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Post by mrpicton79 on Oct 19, 2023 4:28:07 GMT
One thing that bugged me about the game is that Croatia's goal came from a corner after they'd nearly scored. However, the ball played through our defence in the build-up to that chance was clearly offside. Had they scored it would have been ruled out by VAR, but because they didn't they got a corner they shouldn't have, from which they scored. That's not right. Wait is this the same alarch who used to post regularly on here a while ago? Good to see you back if so  |
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Post by jbt95 on Oct 19, 2023 7:39:13 GMT
Yes, I noticed this during the game also and it wasn't even a marginal call, it was an easy offside. VAR could not interject as a goal had not been scored from the initial pass but it would have royally pissed me off if they had gone on get an equaliser. VAR was not in operation during the game. According to Nic Parry it was an FAW decision not to use VAR. I didn't know the individual FA's could make the decision. I don’t think that is right, I am pretty sure they have to have VAR, there’s no choice. |
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Post by melynwy on Oct 19, 2023 8:19:57 GMT
One thing that bugged me about the game is that Croatia's goal came from a corner after they'd nearly scored. However, the ball played through our defence in the build-up to that chance was clearly offside. Had they scored it would have been ruled out by VAR, but because they didn't they got a corner they shouldn't have, from which they scored. That's not right. Wait is this the same alarch who used to post regularly on here a while ago? Good to see you back if so Yes, very good to see you back! |
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Post by njdragon on Oct 19, 2023 10:13:37 GMT
And we beat latvia under page - what do you expect us to beat them with 9 men to prove a point. You can only beat what's in front of you yeh? The wales old would never have take 4 points off croatia, i think youre just hung up on that results as its your chance to prove page has failed and you won't give in that those 4 points against the tops seed are bloody brilliant. Give the man some credit. We won against croatia thats basically nullified the armenia result. If we finish second will you still moan we didnt finish first because of that result? come on its the best result we've had since belgium No if we finish 2nd I'd be delighted. If we finish 4th will you still be celebrating drawing and beating Croatia? its in our hands to qualify - how many times have we been in this position with 2 games to go? That on its own is a result and its a direct result of us taking the 4 points off the top seed. If we had beaten Armenia and lost against croatia (as expected twice) it would not be in our hands now. This failure to give page any credit is becoming tiresome - at the end of the match against croatia - a historic win i knew there would still be people moaning. Give him a break! |
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Post by conwy10 on Oct 19, 2023 10:20:40 GMT
No if we finish 2nd I'd be delighted. If we finish 4th will you still be celebrating drawing and beating Croatia? If we finish second, Croatia would have dropped points to Armenia and/or Latvia I'd love if Latvia could help us along a bit. |
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Post by conwy10 on Oct 19, 2023 10:35:00 GMT
No if we finish 2nd I'd be delighted. If we finish 4th will you still be celebrating drawing and beating Croatia? its in our hands to qualify - how many times have we been in this position with 2 games to go? That on its own is a result and its a direct result of us taking the 4 points off the top seed. If we had beaten Armenia and lost against croatia (as expected twice) it would not be in our hands now. This failure to give page any credit is becoming tiresome - at the end of the match against croatia - a historic win i knew there would still be people moaning. Give him a break! I'm happy for you that you're pleased with him. People are probably moaning because theres some labelling him a messiah based on one result. Have a look back at my posts, I said straight after the match I was delighted for him to get the win. But now people are talking about the system working, we're in the driving seat, we've turned a corner and I think I have to try to make a case for people to come back down to earth. We have 2 games left, probably need to win both, against the 2 teams we haven't beaten in this group. One has won the group, the other ripped us to pieces every time they came forward. |
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Post by melynwy on Oct 19, 2023 10:51:23 GMT
