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Post by TheWelshWay on Sept 9, 2020 15:36:03 GMT
Fair enough, obviously I think we should go all out to try and win all our games until Pot 1 becomes and impossibility. But sounds like it’s not worth pinning too much hope on getting pot 1 based on that. Here’s hoping that in the draw we get a Denmark type team as one of the top seeds! Important thing is securing top spot for a potential play off and also the extra prize money. An additional 1 million euros for winning the group on top of the 1 million euros for appearance. How does the prize money work, sure last time there was a win bonus as well? |
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Post by allezlesrouges on Sept 9, 2020 15:45:07 GMT
And promotion I suppose! Gives us a shot at trying to win the Nations League, experience at the top level of international football for our young team, and seems like if you can stay in Pot 1 there’s less chance of dropping down the rankings if you don’t lose every game I take it that if we fluff our chances in our WCQ group, we are guaranteed a play-off spot for the WC PROVIDED we win our NL group this year? Is it the case that we will face other League B teams in a play-off? I can't imagine there will be many/ if any League B teams who qualify automatically. It’s hard to say for certain - we’re definitely not 100% guaranteed. But I’m pretty sure we would very very likely get a playoff bar a set of really weird results. I think the more comfortably we win the group the better as well, as these things seem to be based on ranking quite a lot - I.e who performed the best out of all the Group B winners. |
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Post by pendragon on Sept 9, 2020 15:51:12 GMT
I take it that if we fluff our chances in our WCQ group, we are guaranteed a play-off spot for the WC PROVIDED we win our NL group this year? Is it the case that we will face other League B teams in a play-off? I can't imagine there will be many/ if any League B teams who qualify automatically. It’s hard to say for certain - we’re definitely not 100% guaranteed. But I’m pretty sure we would very very likely get a playoff bar a set of really weird results. I think the more comfortably we win the group the better as well, as these things seem to be based on ranking quite a lot - I.e who performed the best out of all the Group B winners. So I have just read up on this and if I have understood correctly, the top 10 runners-up in the WC qualifying groups enter into the play-off system along with the top 2 NL teams who finished outside the top 2 in their WCQ groups... 🤦♀️ I think it's 12 teams in the play-offs, 4 paths and 3 eventual winners. |
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Post by walesgolfmadrid on Sept 9, 2020 16:15:11 GMT
It’s hard to say for certain - we’re definitely not 100% guaranteed. But I’m pretty sure we would very very likely get a playoff bar a set of really weird results. I think the more comfortably we win the group the better as well, as these things seem to be based on ranking quite a lot - I.e who performed the best out of all the Group B winners. So I have just read up on this and if I have understood correctly, the top 10 runners-up in the WC qualifying groups enter into the play-off system along with the top 2 NL teams who finished outside the top 2 in their WCQ groups... 🤦♀️ I think it's 12 teams in the play-offs, 4 paths and 3 eventual winners. 3 paths of 4 teams in the play-offs, 3 winners. |
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Post by pendragon on Sept 9, 2020 16:27:41 GMT
So I have just read up on this and if I have understood correctly, the top 10 runners-up in the WC qualifying groups enter into the play-off system along with the top 2 NL teams who finished outside the top 2 in their WCQ groups... 🤦♀️ I think it's 12 teams in the play-offs, 4 paths and 3 eventual winners. 3 paths of 4 teams in the play-offs, 3 winners. Maths has never been my strong point 😕🤦♀️😂 |
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Post by insertname on Sept 9, 2020 18:09:41 GMT
