could lose all their remaining NL games and still remain in pot 1? 😕 That sounds good to me if we were to draw Iceland as the top seed. |
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Post by allezlesrouges on Sept 9, 2020 14:08:34 GMT
So, a team such as Iceland could lose all their remaining NL games and still remain in pot 1? 😕 I don’t think Iceland are in Pot 1 - they’re in 2 with us I believe |
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Post by allezlesrouges on Sept 9, 2020 14:09:25 GMT
Judging by this Denmark seems the most likely team to catch. Could probably do with the Sais beating them tomorrow. I stand corrected - Iceland are in Pot 3! Check page 26 for the attached image with the pots as they stand |
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Post by insertname on Sept 9, 2020 14:15:58 GMT
That was in no way a group of death. It was a soft group for any country with a Pot 1 seeding. None of the teams in the group were great. We were ahead and comfortable against Georgia and Serbia, failed to kill them off, and got bitten on the arse. We were a little unlucky with injuries during the campaign and we lacked strength in depth. It doesn't change the fact that a real Pot 1 team would have made mincemeat of that group. This isn't a dig at you but it drives me mad how for decades fans and pundits welcome almost every draw with the 'group of death' mentality. We've had plenty of decent draws over the past 20 years - we just haven't taken advantage of it very often. As for the Irish fella he can only be trolling. Pot one status, particularly for a World Cup draw (where you could end up with two big nations in your group and only one automatic spot) is a massive boost to your hopes for qualifying. I’d need to go and look at the draw again but isn’t it the case on paper at least that Austria and Serbia were (at that time) the toughest team from their pots? It seemed to me that in various ways we drew the worst teams imaginable. Germany or France would have found such a group easy but I reckon England might have dropped a bollock or two- especially given how easy their groups routinely are. That group was above the usual standard they encounter. |
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Post by fiveattheback on Sept 9, 2020 14:22:18 GMT
That was in no way a group of death. It was a soft group for any country with a Pot 1 seeding. None of the teams in the group were great. We were ahead and comfortable against Georgia and Serbia, failed to kill them off, and got bitten on the arse. We were a little unlucky with injuries during the campaign and we lacked strength in depth. It doesn't change the fact that a real Pot 1 team would have made mincemeat of that group. This isn't a dig at you but it drives me mad how for decades fans and pundits welcome almost every draw with the 'group of death' mentality. We've had plenty of decent draws over the past 20 years - we just haven't taken advantage of it very often. As for the Irish fella he can only be trolling. Pot one status, particularly for a World Cup draw (where you could end up with two big nations in your group and only one automatic spot) is a massive boost to your hopes for qualifying. I’d need to go and look at the draw again but isn’t it the case on paper at least that Austria and Serbia were (at that time) the toughest team from their pots? It seemed to me that in various ways we drew the worst teams imaginable. Germany or France would have found such a group easy but I reckon England might have dropped a bollock or two- especially given how easy their groups routinely are. That group was above the usual standard they encounter. France and Italy were both in pot 2, Austria probably third best but there were no easy draws in pot 2. Slovakia, Bosnia and Czechia the weaker sides Serbia were, in terms of seeding, quite far down pot 3 but probably one of the best in there, Ireland were the best team in pot 4 and Georgia easily the best in pot 6 We didn't necessarily draw the best teams in each pot, but put together it was probably one of the toughest |
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Post by gogdownsouth on Sept 9, 2020 14:42:52 GMT
If We Global Football are correct on Twitter then this is what has to happen for us to be Pot 1; 1. We win all 4 Nations League games 2. Switzerland must lose 5 of it's 6 games including friendlies and can draw 1. 3. Denmark can beat the Faroe Islands in a friendly, draw one of their Nations League fixtures and lose the other 4. All 3 must happen, so we will be Pot 2 for the qualifiers as we can't drop to Pot 3. Fair enough, obviously I think we should go all out to try and win all our games until Pot 1 becomes and impossibility. But sounds like it’s not worth pinning too much hope on getting pot 1 based on that. Here’s hoping that in the draw we get a Denmark type team as one of the top seeds! Important thing is securing top spot for a potential play off and also the extra prize money. An additional 1 million euros for winning the group on top of the 1 million euros for appearance. |
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Post by allezlesrouges on Sept 9, 2020 15:06:06 GMT
Fair enough, obviously I think we should go all out to try and win all our games until Pot 1 becomes and impossibility. But sounds like it’s not worth pinning too much hope on getting pot 1 based on that. Here’s hoping that in the draw we get a Denmark type team as one of the top seeds! Important thing is securing top spot for a potential play off and also the extra prize money. An additional 1 million euros for winning the group on top of the 1 million euros for appearance. And promotion I suppose! Gives us a shot at trying to win the Nations League, experience at the top level of international football for our young team, and seems like if you can stay in Pot 1 there’s less chance of dropping down the rankings if you don’t lose every game |
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Post by gogdownsouth on Sept 9, 2020 15:16:19 GMT
Important thing is securing top spot for a potential play off and also the extra prize money. An additional 1 million euros for winning the group on top of the 1 million euros for appearance. And promotion I suppose! Gives us a shot at trying to win the Nations League, experience at the top level of international football for our young team, and seems like if you can stay in Pot 1 there’s less chance of dropping down the rankings if you don’t lose every game Very true! Also hopefully if we achieve promotion crowds will be allowed in for the next Nations League and I'm sure that would guarantee us near/full capacity if the likes of France, Italy, Spain, Germany and the saes are coming to town |
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Post by pendragon on Sept 9, 2020 15:25:51 GMT
Important thing is securing top spot for a potential play off and also the extra prize money. An additional 1 million euros for winning the group on top of the 1 million euros for appearance. And promotion I suppose! Gives us a shot at trying to win the Nations League, experience at the top level of international football for our young team, and seems like if you can stay in Pot 1 there’s less chance of dropping down the rankings if you don’t lose every game I take it that if we fluff our chances in our WCQ group, we are guaranteed a play-off spot for the WC PROVIDED we win our NL group this year? Is it the case that we will face other League B teams in a play-off? I can't imagine there will be many/ if any League B teams who qualify automatically. |
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