its in our hands to qualify - how many times have we been in this position with 2 games to go? That on its own is a result and its a direct result of us taking the 4 points off the top seed. If we had beaten Armenia and lost against croatia (as expected twice) it would not be in our hands now. This failure to give page any credit is becoming tiresome - at the end of the match against croatia - a historic win i knew there would still be people moaning. Give him a break! I'm happy for you that you're pleased with him. People are probably moaning because theres some labelling him a messiah based on one result. Have a look back at my posts, I said straight after the match I was delighted for him to get the win. But now people are talking about the system working, we're in the driving seat, we've turned a corner and I think I have to try to make a case for people to come back down to earth. We have 2 games left, probably need to win both, against the 2 teams we haven't beaten in this group. One has won the group, the other ripped us to pieces every time they came forward. That's not the argument. If you look at it purely from an expected results/points perspective, then the Armenia result has been cancelled out. We dropped 3 expected points against them, but gained 4 against Croatia. Going into the final two games with it all in our hands an all to play against the 3rd and 4th seeds for is a good situation to be in. If we don't do it it will be disappointing, but it won't be because of the Latvia result. In terms of points, we are about where we would hope to be. I dare say it's unlikely that the team and Page would have been as fired up for the Croatia game if it wasn't for the pressure following the Armenia result, so there's a very good chance we wouldn't have beaten Croatia had we not lost to Armenia. |
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Post by welshrover on Oct 19, 2023 11:55:56 GMT
its in our hands to qualify - how many times have we been in this position with 2 games to go? That on its own is a result and its a direct result of us taking the 4 points off the top seed. If we had beaten Armenia and lost against croatia (as expected twice) it would not be in our hands now. This failure to give page any credit is becoming tiresome - at the end of the match against croatia - a historic win i knew there would still be people moaning. Give him a break! I'm happy for you that you're pleased with him. People are probably moaning because theres some labelling him a messiah based on one result. Have a look back at my posts, I said straight after the match I was delighted for him to get the win. But now people are talking about the system working, we're in the driving seat, we've turned a corner and I think I have to try to make a case for people to come back down to earth. We have 2 games left, probably need to win both, against the 2 teams we haven't beaten in this group. One has won the group, the other ripped us to pieces every time they came forward. Turkey have not won the group. They can still finish second to Wales, either by the three teams on 16 points mini league or if Croatia drop points if we beat them by more than 2 goals. |
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Post by iantov on Oct 19, 2023 15:45:42 GMT
Yes, I noticed this during the game also and it wasn't even a marginal call, it was an easy offside. VAR could not interject as a goal had not been scored from the initial pass but it would have royally pissed me off if they had gone on get an equaliser. VAR was not in operation during the game. According to Nic Parry it was an FAW decision not to use VAR. I didn't know the individual FA's could make the decision. Ah! OK. |
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Post by jimexotic on Oct 20, 2023 8:30:53 GMT
This is still sinking in to be honest, I was talking about it in the pub with my mates last night and I said that just I couldn't believe that we'd managed to get that result when they'd just lost and we were expecting a retaliation, especially with who we had out. Pages decisions for this game get better every time I think about them, he clearly had a plan with what he had available and executed it brilliantly.
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Post by cymro on Oct 20, 2023 8:49:24 GMT
I watched the game back on S4C and there's a moment where the camera pans to a few kids about 8 or 9 who are so engrossed in the game and atmosphere and they belt out a massive roar just like we all did when Ward collected one of the many balls in the final minutes. That night was the moment those kids are hooked for life  lovely to see. |
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Post by morg on Oct 20, 2023 8:50:39 GMT
Croatia's next two games are going to be interesting. I was expecting a game like the one against Belgium in the WC qualifiers where we managed a ballsy one one against the better team. Don't think this was like that. We were better than Croatia and at times, far better. So, is that us or them? I do wonder as some have said that they've peaked in the last year, that their once imperious midfield is now not able to make up for the lack of speed at the back. We'll see.
What's clear though is that the difference between us now and at the start of the group, is night and day. Number of factors but I think the main one is the Ampadu/James axis. They were everywhere, read the play superbly and gave everyone else confidence. Again, as others have said, professional foul at the end strangely summed up the improvement.
I'm actually bizarrely confident about our November fixtures.