I’d need to go and look at the draw again but isn’t it the case on paper at least that Austria and Serbia were (at that time) the toughest team from their pots? It seemed to me that in various ways we drew the worst teams imaginable. Germany or France would have found such a group easy but I reckon England might have dropped a bollock or two- especially given how easy their groups routinely are. That group was above the usual standard they encounter. France and Italy were both in pot 2, Austria probably third best but there were no easy draws in pot 2. Slovakia, Bosnia and Czechia the weaker sides Serbia were, in terms of seeding, quite far down pot 3 but probably one of the best in there, Ireland were the best team in pot 4 and Georgia easily the best in pot 6 We didn't necessarily draw the best teams in each pot, but put together it was probably one of the toughest Ah thanks, I couldn’t face doing the research! I guess that’s the oddity of the draw isn’t it? Teams on paper that perhaps are not where they should be or temporarily in bad form yet were on point when the qualifiers rolled around. Even the last seed, Georgia were competitive and as it turned out got perhaps the crucial result of the campaign when they took a draw off us. I forgot that France (eventual winners) were from pot 2! It still doesn’t change my outlook though- there is no better place to be than pot one. We just had a nightmare of draw :/ |
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Post by insertname on Sept 9, 2020 18:14:47 GMT
I take it that if we fluff our chances in our WCQ group, we are guaranteed a play-off spot for the WC PROVIDED we win our NL group this year? Is it the case that we will face other League B teams in a play-off? I can't imagine there will be many/ if any League B teams who qualify automatically. It’s hard to say for certain - we’re definitely not 100% guaranteed. But I’m pretty sure we would very very likely get a playoff bar a set of really weird results. I think the more comfortably we win the group the better as well, as these things seem to be based on ranking quite a lot - I.e who performed the best out of all the Group B winners. I thought the commentator during the Bulgaria game said that winning your NL group *definitely* gave you the option of the play off depending on whether you qualified from the proper group? I don’t think it matters for us. I’m convinced we will qualify for this World Cup whether we want to or not. So Wales first WC in the modern era is played in a desert with alcohol prohibition during British winter. Great. |
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Post by pendragon on Sept 9, 2020 18:15:19 GMT
France and Italy were both in pot 2, Austria probably third best but there were no easy draws in pot 2. Slovakia, Bosnia and Czechia the weaker sides Serbia were, in terms of seeding, quite far down pot 3 but probably one of the best in there, Ireland were the best team in pot 4 and Georgia easily the best in pot 6 We didn't necessarily draw the best teams in each pot, but put together it was probably one of the toughest Ah thanks, I couldn’t face doing the research! I guess that’s the oddity of the draw isn’t it? Teams on paper that perhaps are not where they should be or temporarily in bad form yet were on point when the qualifiers rolled around. Even the last seed, Georgia were competitive and as it turned out got perhaps the crucial result of the campaign when they took a draw off us. I forgot that France (eventual winners) were from pot 2! It still doesn’t change my outlook though- there is no better place to be than pot one. We just had a nightmare of draw :/ I hate to say it but I also feel that we vastly underestimated the teams in that draw and maybe didn't initially give them the respect that they deserved or take the campaign seriously enough. |
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Post by TheWelshWay on Sept 10, 2020 9:04:33 GMT
So I have just read up on this and if I have understood correctly, the top 10 runners-up in the WC qualifying groups enter into the play-off system along with the top 2 NL teams who finished outside the top 2 in their WCQ groups... 🤦♀️ I think it's 12 teams in the play-offs, 4 paths and 3 eventual winners. 3 paths of 4 teams in the play-offs, 3 winners. Am I right in saying that the play offs will be a one leg game? If so, is the seeding based on FIFA rankings or Nations league? |
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Post by TheWelshWay on Sept 10, 2020 9:06:23 GMT
It’s hard to say for certain - we’re definitely not 100% guaranteed. But I’m pretty sure we would very very likely get a playoff bar a set of really weird results. I think the more comfortably we win the group the better as well, as these things seem to be based on ranking quite a lot - I.e who performed the best out of all the Group B winners. I thought the commentator during the Bulgaria game said that winning your NL group *definitely* gave you the option of the play off depending on whether you qualified from the proper group? I don’t think it matters for us. I’m convinced we will qualify for this World Cup whether we want to or not. So Wales first WC in the modern era is played in a desert with alcohol prohibition during British winter. Great. That was the case for the EUROs but not WC. That said, if we win our group we would almost certainly get a play off unless there are some crazy results. |
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Post by gogdownsouth on Sept 10, 2020 9:14:07 GMT
Important thing is securing top spot for a potential play off and also the extra prize money. An additional 1 million euros for winning the group on top of the 1 million euros for appearance. How does the prize money work, sure last time there was a win bonus as well? Just done some research and the appearance money for this years tournament is 1.5 million Euros with the group winner receiving a further 1.5 million Euros. Can't find anything to indicate there is a win bonus, promotion would guarantee us a minimum of 2.25 million Euros next Nations League as long as the prize money isn't decreased. |
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Post by pendragon on Sept 10, 2020 10:09:57 GMT
It’s hard to say for certain - we’re definitely not 100% guaranteed. But I’m pretty sure we would very very likely get a playoff bar a set of really weird results. I think the more comfortably we win the group the better as well, as these things seem to be based on ranking quite a lot - I.e who performed the best out of all the Group B winners. I thought the commentator during the Bulgaria game said that winning your NL group *definitely* gave you the option of the play off depending on whether you qualified from the proper group? I don’t think it matters for us. I’m convinced we will qualify for this World Cup whether we want to or not. So Wales first WC in the modern era is played in a desert with alcohol prohibition during British winter. Great. If we keep on going like we are, I am quietly confident that we will have a very good prospect of qualifying, even if we have to do it through the play-offs. We are currently one of the top teams in pot 2, and likely, three teams from pot 2 will qualify via the play-offs if we assume that all top seeds will qualify directly. It's not a foregone conclusion of course and we will have to work very hard, but it is certainly achievable and I think we are in a strong position to do it (hopefully even more so by 2022). As an aside, I am confident that Qatar will relax some of their alcohol restrictions and on the upside, we might not have to deal with the "bottle brigades" 😁 |
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Post by walesgolfmadrid on Sept 10, 2020 10:49:35 GMT
3 paths of 4 teams in the play-offs, 3 winners. Am I right in saying that the play offs will be a one leg game? If so, is the seeding based on FIFA rankings or Nations league? Yes, there'll be a one-legged semi-final and one-legged final. The home side in each will be randomly drawn. If they are to remain one-legged (and I think they will, so that they don't add more games to the international calender), in future they should consider having it at a neutral venue. I think home advantage in a one legged tie between similarly matched nations is too big of an advantage to put down to the luck of a draw, when World Cup qualification is on the line. |
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Post by eppingblue1 on Sept 17, 2020 8:09:47 GMT
New rankings out later today. Be interesting to see how this new system works. Looking like its going to be a gradual creep upwards and not the wild jumps that a couple of wins brought under the old system.
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Post by allezlesrouges on Sept 17, 2020 8:53:30 GMT
New rankings out later today. Be interesting to see how this new system works. Looking like its going to be a gradual creep upwards and not the wild jumps that a couple of wins brought under the old system. What is the new system? |
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Post by allezlesrouges on Sept 17, 2020 9:09:49 GMT
We're up 2 places to 21st overtaking Peru & USA. Poland & Senegal are the two teams ahead of us and are only 19 & 15 ranking points ahead of us respectively. Probably means if we sweep our group & Poland continue to struggle in League A that we could crack the top 20 again by Nov/Dec
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Post by underwood on Sept 17, 2020 11:05:26 GMT
Interesting that inside the top 30, ourselves & Portugal were the joint best European movers. It certainly looks like the new system will provide a more gradual reflection of movement.