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Post by jimbo82 on Oct 20, 2023 9:33:44 GMT
Just in case anyone had any doubts about what a top quality team Croatia are, here are a selection of their results from the past 12 months:
9 December 2022 FIFA World Cup QF
Croatia 1–1 (a.e.t.) (4–2 p) Brazil (Won on pens)
17 December 2022 FIFA World Cup 3rd Place Playoff
Croatia 2–1 Morocco (Won)
25 March UEFA Euro 2024 qualifying
Croatia 1–1 Wales (Draw)
14 June 2022–23 UEFA Nations League Semi
Netherlands 2–4 (a.e.t.) Croatia (Won)
18 June2022–23 UEFA Nations League Final
Croatia 0–0 (a.e.t.) (4–5 p) Spain (Lost on pens)
15 October UEFA Euro 2024 qualifying
Wales 2–1 Croatia (Lost)
Obviously time is catching up with some of their golden generation, but they have been at the pointy end of 2 tournaments in the last year, which is more than can be said for some of the "bigger" nations like France, Germany, Italy, etc. And we've just taken 4 points off them in qualifying.
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Post by jbt95 on Oct 20, 2023 9:47:26 GMT
Just in case anyone had any doubts about what a top quality team Croatia are, here are a selection of their results from the past 12 months: 9 December 2022 FIFA World Cup QF Croatia 1–1 (a.e.t.) (4–2 p) Brazil (Won on pens)
17 December 2022 FIFA World Cup 3rd Place Playoff Croatia 2–1 Morocco (Won)
25 March UEFA Euro 2024 qualifying Croatia 1–1 Wales (Draw)14 June 2022–23 UEFA Nations League Semi Netherlands 2–4 (a.e.t.) Croatia (Won)18 June2022–23 UEFA Nations League Final Croatia 0–0 (a.e.t.) (4–5 p) Spain (Lost on pens)15 October UEFA Euro 2024 qualifying Wales 2–1 Croatia (Lost)Obviously time is catching up with some of their golden generation, but they have been at the pointy end of 2 tournaments in the last year, which is more than can be said for some of the "bigger" nations like France, Germany, Italy, etc. And we've just taken 4 points off them in qualifying. I had hoped they’d win the nations league. Would’ve been a fantastic thing for their country and the players themselves, coming from a small population. Those results show though they grind results out, look at the amount of AET. |
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Post by iot on Oct 20, 2023 11:01:27 GMT
Croatia's next two games are going to be interesting. I was expecting a game like the one against Belgium in the WC qualifiers where we managed a ballsy one one against the better team. Don't think this was like that. We were better than Croatia and at times, far better. So, is that us or them? I do wonder as some have said that they've peaked in the last year, that their once imperious midfield is now not able to make up for the lack of speed at the back. We'll see. What's clear though is that the difference between us now and at the start of the group, is night and day. Number of factors but I think the main one is the Ampadu/James axis. They were everywhere, read the play superbly and gave everyone else confidence. Again, as others have said, professional foul at the end strangely summed up the improvement. I'm actually bizarrely confident about our November fixtures. They haven't deteriorated that much since making the world cup semi finals less than a year ago. They're still a top 10 team when everyone's fit. But they were certainly well off it against us - primarily because of a few key injuries and some players were just well off it. It's the worst I've ever seen Gvardiol and Kovacic play, and they're obviously two fantastic players. Modric was very good, Brozovic too, so I do think they've still got the quality, particularly when a couple of key individuals such as Kramaric return. So I'd be very surprised if they don't pick up 6, but then again I never saw Sunday's result coming either! All of that is not to take any credit away from us - we produced a really high quality performance that we should be proud of. |
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Post by morg on Oct 20, 2023 11:15:23 GMT
Croatia's next two games are going to be interesting. I was expecting a game like the one against Belgium in the WC qualifiers where we managed a ballsy one one against the better team. Don't think this was like that. We were better than Croatia and at times, far better. So, is that us or them? I do wonder as some have said that they've peaked in the last year, that their once imperious midfield is now not able to make up for the lack of speed at the back. We'll see. What's clear though is that the difference between us now and at the start of the group, is night and day. Number of factors but I think the main one is the Ampadu/James axis. They were everywhere, read the play superbly and gave everyone else confidence. Again, as others have said, professional foul at the end