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Post by eppingblue1 on Sept 17, 2020 11:33:56 GMT
New rankings out later today. Be interesting to see how this new system works. Looking like its going to be a gradual creep upwards and not the wild jumps that a couple of wins brought under the old system. What is the new system? Relatively new. I think it transferred a couple of years ago but its only now that its getting interesting as it aand ffects the world cup draw. If we do well from here on in then we'll almost certainly get above Poland, Sweden and Denmark who all have difficult league A fixtures. 50 point swing needed to get above Switzerland, bearing in mind the last 2 wins gave us a grand total of 10 points its probably too far. Could be tight though. Their next 5 games are Spain home and away in the nations league, Germany away in the nations league, home friendly with Croatia and away friendly with Belgium. Could easily go 20 points down before their last counting fixture at home to Ukraine in the nations league. We win all or all but England and it'll be tight. |
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Post by pendragon on Sept 17, 2020 11:51:39 GMT
What we should also factor in here is that some of these big teams will be resting key players in-between crucial games
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Post by manulike on Oct 22, 2020 14:42:04 GMT
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Post by TheWelshWay on Oct 22, 2020 15:42:20 GMT
Looking at our Euro 2020 group from WCQ group perspective it is probably middling (1x pot 1, 1x pot 2, 1x pot 3) easier than Euro 2020 group D&E&F anyway.
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Post by underwood on Oct 23, 2020 9:16:51 GMT
It is mad to think that we are only 6 places below a true superpower like Germany.
If we get promoted & pick up the odd win we’ll be comfortably inside the top 20 for a good while, which enhances qualification for forthcoming tournaments. We’ve come a long way.
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Post by allezlesrouges on Oct 23, 2020 10:08:49 GMT
It is mad to think that we are only 6 places below a true superpower like Germany. If we get promoted & pick up the odd win we’ll be comfortably inside the top 20 for a good while, which enhances qualification for forthcoming tournaments. We’ve come a long way. Yeah wouldn't avoiding relegation from League A essentially mean that over time we'd be pretty certain to be top seeds every time? |
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Post by underwood on Oct 23, 2020 11:18:34 GMT
Not really. Staying in League A, but not winning World Cup or Euro Qualifiers would see our ranking drop & ultimately our seeding.
However being in the top Nations League does almost certainly provide the Play-Off back up route to Finals.
Until the Nations League becomes the substitute for qualification of course, which I think is inevitable once the big clubs get their way as usual.
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Post by jackanapes on Oct 23, 2020 12:43:09 GMT
Not really. Staying in League A, but not winning World Cup or Euro Qualifiers would see our ranking drop & ultimately our seeding. However being in the top Nations League does almost certainly provide the Play-Off back up route to Finals. Until the Nations League becomes the substitute for qualification of course, which I think is inevitable once the big clubs get their way as usual. Surely being in League A would give us 'easier' draws and therefore make it more likely that we'd win a higher percentage of our qualifiers? Obviously having an easier draw doesn't guarantee results but it helps. Or am I missing something big? |
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Post by underwood on Oct 23, 2020 16:00:36 GMT
Not really. Staying in League A, but not winning World Cup or Euro Qualifiers would see our ranking drop & ultimately our seeding. However being in the top Nations League does almost certainly provide the Play-Off back up route to Finals. Until the Nations League becomes the substitute for qualification of course, which I think is inevitable once the big clubs get their way as usual. Surely being in League A would give us 'easier' draws and therefore make it more likely that we'd win a higher percentage of our qualifiers? Obviously having an easier draw doesn't guarantee results but it helps. Or am I missing something big? You are 100% correct, but this is Wales we are talking about & we will never blitz a group in the same way that the likes of Spain, France & dare I say it, England do. |
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Post by gimli on Apr 7, 2021 14:58:11 GMT
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Post by underwood on Apr 7, 2021 17:40:26 GMT
Italy, Switzerland & Turkey have all had big rises.... ah well, we’ll get more points when we beat them then.
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Post by conwy10 on Apr 7, 2021 18:38:57 GMT
I used to look at these religiously when we were struggling and when we were top 10. Is it bad I’ve lost interest now that we aren’t top 10? I kind of feel like I should care more than I do. Now I just like seeing where random countries are.
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Post by CrackityJones on Apr 7, 2021 18:56:07 GMT
We made Mexico drop out of the top ten, no wonder they were so fired up after going behind.
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