strangely summed up the improvement. I'm actually bizarrely confident about our November fixtures. They haven't deteriorated that much since making the world cup semi finals less than a year ago. They're still a top 10 team when everyone's fit. But they were certainly well off it against us - primarily because of a few key injuries and some players were just well off it. It's the worst I've ever seen Gvardiol and Kovacic play, and they're obviously two fantastic players. Modric was very good, Brozovic too, so I do think they've still got the quality, particularly when a couple of key individuals such as Kramaric return. So I'd be very surprised if they don't pick up 6, but then again I never saw Sunday's result coming either! All of that is not to take any credit away from us - we produced a really high quality performance that we should be proud of. I hope they continue to thrive I really do. Have been impressed by them since the days of Davor Suker and co. As I say, next two games will be informative as to where they are. |
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Post by allezlesrouges on Oct 20, 2023 11:31:13 GMT
They were missing Perisic, Kramaric, Petkovic & Orsic, all of whom are upgrades on the players who started against us
Perisic is a long term injury, so they will defo be weaker in the wider areas than they usually would be in the next camp. If they get Kramaric back I think he will make a difference, he's a quality striker with 26 international goals. Even Petkovic would improve them, he has a rate of 1 in 3 for them
So yes I think they will be a bit better against Latvia & Armenia and I think we have to expect them to win both. Problem is for them they can't afford to draw either really so the pressure is on, and that might even things out a bit particularly in the Latvia game which is away
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Post by allezlesrouges on Oct 20, 2023 12:19:17 GMT
For those that are interested in expected goals data (xG), here are our xG results from the campaign so far
Croatia 1.75 - 0.64 Cymru
Cymru 1.31 - 0.74 Latvia
Cymru 2.12 - 1.21 Armenia
Turkey 1.71 - 0.34 Cymru
Latvia 1.25 - 2.58 Cymru
Cymru 1.05 - 1.32 Croatia
What this means is according to the expected goals the results should have approximately been
Croatia 1-0 Cymru
Cymru 1-0 Latvia
Cymru 2-1 Armenia
Turkey 1-0 Cymru
Latvia 1-2 Cymru
Cymru 1-1 Croatia
Which would have us on 10 points! And we'd also have had to win our final 2 matches in this scenario, however, it would be Turkey missing out at our expense if we beat them instead of Croatia. I think most would agree the way it actually played out is preferable!
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Post by pclaude on Oct 20, 2023 14:10:46 GMT
For those that are interested in expected goals data (xG), here are our xG results from the campaign so far Croatia 1.75 - 0.64 Cymru Cymru 1.31 - 0.74 Latvia Cymru 2.12 - 1.21 Armenia Turkey 1.71 - 0.34 Cymru Latvia 1.25 - 2.58 Cymru Cymru 1.05 - 1.32 Croatia What this means is according to the expected goals the results should have approximately been Croatia 1-0 Cymru Cymru 1-0 Latvia Cymru 2-1 Armenia Turkey 1-0 Cymru Latvia 1-2 Cymru Cymru 1-1 Croatia Which would have us on 10 points! And we'd also have had to win our final 2 matches in this scenario, however, it would be Turkey missing out at our expense if we beat them instead of Croatia. I think most would agree the way it actually played out is preferable! I am amazed at that last one. My recollection is that their second shot was only immediately prior to our second goal. I dont remember them creating very much at all even in the last 15-20 minutes. |
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Post by pclaude on Oct 20, 2023 14:12:04 GMT
If we finish second, Croatia would have dropped points to Armenia and/or Latvia I'd love if Latvia could help us along a bit. Latvia and us win on the Saturday, we qualify. |
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Post by morg on Oct 20, 2023 14:36:18 GMT
For those that are interested in expected goals data (xG), here are our xG results from the campaign so far Croatia 1.75 - 0.64 Cymru Cymru 1.31 - 0.74 Latvia Cymru 2.12 - 1.21 Armenia Turkey 1.71 - 0.34 Cymru Latvia 1.25 - 2.58 Cymru Cymru 1.05 - 1.32 Croatia What this means is according to the expected goals the results should have approximately been Croatia 1-0 Cymru Cymru 1-0 Latvia Cymru 2-1 Armenia Turkey 1-0 Cymru Latvia 1-2 Cymru Cymru 1-1 Croatia Which would have us on 10 points! And we'd also have had to win our final 2 matches in this scenario, however, it would be Turkey missing out at our expense if we beat them instead of Croatia. I think most would agree the way it actually played out is preferable! Scratching my head to think of the really good chance they had? Is it possible that neither of our goals were our best chances of scoring? Maybe Neco's effort in the first half? Sorry I've probably got a very flawed understanding of what xg is about! |
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Post by welshrover on Oct 20, 2023 14:38:57 GMT
For those that are interested in expected goals data (xG), here are our xG results from the campaign so far Croatia 1.75 - 0.64 Cymru Cymru 1.31 - 0.74 Latvia Cymru 2.12 - 1.21 Armenia Turkey 1.71 - 0.34 Cymru Latvia 1.25 - 2.58 Cymru Cymru 1.05 - 1.32 Croatia What this means is according to the expected goals the results should have approximately been Croatia 1-0 Cymru Cymru 1-0 Latvia Cymru 2-1 Armenia Turkey 1-0 Cymru Latvia 1-2 Cymru Cymru 1-1 Croatia Which would have us on 10 points! And we'd also have had to win our final 2 matches in this scenario, however, it would be Turkey missing out at our expense if we beat them instead of Croatia. I think most would agree the way it actually played out is preferable! Scratching my head to think of the really good chance they had? Is it possible that neither of our goals were our best chances of scoring? Maybe Neco's effort in the first half? The centre forward had a free header in the first half but got well under the ball and it went tamely over the bar. Can't think of much else. |
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Post by ddirpytnop on Oct 20, 2023 17:36:47 GMT
Scratching my head to think of the really good chance they had? Is it possible that neither of our goals were our best chances of scoring? Maybe Neco's effort in the first half? The centre forward had a free header in the first half but got well under the ball and it went tamely over the bar. Can't think of much else. Was it a free header? Not sure I have seen it back but my impression at the time was that he was under a lot of pressure from one of our centre backs (Rodon probably) and the ball was too high for him to get a header on target. Assuming of course that is the same incident. More generally, I'm rather sceptical about the quoted ratios. We should have been two or three goals up against Latvia away before the'd even even put together a meaningful attack, let alone created a decent chance. I felt the final scoreline flattered them. |
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Post by winsumluzsum on Oct 21, 2023 20:13:15 GMT
The expected goals win for us against Armenia emphasises just how clinical Armenia were on the night. They scored all 4 of their shots on target. They will struggle to repeat that at home.
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Post by winsumluzsum on Oct 21, 2023 20:33:52 GMT
For those that are interested in expected goals data (xG), here are our xG results from the campaign so far Croatia 1.75 - 0.64 Cymru Cymru 1.31 - 0.74 Latvia Cymru 2.12 - 1.21 Armenia Turkey 1.71 - 0.34 Cymru Latvia 1.25 - 2.58 Cymru Cymru 1.05 - 1.32 Croatia What this means is according to the expected goals the results should have approximately been Croatia 1-0 Cymru Cymru 1-0 Latvia Cymru 2-1 Armenia Turkey 1-0 Cymru Latvia 1-2 Cymru Cymru 1-1 Croatia Which would have us on 10 points! And we'd also have had to win our final 2 matches in this scenario, however, it would be Turkey missing out at our expense if we beat them instead of Croatia. I think most would agree the way it actually played out is preferable! Where did you get those stats from out of interest? |
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Post by conwy10 on Oct 23, 2023 21:12:08 GMT
I'm happy for you that you're pleased with him. People are probably moaning because theres some labelling him a messiah based on one result. Have a look back at my posts, I said straight after the match I was delighted for him to get the win. But now people are talking about the system working, we're in the driving seat, we've turned a corner and I think I have to try to make a case for people to come back down to earth. We have 2 games left, probably need to win both, against the 2 teams we haven't beaten in this group. One has won the group, the other ripped us to pieces every time they came forward. That's not the argument. If you look at it purely from an expected results/points perspective, then the Armenia result has been cancelled out. We dropped 3 expected points against them, but gained 4 against Croatia. Going into the final two games with it all in our hands an all to play against the 3rd and 4th seeds for is a good situation to be in. If we don't do it it will be disappointing, but it won't be because of the Latvia result. In terms of points, we are about where we would hope to be. I dare say it's unlikely that the team and Page would have been as fired up for the Croatia game if it wasn't for the pressure following the Armenia result, so there's a very good chance we wouldn't have beaten Croatia had we not lost to Armenia. Again I don't get the logic of the Armenia result firing us up. You can say the league position or the circumstances of the match that could be valid. Do people really think that Page was saying to the players to right the wrong of the Armenia result. I don't believe the Armenia result has been evened out yet. If we want to qualify we need to expect to beat the teams below us in the group and take the others against the better teams as a free hit, get whatever we can out of them. If its a draw or a win against the top seeds that's fantastic. |
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Post by allezlesrouges on Oct 25, 2023 15:37:51 GMT
For those that are interested in expected goals data (xG), here are our xG results from the campaign so far Croatia 1.75 - 0.64 Cymru Cymru 1.31 - 0.74 Latvia Cymru 2.12 - 1.21 Armenia Turkey 1.71 - 0.34 Cymru Latvia 1.25 - 2.58 Cymru Cymru 1.05 - 1.32 Croatia What this means is according to the expected goals the results should have approximately been Croatia 1-0 Cymru Cymru 1-0 Latvia Cymru 2-1 Armenia Turkey 1-0 Cymru Latvia 1-2 Cymru Cymru 1-1 Croatia Which would have us on 10 points! And we'd also have had to win our final 2 matches in this scenario, however, it would be Turkey missing out at our expense if we beat them instead of Croatia. I think most would agree the way it actually played out is preferable! I am amazed at that last one. My recollection is that their second shot was only immediately prior to our second goal. I dont remember them creating very much at all even in the last 15-20 minutes. I was surprised too, although it's down to the fact that neither of Wilson's goals had a particularly high xG (around 70% chance for the first goal and 30% for the second if I'm estimating correctly), and if you think about it we didn't really create anything clear cut aside from that. We looked dangerous, and had some shots from the edge of the box like Neco did, but nothing that would count as a high xG chance Croatia's xG being higher than ours was a result of their 1v1 chance that led to the corner (which was offside), and the goal they did score, which was a tap in and therefore had high xG Most onlookers would say we deserved to win despite the lower xG and that does sort of show the limitation to xG, but the fact xG puts us on 10 points shows there is some accuracy to it |
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Post by allezlesrouges on Oct 25, 2023 15:38:54 GMT
For those that are interested in expected goals data (xG), here are our xG results from the campaign so far Croatia 1.75 - 0.64 Cymru Cymru 1.31 - 0.74 Latvia Cymru 2.12 - 1.21 Armenia Turkey 1.71 - 0.34 Cymru Latvia 1.25 - 2.58 Cymru Cymru 1.05 - 1.32 Croatia What this means is according to the expected goals the results should have approximately been Croatia 1-0 Cymru Cymru 1-0 Latvia Cymru 2-1 Armenia Turkey 1-0 Cymru Latvia 1-2 Cymru Cymru 1-1 Croatia Which would have us on 10 points! And we'd also have had to win our final 2 matches in this scenario, however, it would be Turkey missing out at our expense if we beat them instead of Croatia. I think most would agree the way it actually played out is preferable! Scratching my head to think of the really good chance they had? Is it possible that neither of our goals were our best chances of scoring? Maybe Neco's effort in the first half? Sorry I've probably got a very flawed understanding of what xg is about! You're spot on. Neither of our goals were high xG chance, Wilson's first was the highest, and aside from that we had Neco's shot (low xG) and not much else clear cut |
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Post by allezlesrouges on Oct 25, 2023 15:42:02 GMT
For those that are interested in expected goals data (xG), here are our xG results from the campaign so far Croatia 1.75 - 0.64 Cymru Cymru 1.31 - 0.74 Latvia Cymru 2.12 - 1.21 Armenia Turkey 1.71 - 0.34 Cymru Latvia 1.25 - 2.58 Cymru Cymru 1.05 - 1.32 Croatia What this means is according to the expected goals the results should have approximately been Croatia 1-0 Cymru Cymru 1-0 Latvia Cymru 2-1 Armenia Turkey 1-0 Cymru Latvia 1-2 Cymru Cymru 1-1 Croatia Which would have us on 10 points! And we'd also have had to win our final 2 matches in this scenario, however, it would be Turkey missing out at our expense if we beat them instead of Croatia. I think most would agree the way it actually played out is preferable! Where did you get those stats from out of interest? |
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Post by winsumluzsum on Oct 25, 2023 16:53:18 GMT
Thanks for that.
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lovely to see. 
